金融约束指数研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 11:18

本文选题：金融约束 + 指数　；参考：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：资金是经济的血液,金融是经济的心脏,金融在经济发展过程扮演着极为重要的角角色,一国金融水平的高低往往决定着其经济发展层次的高低。金融制度是从宏观制度层面对资金融通的形式、速度、效率等方面的顶层设计。本文从金融制度演变与经济发展关系研究的角度出发,深入探讨了金融约束论产生的背景。本文依据中国经济发展的具体实际情况,深入解读了中国三十多年经济金融改革的过程、特点、效果及背后的原因,认为中国政府实行的金融制度实质上就是金融约束制度。从当前中国经济发展的情况来看,全面金融自由化理论和金融抑制理论的主张均不符合中国经济发展的实际需要,而金融约束理论是介于金融抑制与全面金融自由化之间更加温和的第三条道路,应该更加适应经济发展处于特殊过渡阶段的中国。为了更加确切地理解金融约束政策对中国经济发展所起的作用,本文希望研究出一个能全面深刻反映金融约束政策执行程度的指标,然后再对其展开与中国经济密切相关指标的比较分析。于是文章通过深入挖掘金融约束理论的核心要素、作用原理、政策主张、政策实施条件及理论上的作用效果,将金融约束理论的核心内涵理解清楚。在此基础上本文设计了一套相对完整的金融约束评价指标体系,并通过构建隶属函数,运用主成分分析法,使用SPSS 22.0软件进行计算,最终得到中国2001年-2015年的金融约束指数。然后将金融约束指数分别与同时期的中国经济景气指数、中国国内生产总值增长率及中国人均可支配收入增长率三个与中国经济发展高度相关的经济数据指标进行对比分析研究。结果发现金融约束指数与三大经济相关数据存在高度相关性,且相关性均经过了一个由正转负的过程,这也从一个侧面验证了本文设计出的金融约束指数的有效性。最后根据前述分析提出了改善金融约束政策,使之对经济产生更持续促进作用的对策和建议。本文通过对金融约束理论的全方位深刻解读,抓住了金融约束论的思想内涵,进一步完善了金融约束政策执行程度的评价体系。本文首次将货币乘数(MM)和间接融资比率(IFR)纳入金融约束评价体系,拓展了对金融约束评价指标的研究范畴。同时本文综合前人对金融自由化指数的研究方法,采用更加贴近金融约束政策实施的实际经济数据来计算金融约束指数,是对金融约束领域在研究方法上的新探索。
[Abstract]:Capital is the blood of economy and finance is the heart of economy. Finance plays an important role in the process of economic development. The financial level of a country often determines the level of its economic development. Financial system is the top-level design of the form, speed and efficiency of capital financing from the macro level. From the point of view of the relationship between the evolution of financial system and economic development, this paper probes into the background of the emergence of financial constraint theory. Based on the actual situation of China's economic development, this paper deeply interprets the process, characteristics, effects and reasons behind the economic and financial reform in China for more than 30 years, and holds that the financial system implemented by the Chinese government is essentially a financial restraint system. Judging from the current situation of China's economic development, both the theory of comprehensive financial liberalization and the theory of financial repression do not meet the actual needs of China's economic development. The theory of financial constraint is a more moderate third way between financial restraint and overall financial liberalization, which should be more suitable for China, where the economic development is in a special transition stage. In order to understand more accurately the effect of financial restraint policy on China's economic development, this paper hopes to develop an index that can comprehensively and profoundly reflect the degree of implementation of financial restraint policy. And then to its development and China's economic indicators closely related to the comparative analysis. Therefore, by digging into the core elements of financial constraint theory, the principle of action, the policy proposition, the conditions of policy implementation and the effect of the theory, the paper makes a clear understanding of the core connotation of the financial constraint theory. On this basis, this paper designs a set of relatively complete financial constraint evaluation index system, and through the construction of membership function, using principal component analysis, using SPSS 22.0 software to calculate, finally get the financial constraint index of China from 2001 to 2015. And then the financial constraint index and the economic boom index of China in the same period, The growth rate of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and the growth rate of China's per capita disposable income are compared and analyzed with three indicators of economic data that are highly related to China's economic development. The results show that there is a high correlation between the financial constraint index and the three economic data, and the correlation has gone through a process of positive to negative, which also verifies the validity of the financial constraint index designed in this paper. Finally, according to the above analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the financial restraint policy and make it more sustainable to promote the economy. Based on the comprehensive and profound interpretation of the theory of financial constraint, this paper grasps the ideological connotation of the theory of financial constraint and further improves the evaluation system of the degree of implementation of the policy of financial constraint. In this paper, the monetary multiplier (MMM) and the indirect financing ratio (IFR) are introduced into the financial constraint evaluation system for the first time, which extends the scope of the research on the evaluation index of financial constraint. At the same time, this paper synthesizes the previous research methods of financial liberalization index, and uses the actual economic data which is closer to the implementation of financial restraint policy to calculate the financial constraint index, which is a new exploration on the research methods in the field of financial constraint.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;F832

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