厦门构建区域性消费中心的路径与政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 16:35

本文选题：厦门市 + 消费城市　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：处于改革开放前沿的厦门经济特区正面临着经济增长方式转型的迫切要求。构建区域性消费中心,有利于优化产业结构,提高经济效率,是实现经济增长方式转型的重要途径。本文首先梳理了消费城市理论和消费环境理论的相关文献,发现未来的城市发展取决于城市在消费方面所扮演的角色。其中,“消费型城市”竞争力最强、发展前景最佳,这是由于消费产业使它们能够抵御经济波动。其次,结合厦门实际消费情况,利用SWOT分析法分析厦门构建区域性消费中心的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁。然后,利用社会消费品零售总额、人均零售额、人均生产总值和城镇居民人均可支配收入四个指标建立衡量实力消费城市的科学指标体系分析海西20个城市,并将厦门的消费实力与其他19个城市进行比较,发现厦门四个指标配合突出,综合排名第一位,最具成为区域性消费中心的实力和可能性。接着,以厦门市1998-2012年的数据,用非线性模型对影响厦门消费需求的因素进行实证研究。为保证模型结果的准确性和有效性,先后进行了单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正检验等。实证检验表明模型整体显著。结果表明消费需求与地区生产总值、城镇居民人均可支配收入均存在长期协整关系,并且受两者短期波动影响显著；而与全社会固定资产投资、旅客数量虽然存在长期协整关系,但受两者短期波动影响不显著。最后,针对研究分析,提出厦门构建区域性消费中心的路径与政策选择。
[Abstract]:Xiamen Special Economic Zone, which is at the forefront of reform and opening up, is facing the urgent need of the transformation of economic growth mode. The construction of regional consumption center is beneficial to optimize industrial structure and improve economic efficiency. It is an important way to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. This paper first combs the relevant literature of the consumption city theory and the consumption environment theory, and finds that the future urban development depends on the role of the city in the consumption. Among them, "consumer cities" are the most competitive and have the best development prospects, because consumer industries enable them to withstand economic fluctuations. Secondly, according to the actual consumption in Xiamen, this paper analyzes the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of constructing regional consumption center in Xiamen by using SWOT analysis method. Then, using the four indexes of total retail sales of social consumer goods, per capita retail sales, per capita gross domestic product and per capita disposable income of urban residents, a scientific index system to measure the strength of consumer cities is established to analyze 20 cities in Hercynian. Comparing Xiamen's consumption strength with the other 19 cities, it is found that Xiamen's four indexes are outstanding and ranked first, and it is the most powerful and possible for Xiamen to become a regional consumption center. Then, based on the data of Xiamen from 1998 to 2012, the nonlinear model is used to study the factors that affect the consumption demand in Xiamen. In order to ensure the accuracy and validity of the model results, the unit root test, cointegration test and error correction test were carried out successively. Empirical test shows that the model is significant. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between consumption demand and regional gross domestic product and per capita disposable income of urban residents, which is significantly affected by the short-term fluctuations of both, and with the fixed asset investment of the whole society. Although there is a long-term cointegration relationship, the number of passengers is not significantly affected by both short-term fluctuations. Finally, in view of the research analysis, puts forward the Xiamen construction regional consumption center path and the policy choice.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】