中国居民消费升级的产业结构效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 08:28

本文选题：消费升级 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：后金融危机时代,全球经济持续疲软,多个欧洲国家主权债务危机频频爆发,世界性贸易保护主义愈演愈烈,人口红利以及优先发展出口、以外需带动经济增长的政策作用逐渐弱化,这一切都预示着今后我国经济增长方式必然由外向型向内向型转变,国内消费势必主导我国未来经济的增长。在这种特殊的时代背景下,国家“十二五”规划明确提出,促进居民消费升级,加快产业结构调整。消费升级和产业结构调整间存在很强的关联性。在供给主导的经济中,产业结构发展水平决定了消费结构状况；在需求主导的经济中,消费升级决定了产业结构的升级。从生产-交换-消费的角度看,消费才是生产的最终目的,消费反作用于生产,决定了产业结构的调整。那么如何以消费升级引导产业结构调整,对构建消费驱动经济发展的国家,具有重要的理论和现实意义。为此,本文通过文献分析和比较分析,综合消费经济、产业经济、生态学、高级宏观经济和计量经济等理论与方法,对消费升级理论、产业结构升级理论进行了综述,并分析了居民消费升级对产业结构升级的影响机制；通过引入多部门产业增长模型,构建了居民消费升级的产业结构水平效应方程和结构效应方程；通过对消费升级的水平效应和结构效应进行实证分析得出：城乡居民消费的水平效应和结构效应有显著差异,农村居民消费的水平效应较显著,城镇居民消费的结构效应较显著；在八大类消费中,城镇教育文化娱乐、交通通信的产业结构效应大于其他类消费品的效应,农村的交通通信、居住的产业结构效应大于其他类消费品的效应。因而,本文认为：应该提高消费意愿和消费能力,优化消费环境,扩大居民消费需求；加大第三产业发展,结合消费升级的方向调整产业结构升级；协同消费政策和产业结构调整政策,实现消费升级和产业结构升级的良性互动。
[Abstract]:In the post-financial crisis era, the global economy continued to weaken, the sovereign debt crisis of many European countries broke out frequently, the world trade protectionism intensified, the demographic dividend and the priority to develop exports. The policy function of promoting economic growth by external demand gradually weakens, all of which indicate that the mode of economic growth in our country will inevitably change from extroverted to introverted in the future, and domestic consumption will certainly dominate the future economic growth of our country. In this special background of the times, the state's 12th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to promote the upgrading of residents' consumption and to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure. There is a strong correlation between consumption upgrading and industrial structure adjustment. In the supply-led economy, the development level of industrial structure determines the situation of consumption structure, and in the demand-led economy, consumption upgrading determines the upgrading of industrial structure. From the point of view of production-exchange-consumption, consumption is the ultimate goal of production. Consumption reacts on production and determines the adjustment of industrial structure. So how to guide the adjustment of industrial structure by consumption upgrading is of great theoretical and practical significance to the construction of a consumption-driven country. Therefore, through literature analysis and comparative analysis, this paper synthesizes the theories and methods of consumption economy, industrial economy, ecology, advanced macroeconomics and econometrics, and summarizes the theories of consumption upgrading and industrial structure upgrading. By introducing the multi-sector industrial growth model, the horizontal effect equation and structural effect equation of industrial structure are established. Through the empirical analysis of the horizontal and structural effects of consumption upgrading, it is concluded that there are significant differences in the horizontal and structural effects of consumption between urban and rural residents, while the horizontal effects of consumption in rural areas are more significant. Among the eight types of consumption, the industrial structure effect of urban education, culture, entertainment, transportation and communication is greater than that of other consumer goods. The effect of residential industrial structure is greater than that of other kinds of consumer goods. Therefore, this paper holds that: we should improve consumption will and consumption ability, optimize the consumption environment, expand the consumption demand of residents, increase the development of the tertiary industry, and adjust the industrial structure upgrading in combination with the direction of consumption upgrading. Coordinate consumption policy and industrial structure adjustment policy, realize the benign interaction of consumption upgrade and industrial structure upgrade.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F126.1

【参考文献】