甘肃城镇化与产业结构互动关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 00:43

本文选题：城镇化 + 产业结构　；参考：《西北师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：城镇化与产业结构是经济社会发展过程中重要的两种经济现象，它们是区域经济发展过程中的重要组成部分，两者之间是相伴相随。一方面，产业结构的优化升级增强了城镇的发展能力同时也是现代城镇化的重要推动力；另一方面，产业结构的优化升级离不开城镇的空间延伸以及其职能体系等城镇化诸多方面的空间支撑。2007年由美国的次贷危机引发的全球金融危机对我国的出口造成重大的影响，同时使我国面临经济增长趋缓和就业形势严峻的双重压力。在这样的背景下，加快经济转型显得尤为迫切，应对此次危机的有效对策之一就是加快产业结构调整和推进城镇化稳步有序的发展，这也是甘肃未来经济发展的重要保障。改革开放以来甘肃城镇化取得了较快的发展，城镇化率由1978年的14.41%提升到2012年的38.75%。同时产业结构也处于不断优化升级中，三次产业产值比重由1978年的“二一三”格局调整到2012年的“二三一”格局，二三产业就业比重之和由1978年的19.79%提高到2012年的39.55%。但是和全国平均水平相比，不论是城镇化水平还是产业结构方面均存在较大差距，，一方面城镇化率低于全国平均水平13.82%；另一方面第一产业就业比重严重过高，第二产业内部轻重工业比例失调，第三产业发展相对滞后，已经制约甘肃经济的持续健康发展。因此，通过对甘肃城镇化与产业结构之间的互动关系研究，探讨两者之间的互动规律，可以对甘肃城镇化有序发展和产业结构调整提供建议，进而推动甘肃经济的进一步发展。本文主要以文献综述、统计描述和计量分析的方法，对甘肃城镇化与产业结构互动关系进行深入研究。首先，对城镇化与产业结构相关文献进行了系统的梳理；然后通过一般统计描述对甘肃城镇化现状及特征和产业结构演变及特征进行分析。在此基础上，对城镇化发展与产业结构演变的互动关系进行了理论分析，表明第一产业是城镇化发展的基础动力，第二产业发展是城镇化发展的核心动力，第三产业发展是城镇化的持续动力，同时城镇化也是产业结构优化升级的重要保障；再次，选取甘肃1983-2012年城镇化率和三次产业产值比重以及就业比重为指标，基于VAR模型进行实证分析，从实证角度分析了甘肃城镇化与产业结构互动关系，实证结果表明甘肃城镇化与产业结构并未形成理论意义上的良性互动；最后，在全文的分析基础之上，针对甘肃城镇化发展与产业结构优化提出相应的对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and industrial structure are two important economic phenomena in the process of economic and social development. They are important components in the process of regional economic development, and they are concomitant with each other. On the one hand, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure enhances the development ability of cities and towns, and it is also an important driving force for modern urbanization; on the other hand, The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure can not be separated from the spatial extension of cities and towns as well as the spatial support of urbanization and other aspects of urbanization. The global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has had a significant impact on China's exports. At the same time, our country is faced with the double pressure of economic growth to ease the employment situation. Under this background, it is particularly urgent to speed up the economic transformation. One of the effective countermeasures to this crisis is to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and promote the steady and orderly development of urbanization, which is also an important guarantee for the future economic development of Gansu. Since the reform and opening up, Gansu urbanization has made rapid development, the urbanization rate increased from 14.41% in 1978 to 38.75% in 2012. At the same time, the industrial structure is also in the process of continuous optimization and upgrading. The proportion of output value of three industries has been adjusted from "two to three" in 1978 to "two three in one" in 2012, and the sum of employment in secondary and tertiary industries has increased from 19.79% in 1978 to 39.55% in 2012. However, compared with the national average, there is a big gap in both the level of urbanization and the industrial structure. On the one hand, the urbanization rate is lower than the national average of 13.82; on the other hand, the proportion of employment in the primary industry is seriously too high. The imbalance of the proportion of light and heavy industry in the secondary industry and the lag of the development of the tertiary industry have restricted the sustainable and healthy development of Gansu economy. Therefore, through the study of the interactive relationship between urbanization and industrial structure in Gansu Province, the interactive law between them can provide suggestions for the orderly development of urbanization and the adjustment of industrial structure in Gansu Province, and then promote the further development of Gansu economy. In this paper, the interactive relationship between urbanization and industrial structure in Gansu Province is studied by means of literature review, statistical description and econometric analysis. Firstly, the related literature on urbanization and industrial structure is systematically combed, and then the current situation and characteristics of urbanization and the evolution and characteristics of industrial structure in Gansu are analyzed through general statistical description. On this basis, the interactive relationship between the development of urbanization and the evolution of industrial structure is theoretically analyzed, which shows that the primary industry is the basic driving force of urbanization development, and the development of secondary industry is the core power of urbanization development. The development of tertiary industry is the sustainable driving force of urbanization, and urbanization is also an important guarantee for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Thirdly, the urbanization rate, the proportion of tertiary industry output value and the proportion of employment in Gansu Province from 1983 to 2012 are selected as indicators. Based on the empirical analysis of VAR model, this paper analyzes the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure in Gansu Province from the perspective of empirical analysis. The empirical results show that urbanization and industrial structure in Gansu has not formed a positive interaction in the theoretical sense; finally, Based on the analysis of this paper, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the development of urbanization and the optimization of industrial structure in Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.2;F127

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