基于十大分类的中国资本存量重估:1978～2016年

发布时间：2018-05-26 03:39

本文选题：资本存量 + 永续盘存法　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：研究目标:根据最新的统计数据测算我国的资本存量。研究方法:根据我国1978~2016年的相关数据,利用永续盘存法进行测算。研究发现:本文的测算的资本存量要略小于现有文献的结果;我国的资本产出比正处于快速上升阶段。研究创新:使用最新统计数据将资本构成进一步细化为十个大类,分别考虑了每类资本的初始资本存量、折旧率、资本形成额和价格指数,计算得到1978~2016年各类资本存量;在应用几何折旧法时,将折旧率拆解为固定折旧率与可变折旧率两部分,其中可变折旧率与经济增长率正相关,更加贴近实际情况。研究价值:在对已有研究进行深入分析的基础上,采用更为精细的方法和更贴近现实的假设,应用最新的数据,重新估算中国资本存量,得出的研究结果相比过去的研究更加可靠。研究结果对今后的基础研究具有重要借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Research objective: calculate the capital stock of our country according to the latest statistical data. Methods: according to the relevant data from 1978 to 2016 in China, the method of perpetual inventory was used to calculate. It is found that the capital stock measured in this paper is slightly smaller than that of the existing literature, and the capital output ratio in China is rising rapidly. Research and innovation: using the latest statistical data to further refine the capital composition into ten categories, taking into account the initial capital stock, depreciation rate, capital formation amount and price index of each type of capital, the capital stock from 1978 to 2016 is calculated. In the application of geometric depreciation method, the depreciation rate is broken down into two parts: fixed depreciation rate and variable depreciation rate, in which the variable depreciation rate is positively related to the economic growth rate, which is closer to the actual situation. Research value: on the basis of in-depth analysis of existing research, using more sophisticated methods and more realistic assumptions, using the latest data to reestimate China's capital stock. The results are more reliable than previous studies. The results are of great significance for future basic research.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学统计学院;国家统计局国民经济核算司;国家统计局综合统计司;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国中长期经济增长动力研究”(14AZD020) 国家社科基金重大项目“转型发展新阶段中国经济增长动力研究”(14ZDB120)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F124;F224

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