债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应

发布时间：2018-05-31 13:28

本文选题：地方债务 + 经济增长　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：研究目标:中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法:基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现:中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应:当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新:引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值:对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Objective: the threshold effect of local government debt on economic growth in China. Research methods: from the perspective of debt ratio, that is, the ratio of debt stock to local government's comprehensive financial resources, this paper makes an empirical study on the economic growth effect of local debt based on the local debt balance data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to the end of 2014. It is found that the local debt in China has obvious economic growth threshold effect: when the debt ratio is higher than 112%, the originally positive and significant economic growth promoting effect approaches to zero, but its function channel can be as follows: The high debt rate puts pressure on local governments to pay down debt, thus affecting economic development-oriented fiscal spending. Research and innovation: this paper introduces debt ratio index and analyzes the mechanism of local debt on economic growth from the perspective of debt service pressure. Research value: it has important reference value for local government debt management and risk prevention.
【作者单位】：青岛理工大学经贸学院;
【基金】：2016年教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“债务置换下地方政府债务风险的再评估与防范:基于偿债策略设计的视角”(16YJC790015)的资助
【分类号】：F124;F224;F812.5

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