重构“稳增长”与“防风险”双底线的宏观调控体系——2016年~2017宏观经济分析与预测

发布时间：2018-06-01 03:35

本文选题：债务风险 + 稳增长防风险　；参考：《宏观经济管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：综合考虑全年的情况,根据模型预测,2016年我国GDP增长约6.7%,CPI增长2%左右。2017年将是我国经济持续筑底的一年,GDP增速有望增长6.5%,CPI增长2.1%。针对下行压力和债务的结构性风险进一步凸显等问题,需要重新构建"稳增长"与"防风险"双底线下的宏观调控体系。为此,要在"稳增长、守底线"的目标下稳步化解我国债务风险,持续推进债务分类甄别工作,完善国家及各级主体的资产负债表;实现债务转移,中央政府适度加杠杆;根据市场化、法制化原则,适时运用债转股工具,缓释短期债务风险。此外,应持续推进金融改革,持续关注房地产市场态势,防范局部泡沫进一步扩大,房地产调控政策要突出结构性和差异性。
[Abstract]:Considering the situation for the whole year, according to the model, China's GDP growth rate in 2016 is estimated to be about 6.7 percent. 2017 will be the year when China's economy continues to build a bottom, which is expected to increase by 6.5 percent and 2.1 percent, according to the model. In view of such problems as downward pressure and structural risk of debt, it is necessary to rebuild the macro-control system under the double bottom line of "steady growth" and "risk prevention". Therefore, under the goal of "steady growth and keeping the bottom line", we should steadily resolve the debt risk of our country, continue to push forward the work of debt classification and screening, perfect the balance sheet of the country and the main bodies at all levels, realize the debt transfer, the central government should increase the leverage moderately; According to the principle of marketization and legalization, debt to equity instruments should be used to slow down the risk of short-term debt. In addition, we should continue to promote financial reform, pay constant attention to the situation of real estate market, prevent the further expansion of local bubbles, and highlight the structure and difference of real estate regulation and control policies.
【作者单位】：中国诚信信用管理有限公司;中国人民大学;中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院;
【分类号】：F124

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