人口老龄化对产业结构变迁影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 00:12

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 产业结构变迁　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化问题已经成为全球性的问题。按照国际判定老龄化的一般标准(1),从2001年起,我国已经进入了人口老龄化阶段,成为年老型社会。然而产业的发展离不开人口资源的支撑。需求侧,人口老龄化将会改变消费结构,进而使得产品需求结构受到影响,产业的生产者将会根据产品需求的改变调整产业结构,引起产业结构的变迁;供给侧,人口老龄化则会通过劳动力的供给数量、质量以及社会资本储蓄量等方面的改变,影响着劳动力供给数量、劳动力生产效率水平、资金供给量,进而使得产业结构发生变迁。人口老龄化与产业结构的变迁有着密切的关系。在人口老龄化的背景下,如何实现产业结构优化升级是我国面临的亟需解决的问题之一。因此,通过人口老龄化对产业结构变迁影响进行深入探讨分析是十分必要,且具有重要的研究价值。本文运用理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,在产业结构变迁理论的指导下,归纳总结影响产业结构变迁的影响因素,探讨人口老龄化对产业结构变迁的作用机制。在相关理论的指导下,选取2001-2015年全国31个省(直辖市)的相关数据,建立多个动态模型,利用SYS-GMM估计分析,从全国层面和区域层面分别分析人口老龄化对产业结构变迁的影响。结果显示,在人口老龄化冲击下,产业结构合理化与人口老龄化具有负的影响效应,且作用效果显著,说明人口老龄化促进产业结构向合理化方向变迁;在人口老龄化的冲击下,人口老龄化与产业结构高级化具有正的影响效应,且作用结果显著,说明人口老龄化对产业结构高级化起到促进作用,使产业结构向高级化方向变迁;区域差异化研究发现,东部、中部地区人口老龄化与产业结构合理化指数有负的影响效应,而西部地区人口老龄化与产业结构合理化指数有正的影响效应,这也就说明,东部、中部地区人口老龄化促进产业结构向合理化方向变迁,西部地区阻碍产业结构向合理化方向变迁,原因可能是西部地区进入人口老龄化的时间较短,还不能充分发挥人口老龄化的带动作用;东、中、西部,人口老龄化与产业结构高级化两者皆具有正的影响效应,只是作用效果显著不同。根据上述结果以及在现状分析中发现的问题,考虑到我国人口老龄化大背景下,如何合理调整产业结构是我国国民经济发展的首要问题。本文提出下列建议:(1)做好顶层设计,科学制定产业发展规划;(2)大力发展老龄产业,促进现代服务业发展;(3)加大教育投入,提高人力资本存量;(4)促进劳动力市场流动性,推动区域与城乡就业一体化;(5)推动科技创新,促进产业转型升级。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has become a global problem. According to the general international standard for judging the aging of the population, China has entered the stage of population aging since 2001 and has become an aging society. However, the development of industry can not be separated from the support of population resources. On the demand side, the aging population will change the consumption structure, which will affect the product demand structure, and the industrial producers will adjust the industrial structure according to the change of the product demand, causing the change of the industrial structure; The aging of the population will influence the quantity of labor supply, the level of labor productivity and the amount of capital supply through the changes of supply quantity, quality of labor force and the amount of social capital savings, which will make the industrial structure change. The aging population is closely related to the change of industrial structure. Under the background of aging population, how to realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is one of the problems that our country needs to solve urgently. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the influence of population aging on industrial structure change and has important research value. Under the guidance of the theory of industrial structure change, this paper summarizes the influence factors of industrial structure change, and probes into the mechanism of the aging of population on the industrial structure change by using the research method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. Under the guidance of relevant theories, this paper selects the relevant data of 31 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 2001 to 2015, establishes several dynamic models, and analyzes the effects of population aging on the changes of industrial structure from the national level and the regional level by using SYS-GMM estimation analysis. The results show that under the impact of population aging, the rationalization of industrial structure and the aging of population have negative effects, and the effect is significant, which indicates that the aging of population promotes the change of industrial structure towards rationalization. Under the impact of the aging population, the aging of the population and the advanced industrial structure have a positive effect, and the result is significant, which shows that the aging of the population plays a role in promoting the higher industrial structure and makes the industrial structure change to the higher level. The study of regional differentiation found that the aging of population and the rationalization index of industrial structure in the eastern and central regions have negative effects, while the aging population and the rationalization index of industrial structure in the western region have a positive effect, which means that the eastern part of the region has a negative effect on the aging of population and the rationalization index of industrial structure. The aging of the population in the central region promotes the change of industrial structure towards rationalization, while the western region hinders the transition of industrial structure towards rationalization, which may be due to the short time for the western region to enter the aging population. In the east, the middle and the west, the aging of the population and the advanced industrial structure both have positive effects, but the effects are obviously different. According to the above results and the problems found in the analysis of the present situation, how to adjust the industrial structure reasonably is the primary problem in the development of our national economy, considering the background of aging population in our country. This paper puts forward the following suggestions: to do a good job of top-level design, to make a scientific industrial development plan) to vigorously develop the aging industry, to promote the development of the modern service industry and to increase the investment in education, and to raise the stock of human capital. 4) to promote the mobility of the labour market. Promote regional and urban-rural integration of employment 5) promote scientific and technological innovation, promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F121.3

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