浙江省与江苏省经济发展及驱动因素比较研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 04:14

本文选题：经济发展 + 要素贡献　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,浙江省和江苏省经济发展均取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济增长水平、人民生活水平在全国均名列前茅。但是,近几年在人均GDP、GDP增长率等经济增长指标上,浙江省逐渐失去了原有优势,被江苏超越并且差距逐渐拉大,相对于江苏,浙江的经济增长速度已经在减缓。对于这一现象,已经引起了学者和政府的广泛关注。浙江省和江苏省同属长江三角洲经济圈,位置毗邻,区位优势相近。是什么原因导致浙江经济增长滞后于江苏?浙江和江苏经济发展的根本差异在哪里?本研究希望通过详细的数据对比,深入的实证分析,反映苏浙两省经济发展的演化趋势,揭示苏浙两省经济增长的关键驱动因素,探寻江苏经济快速发展的根本原因,并反思浙江在经济发展中存在的问题,为有关部门制定相关政策提供依据。本研究着重从以下几个方面展开研究。首先,本研究从经济增长水平、人民生活水平、经济发展要素和政府政策支持四个方面,对浙江省和江苏省从2000-2012年的经济发展状况进行了详细的描述和对比分析。其次,本研究测算了苏浙两省消费率、投资率,并基于GDP支出法公式测算了消费、投资和净出口对GDP的拉动率和贡献率,以比较三大需求在苏浙两省经济增长中的贡献大小。再次,本文基于C-D生产函数,利用索罗余值法测算了两省2000-2012年TFP值以及TFP增长率,以此反映科技进步对于经济发展的贡献大小。最后,利用全国30个省市自治区2000-2012年的面板数据,基于扩展的C-D函数,建立面板数据分析模型,估算了资本存量、从业人员、FDI、教育投入和研发投入五项经济发展要素的产出弹性,并测算了各要素对经济发展的贡献率。研究结果表明：近些年浙江省经济增长水平和增长速度确实落后于江苏,但浙江省的产业结构更为合理,浙江省的人民生活水平以及生活保障水平明显高于江苏,政府更为关注民生发展。分析发现,现阶段,浙江省的人力资本水平落后于江苏省,科技进步水平低于江苏省,并且科技进步贡献率的落后可能是浙江省经济增长落后于江苏省的主要原因。同时分析发现,浙江省教育投入强度大、研发活动对于经济发展贡献大,因此浙江未来经济发展潜力会更好。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province have made remarkable achievements in economic development, the level of economic growth, people's living standards are among the highest in the country. However, in recent years, Zhejiang Province has gradually lost its original advantages in terms of per capita GDP growth rate and other economic growth indicators, and has been overtaken by Jiangsu and gradually widened the gap. Compared with Jiangsu, the economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province has been slowing down. For this phenomenon, has aroused the widespread concern of scholars and the government. Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province belong to the Yangtze River Delta economic circle, adjacent location, similar geographical advantages. What is the reason why Zhejiang's economic growth lags behind Jiangsu's? Where is the fundamental difference between Zhejiang and Jiangsu's economic development? This study hopes to reflect the evolution trend of the economic development of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces through detailed data comparison and in-depth empirical analysis, to reveal the key driving factors of the economic growth of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and to explore the fundamental reasons for the rapid economic development of Jiangsu Province. It also reflects on the problems existing in Zhejiang's economic development, and provides the basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies. This study focuses on the following aspects. Firstly, from four aspects of economic growth level, people's standard of living, economic development factors and government policy support, this study makes a detailed description and comparative analysis on the economic development of Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2012. Secondly, the paper calculates the consumption rate and investment rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and calculates the pulling rate and contribution rate of consumption, investment and net export to GDP based on the formula of GDP expenditure method, in order to compare the contribution of the three major demands in the economic growth of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Thirdly, based on the C-D production function, this paper calculates the TFP value and the TFP growth rate of the two provinces from 2000 to 2012 by using the Solow residual value method, so as to reflect the contribution of scientific and technological progress to economic development. Finally, using the panel data of 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2012, based on the extended C-D function, the panel data analysis model is established, and the capital stock is estimated. The output elasticity of five elements of economic development in education input and R & D investment is calculated and the contribution rate of each factor to economic development is calculated. The results show that the economic growth level and growth rate of Zhejiang Province lag behind Jiangsu Province in recent years, but the industrial structure of Zhejiang Province is more reasonable. The living standard and living security level of Zhejiang Province are obviously higher than those of Jiangsu Province. The government pays more attention to the development of people's livelihood. It is found that the level of human capital in Zhejiang Province lags behind that of Jiangsu Province, and the level of scientific and technological progress is lower than that of Jiangsu Province, and the backward contribution rate of scientific and technological progress may be the main reason for Zhejiang's economic growth lagging behind that of Jiangsu Province. At the same time, it is found that Zhejiang province has a great investment in education and great contribution to economic development, so Zhejiang will have better economic development potential in the future.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】