山东省进出口贸易对省内经济的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-07 01:07

本文选题：进出口贸易 + 典型相关分析　；参考：《曲阜师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进出口贸易亦称国外贸易或对外贸易,是指一个国家或地区与另一个国家或地区之间的商品、劳务和技术的交换活动.山东省作为一个贸易大省,在经济全球化的趋势中,凭借其优越的地理位置,在对外贸易合作中取得了明显的成果.如何使对外贸易进一步促进山东省的经济发展成为当务之急.本文主要选取山东省28年以来的经济数据,采用典型相关分析、单位根检验、协整检验等方法对山东省经济和对外贸易进行研究,并且根据贸易额和山东省GDP建立误差修正模型.在分析山东省的贸易现状方面,本文根据历年数据,发现在2009年之前,贸易额保持增长,由于次贷危机的影响,贸易额在2009年出现明显的下降,随着经济政策的出台使得贸易额增长速度有所增加.根据各个地区的饼图可以发现山东省各个地区的贸易发展极不平衡,尤其是半岛地区的贸易比重高达77.6%,但是鲁西地区的贸易比重仅为3.35%.另一方面也说明各个地区的贸易还有很大的发展空间.在方法研究方面,首先,利用典型相关分析,研究四大贸易方式与三大产业之间的关系,得出一般贸易对第三产业的作用最大;然后,对经济和总贸易额、进口贸易额、出口贸易额进行单位根检验,得出虽然四者都为非平稳序列,但是进行二阶差分之后,差分序列均为平稳序列;其次,为了消除伪回归,上述变量进行协整检验,发现GDP与总贸易额、进口贸易额、出口贸易额存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系;最后,为了反应短期波动关系,建立误差修正模型.针对这些研究结果,本文就贸易和经济之间的关系提出了相应的措施.
[Abstract]:Import and export trade, also known as foreign trade or foreign trade, refers to the exchange of goods, services and technologies between one country or region and another. As a big trade province, Shandong Province has made remarkable achievements in foreign trade cooperation with its superior geographical position in the trend of economic globalization. How to make foreign trade further promote the economic development of Shandong Province has become a top priority. This paper mainly selects the economic data of Shandong Province for 28 years, uses the methods of canonical correlation analysis, unit root test and cointegration test to study Shandong's economy and foreign trade. And according to the volume of trade and Shandong Province GDP error correction model is established. In the analysis of the current situation of trade in Shandong Province, according to the data of the past years, we find that the volume of trade has maintained growth before 2009, because of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the volume of trade in 2009 has shown a significant decline. With the introduction of economic policies, the growth rate of trade volume has increased. According to the pie chart of each region, it can be found that the trade development of each region in Shandong Province is very unbalanced, especially in the Peninsula area, the proportion of trade is as high as 77.6, but the proportion of trade in the west of Shandong is only 3.35. On the other hand, it also shows that there is still a lot of room for development of trade in various regions. In the aspect of method research, firstly, by using canonical correlation analysis, we study the relationship between the four major trade modes and the three major industries, and draw the conclusion that the general trade plays the most important role in the tertiary industry; then, to the economy and the total trade volume, the import trade volume, The unit root test of export trade volume shows that although all the four are non-stationary series, the difference sequences are all stationary after the second order difference. Secondly, in order to eliminate the pseudo-regression, the above variables are cointegrated test. It is found that there is a cointegration relationship between GDP and total trade volume, import trade volume and export trade volume, that is, long-term equilibrium relationship. Finally, in order to reflect the short-term fluctuation relationship, an error correction model is established. In view of these results, this paper puts forward the corresponding measures on the relationship between trade and economy.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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