北京市城镇居民消费的定量研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 19:01

本文选题：可支配收入 + 消费性支出　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来，我国经济高速持续增长，经济结构也在不断的变化。当前,出口、消费和投资等几大因素成为了拉动国民经济继续增长的关键。然而，，对于我国经济增长的作用，这三者并不是相同的。经过实践证明，内需驱动型经济增长模式是保持经济健康稳定增长的战略性途径。而处理好投资和消费两种拉动内需关键因素之间的关系是该种经济增长模式的关键。对于内需驱动型经济增长的两个重要的因素投资和消费来说，作用更为显著的是消费这个因素。当前来说，内需不足也将成为未来制约我国经济发展的一大问题。而推动经济增长的根本动力就是消费的增长。作为我国文化经济中心的北京，其经济发展水平处于我国的前列。北京市居民也成为了中国的一个特殊的消费群体，其消费模式、消费行为和消费结构具有许多突出的特点：相对于落后地区的示范性和相对于发达地区的代表性。所以，对于北京城镇居民的消费的研究，不仅对北京城镇居民消费水平有一定的提高作用，也可以对我国相对落后地区消费水平作出示范。因此，对北京城镇居民的消费的研究对我国经济的良好稳定增长具有重大的现实意义。首先本文先对宏观经济数据进行分析，对北京市城镇居民的消费的水平和消费结构的现状及变化趋势进行描述性分析。然后，在描述性分析的基础上，本文将以绝对收入假说为基本模型，建立北京市城镇居民的误差修正模型，探讨收入与消费之间的关系。在消费结构研究分析方面，本文利用年北京市城镇居民消费的截面数据建立扩展线性支出模型（ELES）,接着通过对面板数据的研究，建立Pandel data模型，研究时间效应和收入效应对消费结构的影响。经过本文研究发现，北京作为中国发展的样板性城市，城镇居民已经先于许多城市的居民摆脱了贫困，经历了小康阶段，走进了总体富裕。但是人均消费性支出的增速慢于人均可支配收入的增速，收入和消费之间的差距在不断扩大，北京城镇居民的消费结构也在不断的升级，人们在满足物质消费的同时，开始注重精神层次的消费。消费结构也趋于稳定趋势。不同收入等级不同的居民的消费结构差异也是很大的，各有各的特征。而一部分低收入户依然处于贫困状态，他们的基本消费需求还没有完全满足，解决这部分居民的困难是政府需要首要关注的问题。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has been growing at a high speed and its economic structure has been changing. At present, export, consumption and investment and other factors have become the key to the continued growth of the national economy. However, the role of economic growth in China, these three are not the same. Practice has proved that domestic demand-driven economic growth model is a strategic way to maintain healthy and stable economic growth. The key to this kind of economic growth model is to deal with the relationship between investment and consumption. For the two important factors of domestic demand-driven economic growth, investment and consumption, the role of consumption is more significant. At present, insufficient domestic demand will also become a major problem restricting the economic development of our country in the future. As the cultural and economic center of our country, Beijing's economic development level is in the forefront of our country. Beijing residents have also become a special consumer group in China, their consumption patterns, consumption behavior and consumption structure have many outstanding characteristics: the demonstration relative to the backward areas and the representativeness of the developed regions. Therefore, the study on the consumption of Beijing urban residents can not only improve the consumption level of Beijing urban residents to some extent, but also demonstrate the consumption level of the relatively backward areas in China. Therefore, the study on the consumption of urban residents in Beijing is of great practical significance to the good and stable economic growth of our country. The present situation and trend of consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents in Beijing are analyzed in a descriptive way. Then, on the basis of descriptive analysis, this paper takes absolute income hypothesis as the basic model, establishes the error correction model of urban residents in Beijing, and probes into the relationship between income and consumption. In the research and analysis of consumption structure, this paper establishes the extended linear expenditure model by using the cross-section data of urban residents' consumption in Beijing, and then establishes the Pandel data model through the research of panel data. This paper studies the effect of time effect and income effect on the consumption structure. Through the study, it is found that Beijing, as a model city for the development of China, has got rid of poverty and experienced a well-to-do stage before the residents of many cities. Into the overall affluence. However, the per capita consumption expenditure is growing slower than the per capita disposable income, the gap between income and consumption is constantly expanding, the consumption structure of urban residents in Beijing is also constantly upgrading, and people are satisfying material consumption at the same time. Begin to pay attention to the consumption of spiritual level. The consumption structure also tends to be stable. Different income levels of different residents of the consumption structure is also very large, each has its own characteristics. While some low-income households are still in poverty, their basic consumption needs have not been fully met, to solve the difficulties of this part of the residents is the most important issue that the government should pay attention to.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1

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