我国居民信息消费及对经济增长和产业结构影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 11:54

本文选题：信息消费 + 经济增长　；参考：《北京邮电大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：信息技术的进步、信息产业的发展、部分信息产品和服务价格的下降、居民生活水平的提高,这一系列因素促成了信息消费成为我国消费领域的热点问题。在我国经济外需不足、内需增长乏力的背景下,信息消费与经济增长的关系,以及如何在拉动经济总量较快增加的同时,实现产业结构的优化升级,已经成为我国现阶段经济发展的关键问题之一,获得学术界广泛的关注。目前,国际理论界没有与“信息消费”完全对应的概念；国内的理论研究基本上处于概念探讨层面,目前仍然各执一词,尚未达成共识,系统性、深入性的理论成果明显欠缺；实证研究大多属于为现状分析,较少讨论发展趋势,所有研究中都默认信息消费在未来的快速发展,几乎没有定量研究,对其与经济增长互动关系的研究则更为罕见。这不仅影响了信息消费对经济增长的解释能力,而且造成了分析框架的缺失,有鉴于此,构建信息消费的层次结构分析框架,并揭示居民信息消费对于经济增长和产业结构的作用机制,对学术研究和政府决策都具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,论文围绕“为什么”和“怎么样”推动信息消费两个中心问题展开研究。论文从基本概念和构成出发,提出了信息消费的层次结构模型,并以此模型为分析框架,进行了深入细致的定性分析和实证研究。首先,在分析发展现状的基础上,预测了我国居民信息消费的发展趋势；其次,分析了居民信息消费对经济增长的影响机理,并使用多种计量分析方法对我国居民信息消费对经济增长的作用进行了定量分析；最后,研究了居民信息消费影响产业结构的作用机制,并尝试使用投入产出分析方法进行验证。通过上述分析,论文得到了一些有意义的结论：第一,论文提出了信息消费的层次结构模型,从信息内容、信息终端、信息网络、信息软件四个层次研究了居民信息消费及其对相关产业的影响。该模型为居民信息消费的构成提供了理论依据,也为后续章节的研究奠定了理论基础。第二,基于上述模型,论文拟合了2013年至2020年我国居民信息消费的发展趋势,从消费规模、消费结构、消费系数角度预测了未来的变动情况：我国居民城乡信息消费支出将保持快速增长的趋势,年均增长率达9.6%；消费结构将更趋于合理；信息消费系数趋于稳定；城乡消费差距将进一步扩大。第三,论文从直接作用和间接作用两个层面定性研究了居民信息消费对经济增长的影响机理；使用向量自回归模型、分位数模型、面板数据模型等计量方法,从消费总量和消费结构两个角度,基于全国、城乡和地区三个层面,验证了居民信息消费对经济增长的影响具有乘数效应、滞后效应和差异效应。主要结论如下：(1)居民信息消费对经济增长的弹性系数为0.8856,影响显著；这种影响具有滞后效应,随着时间的推移有逐渐扩大的趋势；仅从实际消费额看,两者的关系主要表现为信息消费拉动经济增长,而经济增长并未充分带动信息消费。(2)城镇居民信息消费对经济增长的影响要大于农村,随着经济总量的增加,居民信息消费对经济增长的影响略有减弱。(3)居民信息消费对31个省市的经济增长都有正向影响,但地区之间的差异较大,中西部地区居民信息消费对经济增长的作用整体上大于东部。(4)在消费结构中,教育文化娱乐支出比通讯支出对经济增长的拉动作用更显著；农村通讯和教育文化娱乐支出对经济的拉动作用差距较大,而城镇则较为均衡。通过上述分析,印证了发展居民信息消费的必要性。第四,论文在定性分析居民信息消费与产业结构互动关系的基础上,以城镇为例,利用投入产出模型,依据居民信息消费对相关产业“诱发的增加值”、“生产诱发系数”和“对低能耗部门的诱发效率”三个指标,从三次产业和42个部门两个层面,验证了居民信息消费对产业结构存在优化作用。主要结论如下：(1)居民信息消费对第二产业和第三产业生产的诱发系数较高,说明发展信息消费能提高产业结构优化率；(2)随着信息消费规模的扩大,这种优化作用会越来越好。(3)居民信息消费对产业结构的优化作用比居民消费总体的作用更好。(4)较之通讯支出,教育文化娱乐支出对产业结构优化的效率更高。(5)按对产业结构优化作用从大到小对信息消费细项排序,依次为通讯服务、教育、文教娱乐服务、通讯工具、文教娱乐用品和教材,说明在保持信息消费支出规模不变的情况下,提高诱发效率较高的细项的比重,能更有效地推动产业结构优化。
[Abstract]:The development of information technology , the development of information industry , the decline of some information products and service prices and the improvement of the living standard of the residents have contributed to the hot problems in the consumption field of our country .
At present , the theoretical research at home is basically at the level of concept discussion , and there is still no consensus , systematicness and indepth of theoretical results .
The empirical research mostly belongs to the analysis of the present situation , and the development trend is seldom discussed . The research on the relationship between the information consumption and the economic growth is much more rare . This not only affects the explanation ability of the information consumption to the economic growth , but also causes the lack of the analysis framework , and reveals the mechanism of the residents ' information consumption to the economic growth and the industrial structure , and has important theoretical and practical significance for academic research and government decision - making .

On the basis of summarizing the previous research results , the paper studies the two central issues of " why " and " how " to push the information consumption . From the basic concept and composition , this paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , and makes a detailed qualitative analysis and demonstration research based on this model . First , on the basis of analyzing the present situation of development , this paper forecasts the development trend of information consumption in our country .
Secondly , the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth , and makes quantitative analysis on the effect of information consumption on economic growth in our country .
Finally , the mechanism of influencing the industrial structure of resident information consumption is studied , and the input - output analysis method is tried to validate it . Through the above analysis , some meaningful conclusions are obtained :

First , the paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , from four levels of information content , information terminal , information network and information software to study the influence of resident information consumption and its influence on the related industries . The model provides theoretical basis for the composition of resident information consumption and lays a theoretical foundation for the study of subsequent chapters .

Secondly , on the basis of the above model , the development trend of information consumption in our country from 2013 to 2020 is fitted . From the angle of consumption scale , consumption structure and consumption coefficient , the future changes are predicted : the consumption expenditure of urban and rural information in our country will keep the trend of rapid growth , with annual growth rate reaching 9.6 % ;
Consumption structure will be more reasonable ;
the information consumption coefficient tends to be stable ;
The gap between urban and rural consumption will be expanded further .

Thirdly , the thesis qualitatively studies the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth from two aspects : direct action and indirect effect .
Based on the three aspects of total consumption and consumption structure , the influence of resident information consumption on economic growth has multiplier effect , lag effect and difference effect . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The elastic coefficient of resident information consumption to economic growth is 0.8856 , which has significant impact ;
This effect has a hysteresis effect , and gradually increases with time .
( 2 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth .
The rural communication and educational and cultural entertainment expenditure has a great gap on the economy , while the town is more balanced . Through the above analysis , the necessity of developing resident information consumption is confirmed .

Fourthly , based on the analysis of the relationship between the consumption of information and industrial structure of the residents , the paper demonstrates the optimization of the industrial structure from the three industries and 42 sectors by using the input - output model , based on the three indexes of the " added value " , " production - induced coefficient " and " induced efficiency of the low - energy - energy sector " . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The consumption of resident information is higher than that of the second industry and the third industry , indicating that the development information consumption can improve the optimization rate of industrial structure ;
( 2 ) With the expansion of information consumption scale , this kind of optimization will be better . ( 3 ) The optimization of industrial structure is better than that of resident consumption .
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F49;F121.3;F124

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