京津冀都市圈经济社会发展的脆弱性评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 13:55

本文选题：脆弱性 + 京津冀都市圈　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着京津冀协同发展上升至国家战略高度,京津冀都市圈经济社会发展到底处于一个什么样的水平,值得关注。脆弱性是一个综合性很强的概念,可以用来测度一个区域的社会、经济发展水平,它作为测度区域可持续发展相对水平、趋势、可能性的一种度,是区域经济社会在内外部不利扰动下表现出来的一种固有属性。基于此,本文以京津冀都市圈经济社会发展的脆弱性为研究视角,通过文献分析和数据搜集,构建指标体系,运用主成分—聚类分析方法进行了评价研究。本文结合脆弱性的相关研究,总结出了区域经济社会发展的脆弱性概念,即区域经济社会发展的脆弱性,是一种动态脆弱性,指区域经济社会在时间维度上表现出来的,对于内外部扰动的承受能力以及对自身恢复能力大小的一种度量。已有文献针对京津冀都市圈的经济社会发展的脆弱性研究较少,本文通过对已有文献研究的整理,运用科学的方法选取了18个经济社会发展的指标,构建了经济社会发展脆弱性评价指标体系。从“第十个五年计划”“第十一个五年计划”中选取了具有代表性的年份2007年、2010年、2011年的统计数据进行了搜集整理,运用主成分-聚类分析方法建立模型,系统分析了京津冀都市圈10个城市的经济社会发展的脆弱性。得出该区域的脆弱性可以分为四类：北京、天津、河北省8市分为两类,脆弱程度依次递增；其中,河北省内各城市又因不同的脆弱性在三个年份中呈现不同的排序和分类。针对评价结果对于引发京津冀都市圈经济社会发展脆弱性的原因进行了分析,并提出了优化建议,为相关部门制定京津冀都市圈的发展综合治理策略,实现京津冀都市圈的协同发展提供思路。
[Abstract]:With the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to the national strategic level, what level of economic and social development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is worthy of attention. Vulnerability is a comprehensive concept that can be used to measure the level of social and economic development in a region, as a measure of relative levels, trends, and possibilities of regional sustainable development. It is an inherent attribute of regional economy and society under the unfavorable disturbance inside and outside. Based on this, this paper takes the vulnerability of economic and social development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area as the research angle, through literature analysis and data collection, constructs the index system, and uses the principal component cluster analysis method to carry on the appraisal research. This paper sums up the concept of vulnerability of regional economic and social development, that is, the fragility of regional economic and social development, which is a kind of dynamic vulnerability, which refers to the time dimension of regional economic and social development. A measure of the tolerance of internal and external disturbances and of the ability to recover. There are few studies on the vulnerability of economic and social development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. This paper selects 18 indicators of economic and social development by means of scientific methods. The vulnerability evaluation index system of economic and social development is constructed. The statistical data of 2007, 2010 and 2011 are collected from the 11th Five-Year Plan of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, and the principal component cluster analysis method is used to build the model. The vulnerability of economic and social development of 10 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei metropolitan area is analyzed systematically. It is concluded that the vulnerability of this region can be divided into four categories: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, eight cities can be divided into two categories, the degree of vulnerability increases in turn, and the cities in Hebei Province show different ranking and classification in three years because of different vulnerability. In view of the evaluation results, the causes of the vulnerability of economic and social development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area are analyzed, and the optimization suggestions are put forward to formulate comprehensive management strategies for the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. To realize the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei metropolitan area.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;D67

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