建国以来陕西省产业结构演变过程及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-13 01:10

本文选题：产业结构 + 动态偏离—份额分析法　；参考：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文对于建国以来陕西省产业结构演变的过程进行了分析和整理。首先将1949年至今分为不同的几个历史阶段,分阶段考察陕西省产业结构演变的历史脉络,为陕西省在进行经济建设和产业结构调整时提供相应的历史依据和经验参考。其次运用动态偏离—份额分析法归纳出两个历史阶段三次产业陕西省产业结构演变的规律特点,结果表明:三次产业均呈现“剧烈波动——平稳缓和——加速调整”的特点。将计划经济时期和改革开放时期进行对比,发现计划经济时期产业结构波动剧烈,结构因素作用强,第二产业实际增长突出,第一三产业增长相对较弱;而改革开放时期,专门化因素作用强,第二产业优势减缓,第三产业增长潜力大、后劲足。在此基础之上,对于陕西省在产业结构演变过程中之所以会产生这些特征给出相应的理论阐释,寻找推动陕西省产业结构演变的主要因素,并用主成分分析法研究不同因素的作用大小,与前文理论阐释进行对比后得出,在不同的历史阶段,推动陕西省产业结构演变的因素作用不同,就业水平,经济发展程度,基础设施建设情况在两个历史阶段均起到了重要作用,政府行为在计划经济时期作用明显,需求结构作用不强,而需求结构、投资、科技水平、市场化水平在改革开放时期的作用很大,也表明了步入到改革开放时期,产业结构演变因素更加多元化。最后,为下一步陕西省经济发展给出相应的调整目标和相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes and arranges the process of industrial structure evolution in Shaanxi Province since the founding of the people's Republic of China. First of all, it divides 1949 into several historical stages, and investigates the historical context of the evolution of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province in stages, which provides corresponding historical basis and experience reference for Shaanxi Province in the process of economic construction and industrial structure adjustment. Secondly, the characteristics of the evolution of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province in two historical stages are summed up by the method of dynamic deviation-share analysis. The results show that the three industries are characterized by "violent fluctuation, steady relaxation and accelerated adjustment". By comparing the planned economy period with the reform and opening up period, it is found that the industrial structure fluctuated sharply during the planned economy period, the function of the structure factor is strong, the real growth of the second industry is prominent, the growth of the first and third industries is relatively weak; and during the period of reform and opening up, The specialized factor is strong, the secondary industry superiority slows down, the tertiary industry growth potential is big, the stamina is sufficient. On the basis of this, this paper gives a theoretical explanation of these characteristics in the process of industrial structure evolution in Shaanxi Province, and looks for the main factors to promote the evolution of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province. Using principal component analysis method to study the effect of different factors, compared with the previous theoretical interpretation, it is concluded that, in different historical stages, the factors promoting the evolution of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province are different, the level of employment and the degree of economic development. The situation of infrastructure construction has played an important role in both historical periods. Government actions have played a significant role in the planned economy period, while the demand structure has not played a strong role, while the demand structure, investment, and scientific and technological level have not been strong. The level of marketization plays an important role in the period of reform and opening up, which also indicates that the factors of industrial structure evolution are more diversified in the period of reform and opening up. Finally, it gives corresponding adjustment target and relevant policy suggestions for the next step economic development of Shaanxi Province.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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