中国GDP数据修订发布制度及其数据修正效应

发布时间：2018-06-18 06:59

本文选题：国内生产总值 + 修正发布制度　；参考：《河南财经政法大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国内生产总值这一统计概念，自产生以来就备受社会各界关注。改革开放以来，中国的国际地位有了很大提高，中国的GDP数据随之也受到了世界瞩目。目前，世界各国在GDP核算方面都不尽完善，中国也不例外，GDP核算工作存在着突出问题，其中尤以数据质量问题突出。通过制度上的总结我们可以发现，GDP数据的质量保证离不开科学完善的数据修订发布制度。21世纪初，国内外学者对中国的GDP数据质量提出了质疑，尤其是关于“中国的GDP数据到底是否真实”的争论曾经一度白热化，这便与当时中国采取了不完善的GDP数据修订发布制度有着很大关系。1985-2003年，中国的GDP核算发布制度存在着严重问题：年底公布的预计数，很容易使人误以为是最终统计数据，而且修正后的GDP增长率数据往往不予公布。随着国家统计工作的不断完善、国民经济统计与国际标准的逐步接轨，国家统计局对数据质量越来越重视。从2003年开始，统计部门对GDP核算发布制度进行了一系列重大改革，例如，增加了GDP数据的修订发布次数，严格规定了每次发布数据的修正依据、发布时间及发布媒介等内容。但是，和世界上其他先进国家相比，中国的GDP修订发布次数偏少，发布时间也有些偏晚，因此，中国的GDP核算发布制度还需进一步完善。在现行的GDP修订发布制度下，国家GDP发布经历了四个阶段：先从初步核算到初步核实，再到最终核实，最后到经济普查历史数据修订，而大部分省（市）则经历了三个阶段：初步核算、最终核实及历史修订。由于基础资料不同，每次的发布数据之间不尽相同，每次的修正效应也会存在差别，限于篇幅，本文仅以经济普查对初步核算数的修正为例，从国家和地区两个层面，详细分析地区生产总值的数据修正效应，并得出以下主要结论：第一，，不论国家还是东、中、西各地区，2008年第二次经济普查对历史数据的修正幅度明显小于2004年第一次经济普查，而且，越靠近经济普查年，经济普查对地区生产总值的修正幅度越大。第二，不论国家和地区，经济普查对地区生产总值的修正效应都较为客观。最后，文章还对现行的GDP修订发布制度提出了若干技术性建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's international status has been greatly improved, and the GDP data of China has also attracted the attention of the world. At present, all countries in the world are not perfect in the GDP accounting, and the Chinese countries are no exception. There are outstanding problems in the GDP accounting work. In particular, the problem of data quality is outstanding. Through the summary of the system we can find that the quality assurance of the GDP data is inseparable from the scientific and perfect data revision and publication system at the beginning of the.21 century. The domestic and foreign scholars have questioned the GDP data quality of China, especially on whether the "GDP data in China is true" is once a debate. It is so hot that it has a big relationship with the imperfect GDP data revision and release system that China has adopted at that time.1985-2003. There are serious problems in the GDP accounting and publishing system in China: the expected numbers published at the end of the year are easily mistaken for the final statistical data, and the revised GDP growth rate data are often not published. With the continuous improvement of national statistical work and the gradual integration of national economic statistics with international standards, the National Bureau of statistics has paid more and more attention to the quality of data. Since 2003, the statistical department has carried out a series of major reforms on the GDP accounting and publishing system, for example, the number of revised GDP data has been increased, and the data are strictly regulated each time. Compared with other advanced countries in the world, compared with other advanced countries in the world, the number of Chinese GDP revisions is less and the release time is somewhat late. Therefore, China's GDP accounting system needs to be further improved. Under the current GDP revised distribution system, the national GDP release has experienced four stages: first: first From preliminary accounting to preliminary verification, to final verification, and finally to the revision of the historical data of the economic census, the majority of the provinces (cities) have experienced three stages: preliminary accounting, final verification and historical revision. This paper, taking the revision of the preliminary accounting number of the economic census as an example, analyzes the data correction effect in detail from two levels of the country and the region, and draws the following main conclusions: first, no matter the country or the East, the middle, and the western regions, the revision of the historical data in the second economic investigation in 2008 is obviously less than the first in 2004. The second economic census, and the closer to the economic census, the greater the revision of the economic census to the GDP. Second, no matter the country or the region, the economic census has a more objective correction effect on the Gross Regional Product. Finally, the article also put forward some technical suggestions for the current GDP revision and distribution system.
【学位授予单位】：河南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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