东盟基础设施建设对中国东盟贸易影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-18 07:50

本文选题：中国 + 东盟　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：从1991年中国与东盟正式对话,到2010年中国-东盟自贸区成立,中国与东盟各国经贸关系迅猛发展。从2002年11月中国与东盟签署《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》到中国-东盟自贸区正式成立双边贸易额增长了近5倍。随着自贸区关税的不断降低,贸易自由化对双边贸易的促进作用也逐渐下降。2015年中国与东盟双边贸易额出现负增长。随着经贸关系的不断发展和双边人员往来的增多,东盟基础设施水平已经滞后于双边人员交流和贸易发展的需要,基础设施建设已经成为影响双边经贸发展的重要因素之一。如何通过基础设施的建设促进双边贸易的发展,改善人民的生活水平成为各国政府关心的问题。中国“一带一路”战略的实施与《东盟互联互通总体规划》的签署,为东盟基础设施建设提供了新的思路和机遇。进一步促进东盟国家基础设施,推动中国与东盟各国基础设施的互联互通,将开创中国与东盟各国经贸合作发展的崭新时代。本文通过借鉴国内外学者对基础设施的定义,对自由贸易区理论、区域一体化理论以及基础设施对贸易发展影响等相关经验进行回顾。在东盟基础设施和中国与东盟双边贸易发展的基础上,分析了东盟基础设施建设对双边贸易的影响。本文一共分为五章:第一章首先对东盟基础设施建设对中国东盟贸易的影响分析的研究背景和研究意义进行介绍,同时将国内外对于基础设施对贸易影响研究动态进行梳理和总结,对研究方法和思路以及技术路线进行阐述。第二章,对基础设施相关概念以及国际贸易等相关理论进行总结。第三章,主要介绍东盟各国基础设施现状,中国与东盟各国之间贸易发展状况,并分析东盟基础设施建设和双边贸易发展中存在的问题。第四章,运用扩展后的引力模型,对交通基础设施和通信基础设施做了回归分析。当加入是否与中国有公路或铁路联通和是否建立中国-东盟海上合作基金作为两个虚拟变量时,经过分析发现,陆地上的互联互通能有效地促进双边贸易的发展。由于东盟各国所处地理环境不同可以分为陆地国家和海岛国家,各种不同交通基础设施的发展可能对东盟陆地国家和海洋国家与中国的贸易的作用程度不同。为了进行更深入的研究,我们分别将东盟陆地国家和海岛国家交通基础设施进行对比分析。最后利用实证分析中的引力模型测算中国与东盟的贸易潜力,发现大部分国家与中国有很大的贸易潜力。第五章,概述了东盟基础设施建设以及同中国互联互通过程中面临的挑战,在此基础上提出如何促进东盟基础设施建设和双边贸易发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:From the formal dialogue between China and ASEAN in 1991 to the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, the economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN countries developed rapidly. From the signing of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN in November 2002 to the formal establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area, the bilateral trade volume has increased nearly fivefold. With the tariff reduction in the FTA, the promotion of trade liberalization to bilateral trade has gradually declined. The bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN shows negative growth in 2015. With the continuous development of economic and trade relations and the increase of bilateral personnel exchanges, the level of ASEAN infrastructure has lagged behind the needs of bilateral personnel exchanges and trade development. Infrastructure construction has become one of the important factors affecting bilateral economic and trade development. How to promote the development of bilateral trade and improve the people's living standard through the construction of infrastructure has become a problem concerned by the governments of all countries. The implementation of China's "Belt and Road" strategy and the signing of the General Plan for ASEAN Connectivity provide new ideas and opportunities for ASEAN infrastructure construction. Further promoting the infrastructure of ASEAN countries and promoting the interconnection of infrastructure between China and ASEAN countries will usher in a new era of economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries. Based on the definition of infrastructure at home and abroad, this paper reviews the theory of free trade area, the theory of regional integration and the influence of infrastructure on the development of trade. On the basis of ASEAN infrastructure and the development of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, the influence of ASEAN infrastructure construction on bilateral trade is analyzed. This paper is divided into five chapters: the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the analysis of the impact of ASEAN infrastructure construction on China-ASEAN trade. At the same time, the domestic and foreign research on the impact of infrastructure on trade trends are summarized, and the research methods and ideas as well as the technical route are expounded. The second chapter summarizes the related concepts of infrastructure and international trade. The third chapter mainly introduces the current situation of ASEAN countries' infrastructure, the development of trade between China and ASEAN countries, and analyzes the problems in ASEAN infrastructure construction and bilateral trade development. In chapter 4, the extended gravity model is used to analyze the transportation infrastructure and communication infrastructure. Whether there is road or railway connection with China or not and whether to establish China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation Fund as two virtual variables are analyzed. It is found that land connectivity can effectively promote the development of bilateral trade. Because the geographical environment of ASEAN countries can be divided into land countries and island countries, the development of various transport infrastructure may have different effects on the trade between ASEAN land countries and marine countries and China. In order to carry out further research, we compare and analyze the transport infrastructure of ASEAN land countries and island countries respectively. Finally, the trade potential between China and ASEAN is estimated by using the gravity model of empirical analysis, and it is found that most countries have great trade potential with China. In the fifth chapter, the challenges in the process of ASEAN infrastructure construction and interconnection with China are summarized, and the countermeasures and suggestions on how to promote ASEAN infrastructure construction and bilateral trade development are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125

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