产业资源相对承载力视角下民族地区产业发展与经济增长路径研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 11:50

本文选题：产业资源相对承载力 + 产业库兹涅茨曲线　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年03期

【摘要】：使用1996—2014年我国民族8省区的面板数据,构建产业资源相对承载力模型及产业发展库兹涅茨曲线模型,对区域产业发展、经济增长、产业资源相对承载能力三者之间的关系及其动态变化进行分析。研究发现,我国民族地区三次产业综合资源相对承载力约为32 784.7万人,状态均小于0,呈富裕状态,平均富裕人口约13 817.53万人,平均富裕率高达72.82%。其中第一产业资源相对承载力对区域综合产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为46.18%,第二产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为44.38%,第三产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为9.43%;第三产业资源相对承载力增长速度最快,增长率高达32.68%。产业发展初期,第一产业经济拉动效果最为显著。从产业持续发展与经济增长动态关系来看,第一产业发展呈"倒U型"库兹涅茨曲线关系;第二产业发展呈二次曲线正相关上升部分关系;第三产业发展呈"U型"曲线的关系。基于产业资源相对承载力视角,民族地区产业发展应当遵循如下发展路径:第一产业应当在保证粮食等必要初级产品供给安全的前提下,调整结构,以特色资源为引导,进一步扩大产业特色资源的规模效益;第二产业必须以转变发展方式为主要任务,走集约发展路线,以产业资源承载能力及生态承载力为红线,保持产业适度规模;第三产业发展应当以扩大规模,提高质量,提升产业资源承载能力为主要任务,充分释放产业资源的资本化能力,推动经济发展。
[Abstract]:By using the panel data of 8 provinces and regions of China from 1996 to 2014, the relative carrying capacity model of industrial resources and the Kuznets curve model of industrial development are constructed to improve the regional industrial development and economic growth. The relationship and dynamic change of relative carrying capacity of industrial resources are analyzed. It is found that the relative carrying capacity of comprehensive resources of three industries in ethnic areas is about 327.847 million people, the status is less than 0, and the average rich population is about 138.1753 million, the average wealth rate is as high as 72.82. The average contribution rate of the relative carrying capacity of the primary industry resources to the regional comprehensive industry resources is 46.18, the average contribution rate of the second industry resources to the regional comprehensive industry resources is 44.38, and the average contribution rate of the tertiary industry resources to the regional comprehensive industry resources is 9.43. The relative carrying capacity of tertiary industry resources has the fastest growth rate. The growth rate is 32.68%. In the early stage of industrial development, the first industry economic pull effect is most remarkable. From the view of the relationship between industry sustainable development and economic growth, the development of primary industry shows the relationship of "inverted U" Kuznets curve, the development of secondary industry is positively related to the rising part of the quadratic curve, and the development of tertiary industry is "U-shaped". Based on the perspective of relative carrying capacity of industrial resources, the industrial development in ethnic minority areas should follow the following development paths: the primary industry should adjust its structure and take the characteristic resources as the guide under the premise of ensuring the safety of the supply of essential primary products such as grain. The second industry should take the transformation of development mode as the main task, take the intensive development route, take the carrying capacity of industrial resources and ecological carrying capacity as the red line, and maintain the appropriate scale of the industry. The development of the tertiary industry should take the expansion of the scale, the improvement of the quality and the improvement of the carrying capacity of the industrial resources as the main tasks to fully release the capitalization ability of the industrial resources and to promote the economic development.
【作者单位】：中南民族大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“民族地区集中连片特困问题跨学科研究”(批准号:13BMZ05)
【分类号】：F127.8

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