中国梦实现程度的评价体系与方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 14:08

本文选题：中国梦 + 评价指标体系　；参考：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：“中国梦”一词最早出现在1276年郑思肖的诗句“一心中国梦，万古下泉诗”中，近代通过文化作品进入人们视野，2003年被郑必坚教授用来反驳“中国威胁论”代表中国发展的和平性，自此便进入了学术界。之后在吴建明同志组织下连续召开了三届以“中国梦与和谐世界”为主旨的研讨会，会上学者们提出了许多自己对中国梦的看法，其中主流的观点是中国梦为和谐发展和文明复兴。2012年11月，国家主席习近平同志也提出了自己对中国梦的见解，并用“实现中华民族的伟大复兴”来概括其内涵，指出当前两个阶段目标——2020年的全面小康（中等发达）和2050年的社会主义现代化（迈入发达国家）一定能实现。习近平同志的讲话，不仅高度概括统一了中国梦的含义，也将其与国家发展规划联系在一起，之后以更多的学者就其内涵、特征等进行了定性分析。本文以此为基础，尝试对中国梦现阶段目标的实现程度进行量化。基于学者对中国梦和其两个阶段目标的研究，，本文构建了一个包含经济、社会、民生、环境和国际影响力五个方面的四级评价指标体系，以国家发展规划为思想指导，采用理论和统计分析结合的方法完善了体系中目标的设定。之后采用综合评价分析法对我国1990年到2011年的数据进行了实证分析，得出了以下结论：（1）1990年到2011年中国梦的总体指标几乎一直处于上升状态，其增长率受政府政策、自然灾害、金融危机、基础工程建设和技术进步的影响较大；（2）2011年对2020年目标的总体实现程度为81.77%，按照历史经验数据规律，更可能在2018年提前完成目标的结论；（3）除二级指标除影响力方面的指标波动较大外，其余四个方面均为增长趋势，环境和民生方面指标随时间的增长趋势接近直线，而经济和社会的增长趋势为三次曲线；（4）“四化”建设的同步性虽然在增长，但农业现代化与其他三化的差距也越来越明显。根据分析结果，文章针对很可能影响中国梦2020年目标实现的几个方面，提出了调整产业结构、优化收入分配、提高农业现代化、保障社会稳定、促进教育公平、增加军事信息化支出等方面的建议。
[Abstract]:The word "Chinese Dream" first appeared in the poem of Zheng Sixiao in 1276, "one mind Chinese Dream, forever Lower Spring Poems". In 2003, Professor Zheng Bijian used Professor Zheng Bijian to refute the peaceful nature of the "China threat" on behalf of China's development. Since then, he has entered the academic circles. After that, under the organization of Comrade Wu Jianming, three consecutive seminars were held with the theme of "Chinese Dream and a harmonious world," at which scholars put forward many of their views on Chinese Dream. The mainstream view is that Chinese Dream is for harmonious development and civilization renaissance. In November 2012, President Xi Jinping also put forward his own views on Chinese Dream and summed up its connotation by "realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." It is pointed out that the goals of the current two stages-the overall well-off (moderately developed) in 2020 and the socialist modernization in 2050 (entering developed countries) can be achieved. Comrade Xi Jinping's speech not only highly generalizes and unifies the meaning of Chinese Dream, but also connects it with the national development plan, and then makes a qualitative analysis on its connotation and characteristics with more scholars. Based on this, this paper attempts to quantify the degree of realization of Chinese Dream goals at the present stage. Based on the scholars' research on Chinese Dream and its two-stage goal, this paper constructs a four-level evaluation index system, which includes five aspects: economy, society, people's livelihood, environment and international influence, which is guided by the national development plan. The method of combining theory and statistical analysis is used to perfect the goal setting in the system. Then we use the comprehensive evaluation analysis method to analyze the data of our country from 1990 to 2011, and draw the following conclusion: 1) the overall index of Chinese Dream from 1990 to 2011 is almost rising, and its growth rate is affected by government policy and natural disaster. Financial crisis, infrastructure construction and technological progress have a great impact on the achievement of 2020 target in 2011. The overall degree of achievement is 81.77. According to the rule of historical data, it is more likely to complete the target in 2018. Except for the second class index, except the influence index, the other four aspects are growth trend, the environment and people's livelihood increase trend is close to straight line with time, but the economic and social growth trend is cubic curve; 4) although the synchronism of the construction of the four modernizations is increasing, the gap between the modernization of agriculture and the other three modernizations is becoming more and more obvious. According to the analysis results, aiming at several aspects that may affect the realization of Chinese Dream 2020 goal, the paper puts forward the adjustment of industrial structure, the optimization of income distribution, the improvement of agricultural modernization, the guarantee of social stability, and the promotion of educational fairness. Increase military information expenditure and other aspects of the proposal.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D61;F124

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