省际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 08:47

本文选题：省际贸易 + 因素分解　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：研究目标:考察省际贸易对经济增长的贡献。研究方法:区分结构影响与部门影响的因素分解模型。研究发现:第一,消费对中国经济增长的贡献比重在下降;省际调出因素和出口因素的贡献比重在上升。第二,1987年,省际调出仅在3个省份是经济增长的第一贡献因素;2007年,省际调出则在11个省份成为经济增长的第一贡献因素。第三,从省份视角看,尽管出口对经济增长的贡献比重在上升,但在2007年,省际调出贡献比重仍然是出口贡献比重的3.5倍;从部门视角看,省际调出的贡献比重也依然大于出口的贡献比重。第四,在将因素贡献比重变化的来源区分为结构影响与部门影响之后,不管是消费贡献比重的下降,还是省际调出和出口贡献比重的上升,部门影响均发挥着主导作用。研究创新:将省际贸易引入关于经济增长的因素分解模型。研究价值:对于目前步入"新常态"的中国经济,省际贸易可以成为未来中国经济新的增长点。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the contribution of interprovincial trade to economic growth. Methods: a factorization model for distinguishing structural and sectoral effects. The results show that: first, the contribution of consumption to China's economic growth is declining, and the contribution of inter-provincial factors and export factors is on the rise. Second, in 1987, inter-provincial transfer was the first contributing factor to economic growth in only 3 provinces, while in 2007, inter-provincial transfer was the first contributing factor to economic growth in 11 provinces. Third, from a provincial perspective, although the contribution of exports to economic growth is on the rise, in 2007 the proportion of inter-provincial contribution is still 3.5 times that of exports; from a sectoral perspective, The proportion of inter-provincial contribution is still larger than that of export. Fourth, after dividing the sources of factor contribution into structural impact and sectoral impact, the sectoral impact plays a leading role, whether it is the decline of consumption contribution proportion or the increase of inter-provincial transfer and export contribution proportion. Research innovation: interprovincial trade is introduced into the factorization model of economic growth. Research value: for China's economy entering the "new normal" at present, inter-provincial trade can become a new growth point of China's economy in the future.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部;
【基金】：International Scholar Exchange Fellowship(ISEF) for the year 2014~2015 subsidized by Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies(KFAS)的资助
【分类号】：F124;F752.8

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