广西对外出口贸易对经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 04:21

本文选题：广西对外出口贸易 + 经济增长　；参考：《广西师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济一体化和全球化的发展,对外贸易日益受到人们的关注,对外贸易能否促进经济的增长越来越成为经济学家关注的焦点。特别是经济落后地区,借助对外出口贸易的发展可以较快实现经济的发展。广西位于祖国南陲,经济发展相对比较落后,但广西拥有良好的区位优势和较为丰富的资源物产,特别是2002年中国--东盟自由贸易区以及2008年广西北部湾经济区成立之后,广西经济取得了较快的发展。那么,在广西经济发展过程中,对外出口贸易起到了什么样的作用?出口贸易与经济增长之间是否存在着因果关系?把这些问题搞清楚,对保持广西经济的平稳健康发展,具有较强的实践指导意义。论文主要借助统计学中的非参数检验、时间序列分析等方法,并结合向量自回归模型,对广西对外出口贸易对经济增长的影响进行了较为全面的分析。论文首先介绍广西出口贸易的历史,分析广西出口贸易的现状,然后利用两相关样本对广西与全国出口依存度、出口贸易对经济增长的贡献率、出口拉动经济增长的百分点等问题进行检验和差异分析,同时利用向量自回归模型对出口、进口、全社会固定资产投资对GDP的影响进行实证分析。分析结果表明,广西出口依存度显著低于全国出口依存度；广西出口贸易对经济增长的贡献率与全国出口贸易对经济增长的贡献率无显著差异；广西出口拉动经济增长的百分点显著低于全国出口拉动经济增长的百分点；进口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用小于出口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用;广西出口贸易和经济增长之间不存在格兰杰因果关系；广西出口贸易对经济增长的影响是正向且是长期的等。针对上述结果,并结合我国的经济发展形势,论文给出了如下几点建议：优化出口结构；实行出口市场多元化战略；扩大出口规模等。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Especially in economically backward areas, economic development can be achieved quickly with the aid of the development of foreign export trade. Guangxi is located in the southern border of the motherland, and its economic development is relatively backward. However, Guangxi has a good location advantage and abundant resources, especially after the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2002 and the establishment of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in 2008. Guangxi has made rapid economic development. So, in the process of Guangxi's economic development, what role has foreign export trade played? Is there a causal relationship between export trade and economic growth? To make these problems clear is of great practical significance to maintain the steady and healthy development of Guangxi's economy. With the help of non-parametric test, time series analysis and vector autoregressive model, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the influence of Guangxi's foreign export trade on economic growth. The paper first introduces the history of Guangxi's export trade, analyzes the present situation of Guangxi's export trade, and then uses two relevant samples to analyze the degree of export dependence between Guangxi and the whole country, and the contribution rate of export trade to economic growth. At the same time, we use the vector autoregressive model to analyze the effect of export, import and the whole society fixed asset investment on GDP. The results show that the degree of export dependence of Guangxi is significantly lower than that of the whole country, and there is no significant difference between the contribution rate of Guangxi export trade to economic growth and the contribution rate of national export trade to economic growth. Guangxi's export-led economic growth is significantly lower than that of the whole country's export-led economic growth, while import trade has less pulling effect on economic growth than export trade on economic growth. There is no Granger causality between Guangxi's export trade and economic growth, and the impact of Guangxi's export trade on economic growth is positive and long-term. In view of the above results and combined with the economic development situation of our country, the paper gives the following suggestions: optimizing the export structure, carrying out the export market diversification strategy, expanding the export scale and so on.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F752.62

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