产品复杂性水平对中日产业升级影响的比较研究——基于产品空间理论的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-30 09:16

本文选题：产品复杂度指数 + 产业升级　；参考：《经济管理》2017年05期

【摘要】：在中国经济发展面临着"三期叠加"的挑战,发展进入新常态的背景下,如何实现产业结构的升级来刺激经济进一步发展成为学者们热烈讨论的话题。特别是在中国成为"制造大国"的今天,如何消化过剩产能,实现"供给侧改革"也引起了格外的关注。本文从产品空间理论的研究视角出发,以全球产品贸易数据库中的1962—2013年期间的数据为依据,实证对比分析了产品复杂性水平对中国和日本产业结构升级的作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国产业结构中的优势产业数量增长十分迅速,但是,在产品空间连接紧密的核心区域的优势产业数量有限,产品复杂性指数(PCI)与日本相差较远,产业的竞争力有限;(2)中国全产业的产品复杂度一定程度上抑制了产业的升级发展,同时也抑制了相关产业产品失势和市场退出,而日本全产业的产品复杂度则推动了日本产业进一步升级发展,并且有利于相关产业产品失势与市场退出;(3)在中国制造业的升级发展过程中,既存在着产品复杂度水平低,与日本差距较大带来的挑战,同时,本文又看到,制造业的产品复杂度对制造业升级发展影响相比于全产业抑制作用的弱化,以及对制造业相关产品失势与市场退出的推动作用带来的发展机遇。
[Abstract]:Under the background that China's economic development is facing the challenge of "three phases superposition", how to realize the upgrading of industrial structure to stimulate the further development of economy has become a hot topic for scholars to discuss. Especially when China becomes a "manufacturing country", how to digest excess capacity and realize "supply-side reform" has also attracted special attention. From the perspective of product space theory, based on the data from 1962-2013 in the global product trade database, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanism of product complexity level on the upgrading of industrial structure in China and Japan. The results show that: (1) the number of superior industries in China's industrial structure is growing rapidly, but the number of dominant industries in the core regions with close product space is limited, and the product complexity index (PCI) is far from that of Japan. (2) the product complexity of the whole industry in China to some extent inhibits the upgrading and development of the industry, and at the same time inhibits the loss of the products of the related industries and the withdrawal of the market. The product complexity of the whole industry in Japan promotes the further upgrading and development of Japanese industry, and is conducive to the decline of related industries and the withdrawal of the market. (3) in the process of upgrading and developing Chinese manufacturing industry, there is a low level of product complexity. At the same time, this paper also finds that the impact of manufacturing complexity on the upgrading of manufacturing industry is weaker than that of the whole industry. And the development opportunities brought by the loss of manufacturing related products and the promotion of market withdrawal.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学管理学院;武汉大学企业战略管理研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“优势产业组合、竞争力空间与结构转型研究”(71372124),国家自然科学基金项目“中国新创企业的成长战略研究——基于网络进化与制度创新相结合视角”(71428005) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球生产网络、知识权保护与中国外贸竞争力提升研究”(15ZDB155)
【分类号】：F121.3;F131.3

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