我国中部地区技术创新景气指数测度研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 09:29

本文选题：区域技术创新 + 景气指数　；参考：《太原理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今社会经济发展与区域技术创新能力密切相关,技术创新是经济增长的根本动力之一,并越来越受到各国政府的重视。近年来,我国政府不断加强技术创新,提出“大众创业,万众创新”是经济增长和发展的两大动力来源之一。区域技术创新能力与其经济发展水平、自然资源分布以及政策法规制度等方面有关。在我国,中部地区的区域技术创新能力与东部地区、东北地区和西部地区相比处于中下游水平,仅高于西部地区。针对中部地区的区域技术创新能力较弱的现状,为了更好地提高中部地区的技术创新能力并且促进中部崛起战略的实施。因此,开展中部地区整体和中部六省技术创新能力发展水平研究具有重要理论意义和实践指导意义。本文在系统梳理和总结国内外研究成果基础上,采用景气指数法对中部地区整体及中部六省技术创新能力的景气状况进行分析和评价;而后结合创新周期波动理论,建立中部地区技术创新景气指数综合预警信号灯系统,并对中部地区技术创新景气指数的变化水平进行预测分析和评价。本文的主要内容包括:(1)系统梳理和总结了景气指数及去技术创新能力评价系统等方面的研究现状;(2)对区域技术创新能力和景气指数进行概念界定并阐述相关理论;(3)筛选景气指标,并采用合成指数法确定中部地区及中部六省的技术创新景气指数,在此基础上对其技术创新能力进行分析和评价;(4)结合创新周期波动理论,建立中部地区技术创新景气指数综合预警信号灯系统,并对中部地区技术创新景气指数的变化水平进行预测分析和评价。本文主要结论如下:(1)采用景气指数法对中部地区技术创新能力进行分析和评价,所有指标组的先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标依次存在1-2年的时滞,景气指标组能科学合理地反映各自的景气状态。(2)采用景气指数法分析和评价中部地区技术创新能力,结果显示,1990-2013年期间中部地区整体以及中部六省的技术创新能力经历了快速发展、平稳发展和持续发展三个阶段。(3)建立技术创新景气预警信号系统,并且以此综合评估和预测中部地区技术创新能力的发展状态,结果显示目前中部地区以及中部六省各自的技术创新能力发展增速均处在正常状态,尚未达到繁荣上升的状态。本文的创新点:(1)按照先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标的分类标准采用合成指数法建立了中部六省及中部地区整体各自的技术创新能力评价指标体系,并据此计算各自的技术创新景气指数,对各自技术创新的景气状态进行分析。(2)以技术创新景气指数的年增长值作为预警综合指标,建立技术创新景气预警信号系统,根据指示灯的颜色判断技术创新的发展状态,为相关部门制定具体决策提供依据。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the development of social economy is closely related to the ability of regional technological innovation. Technological innovation is one of the fundamental driving forces of economic growth, and has been paid more and more attention by the governments of various countries. In recent years, our government has constantly strengthened technological innovation, and put forward that "mass entrepreneurship, mass innovation" is one of the two major driving sources of economic growth and development. The ability of regional technological innovation is related to the level of economic development, the distribution of natural resources and the system of policies and regulations. In China, the regional technological innovation ability of the central region is only higher than that of the eastern region, the northeast region and the western region, and is at the level of the middle and lower reaches, which is only higher than that of the western region. In view of the weak regional technological innovation ability in the central region, in order to improve the technological innovation ability of the central region better and promote the implementation of the strategy of the rise of the central region. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out the research on the development level of technological innovation ability in the central region as a whole and in the six central provinces. On the basis of systematically combing and summing up the domestic and foreign research results, this paper analyzes and evaluates the prosperity of the technological innovation ability of the whole central region and the six central provinces by using the boom index method, and then combines the theory of innovation cycle fluctuation. A comprehensive early warning signal light system for the technological innovation boom index in the central region is established, and the change level of the technological innovation boom index in the central region is forecasted and evaluated. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) systemically combing and summing up the current research situation of the boom index and the evaluation system of de-technological innovation ability; (2) defining the concept of regional technological innovation capability and boom index and expounding the relevant theories. (III) screening of climate indicators, The technology innovation boom index of the central region and six central provinces is determined by the composite index method, and the technological innovation ability is analyzed and evaluated on this basis. (4) combined with the innovation cycle fluctuation theory, A comprehensive early warning signal light system for the technological innovation boom index in the central region is established, and the change level of the technological innovation boom index in the central region is forecasted and evaluated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) using the boom index method to analyze and evaluate the technological innovation ability in the central region. The leading indicators of all index groups, consistent indicators and lagging indicators have a lag of 1-2 years in turn. The prosperity index group can reflect their prosperity state scientifically and reasonably. (2) the technology innovation ability of the central region is analyzed and evaluated by using the boom index method. The results show that the technological innovation capability of the whole central region and the six central provinces experienced three stages of rapid development, steady development and sustained development during 1990-2013. (3) establishing an early warning signal system for technological innovation boom. The result shows that the development rate of technological innovation ability in the central region and six provinces in central China is in the normal state and has not yet reached the state of prosperity and rising. The innovation points of this paper are as follows: (1) according to the classification standards of leading index, consistent index and lag index, the evaluation index system of technological innovation ability of six central provinces and central regions is established by composite index method. Based on this, we calculate their technological innovation boom index, and analyze their technological innovation boom state. (2) taking the annual growth value of technological innovation boom index as the comprehensive index of early warning, we establish an early warning signal system for technological innovation boom. According to the color of indicator lamp, the development status of technological innovation is judged, which provides the basis for relevant departments to make concrete decision.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.3

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