两岸生产分工、贸易依赖与经济周期协动性

发布时间：2018-07-03 01:21

本文选题：两岸经济关系 + 经济周期协动性　；参考：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：研究目标:两岸生产分工和贸易往来对于两岸经济周期协动性的传导机制。研究方法:基于一个典型经济体间实际经济周期模型框架的冲击响应分析与实验模拟分析。研究发现:两岸经济结构仍然存在较大差异,其他经济体才是中国台湾宏观经济波动的主要外部冲击来源;两岸技术冲击相关性对于两岸经济周期协动性的形成发挥了关键作用;不论在双边贸易,还是双向投资方面,两岸经济关系都仅处于"浅层"相互依存状态,两岸经济周期协动性也以间接性、表象性为主要特征。研究创新:将动态随机一般均衡分析范式应用于两岸经济周期协动性问题研究。研究价值:揭示了两岸经济相互依存的内在特征,为旨在推动两岸经济关系良性发展的政策设计提供了新的参照系。
[Abstract]:Research objective: the transmission mechanism of cross-straits production division and trade relation to cross-straits economic cycle. Methods: shock response analysis and experimental simulation analysis based on the real economic cycle model framework of a typical economy. It is found that there are still great differences in the economic structure between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and other economies are the main sources of external shocks for the macroeconomic fluctuations of Taiwan and China. The correlation of technology impact between the two sides of the strait plays a key role in the formation of cross-straits economic cycle cooperativeness. In terms of bilateral trade and two-way investment, cross-strait economic relations are only in a "shallow" state of interdependence. Cross-straits business cycle coordination is also characterized by indirect and representational characteristics. Research innovation: applying dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis paradigm to cross-straits business cycle coordination. Research value: it reveals the inherent characteristics of economic interdependence between the two sides of the strait and provides a new frame of reference for the policy design aimed at promoting the sound development of cross-strait economic relations.
【作者单位】：厦门大学台湾研究院两岸关系和平发展协同创新中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新形势下两岸经济融合发展的动力机制研究” 福建省“高等学校新世纪优秀人才支持计划”资助
【分类号】：F127

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