质量、数量双重视角下的中国人口红利经济效应变化趋势分析

发布时间：2018-07-03 10:07

本文选题：经济增长 + 人口质量红利　；参考：《人口学刊》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章通过扩展MRW模型构建包括人口年龄结构和人力资本结构的内生经济增长模型。从理论上分析人口数量红利与人口质量红利对经济增长的影响机制和两者之间的替代关系,并利用中国1989~2014年各省数据进行验证。结果表明:人口质量红利会因人口年龄结构变化对人力资本投资率和投资结构产生影响,从而形成对人口数量红利的替代作用。人口数量红利对我国经济增长的平均贡献率为12.86%,其中贡献最大的年份是1990~2001年,平均贡献率在20%左右,2010年之后其贡献率开始明显下降。人口质量红利对我国经济增长的平均贡献率为8.39%,其贡献率总体呈现波动中不断上升的趋势。人口质量红利的贡献率在2010年前后开始明显上升并超越人口数量红利的贡献率,也即从那时起人口质量红利开始逐步替代人口数量红利成为中国经济增长新的动力源。研究结论表明在进行经济政策设计时必须充分认识和把握中国经济这种新的动力机制和要素特点,主动适应经济增长的新趋势,积极顺应增长要素变化的新要求。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs an endogenous economic growth model including population age structure and human capital structure by extending MRW model. This paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of the effect of population quantity dividend and population quality dividend on economic growth and the substitution relationship between them, and verifies them by using the provincial data from 1989 to 2014 in China. The results show that the population quality dividend will have an effect on the investment rate and investment structure of human capital because of the change of population age structure, thus forming the substitution effect on the population quantity dividend. The average contribution rate of population dividend to China's economic growth is 12.86. The most important contribution is from 1990 to 2001, and the average contribution rate is about 20%. After 2010, the contribution rate began to decrease obviously. The average contribution rate of the population quality dividend to China's economic growth is 8.39, and its contribution rate generally shows a rising trend in the fluctuation. The contribution rate of population quality dividend began to increase obviously around 2010 and exceeded the contribution rate of population quantity dividend, that is to say, population quality dividend began to replace population quantity dividend gradually to become the new power source of Chinese economic growth from then on. The conclusion of the study shows that we must fully understand and grasp the characteristics of the new driving mechanism and elements of China's economy, adapt to the new trend of economic growth, and actively adapt to the new requirements of the change of growth factors when designing economic policies.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学人口研究所;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目:人口转变、产业转型与中国经济社会可持续发展研究(13JJD820013)
【分类号】：C924.2;F124

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