外债对越南经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 22:56

本文选题：外债 + 经济增长　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：1986年越南实行经济改革后，经济得到快速发展，宏观经济较稳定，同时外债规模也在不断扩大。外债与越南的经济增长密切相关，本文旨在探讨越南的外债与经济增长之间存在的因果关系。本文通过搜集相关数据，，分析了越南的外债规模及经济影响。从规模来看，越南的外债在逐年增长，促进了越南的支柱产业发展和基础设施建设，但在一定程度上也制约了越南的经济发展。越南的外汇储备与外债总额的比例处于0.2-0.5之间的水平，外债偿还能力较弱。由于偿债压力不断加大，导致越南国内的资本利用效率低下、通货膨胀率较高、政府的财政预算赤字激增。同时，选取1994至2011年的越南国内生产总值、外债余额、经济开放程度、进出口贸易量等相关经济变量的系列数据，进行了实证分析，得出外债规模和国内总投资是对越南的经济增长影响作用最大的两个变量。最后，基于实证分析结果讨论了改进越南外债管理工作的政策。
[Abstract]:After the economic reform of Vietnam in 1986, the economy developed rapidly, the macro economy was stable, and the scale of foreign debt was expanding. Foreign debt is closely related to Vietnam's economic growth. This paper aims to explore the causal relationship between Vietnam's external debt and economic growth. By collecting relevant data, this paper analyzes the scale and economic impact of Vietnam's foreign debt. In terms of scale, Vietnam's foreign debt is increasing year by year, which promotes the development of Vietnam's pillar industries and infrastructure, but also restricts its economic development to a certain extent. The ratio of Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves to total foreign debt is between 0.2 and 0.5, and its external debt repayment capacity is weak. Rising debt-servicing pressures have led to inefficient domestic capital use, high inflation and a surge in the government's budget deficit. At the same time, the series data of Vietnam's GDP, foreign debt balance, economic openness, import / export trade volume and other related economic variables from 1994 to 2011 are analyzed empirically. It is concluded that the scale of foreign debt and total domestic investment are the two variables that have the greatest impact on Vietnam's economic growth. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the policy of improving Vietnam's foreign debt management is discussed.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F833.33;F133.3

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