中国资本回报率嬗变之谜

发布时间：2018-07-08 08:18

本文选题：资本回报率 + 资本错配　；参考：《中国工业经济》2017年07期

【摘要】：资本回报率对于理解宏观经济运行具有重要意义。本文旨在测算省际资本回报率和资本错配程度,以及考察资本错配程度对资本回报率的影响,进而判断中国经济是否长期可持续发展。在市场不完全的环境下,将资本回报率变动分解为资本深化速度、技术进步增长率、乘数效应和资本错配变动速度四个部分,构建资本错配程度影响资本回报率的计量模型,结合资本回报率和错配指数的省际面板数据,对中国经济中资本错配影响资本回报率进行实证分析。结果发现,1978—2013年中国接近1/2的省份存在资本相对劳动配置过度的现象,而且这种资本错配现象没有明显的地区差异。实证研究表明,1978—2013年中国资本回报率嬗变是资本错配程度降低等带来的整体经济基本面长期改善和金融危机等短期冲击造成的负面影响综合作用的结果。期间,资本错配降低显著提高资本回报率水平,资本错配程度每降低1个标准差会使得资本回报率上升约0.11个标准差,资本错配程度降低对于资本回报率的下行存在显著的支撑作用。进一步分析发现,资本错配对于资本回报率的影响具有地区异质性和改革阶段异质性。因此,中国经济长期可持续发展具有良好基础。
[Abstract]:The rate of return on capital is of great significance for understanding the macro-economic operation. This paper aims to measure the rate of return on capital and the degree of capital mismatch, and to examine the influence of the degree of capital mismatch on the rate of return on capital, and then to determine the long-term sustainable development of China's economy. The speed of capital deepening, the growth rate of technological progress, the multiplier effect and the speed of capital mismatch are four parts, and the measurement model of capital mismatch influence capital return rate is constructed, and the capital return rate and mismatch index are combined to make an empirical analysis of capital mismatch capital return rate in China's economy. The results are 1978. The phenomenon of excessive capital allocation in China's close to 1/2 in 2013, and there is no obvious regional difference in this kind of capital mismatch. The empirical study shows that the evolution of China's capital return rate from 1978 to 2013 is the short-term improvement of the overall economic fundamentals and the financial crisis caused by the decrease of capital mismatch degree. The result of the comprehensive effect of the negative impact caused by the attack. During the period, the capital mismatch decrease significantly increases the capital return rate, and the capital mismatch degree is reduced by 1 standard deviations, which will increase the capital return rate by about 0.11 standard deviations, and the lower capital mismatch degree has a significant support effect on the downlink of the capital return. The impact of capital mismatch on return on capital has regional heterogeneity and heterogeneity in the reform stage. Therefore, the long-term sustainable development of China's economy has a good foundation.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院经济研究所;厦门大学经济学院;厦门大学经济研究所;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“矫正要素配置扭曲与促进经济有效增长”(批准号16JJD790031);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“行业工资差异、劳动力错配与我国产业结构调整和产出增长”(批准号16YJA790003) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“需求结构转化背景下提高消费对经济增长贡献的研究”(批准号15ZDC011)
【分类号】：F124

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