经济增长、国际贸易与我国碳排放关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 11:55

本文选题：环境 + 经济增长　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：由人类温室气体排放增加引起的全球气候变暖已成为了不争的事实，这对全球经济、社会以及环境的可持续发展带来了严重的威胁。对于我国而言，伴随着改革开放的不断推进，我国经济以及国际贸易取得较快的发展，目前已成为了世界第二大经济体和第一货物贸易大国，但与此同时，我们也应看到经济发展过程中产生的一些负面问题：资源短缺、生态环境破坏等。以CO2排放为例，2005年我国已超过美国成为了全球最大的CO2排放国，2011年我国CO2排放总量占全世界排放总量的25.380%。在此背景下，本文深入探讨了我国经济增长与CO2排放、国际贸易与CO2排放之间的关系。具体研究内容如下：首先，将自然资源环境污染因素纳入了一个新古典增长模型和两个内生增长模型，在一般均衡框架下探讨了经济最优增长路径是否存在以及存在条件，并得出了产出弹性、人力资本效率系数、消费者偏好参数和污染控制程度指数对最优平衡增长路径的影响。其次，对经济增长与CO2排放间的双向关系进行了分析，，并对EKC假说是否成立进行了计量检验。由于EKC检验对数据、模型以及方法的选择较为敏感，因此，本文从多个角度对上述问题进行了分析，包括采用不同的数据类型（1960-2011年全国的时间序列数据、1995-2011年30个省的面板数据）、不同计量模型（单方程模型、联立方程模型）、不同层面（全国层面、基于面板门限回归结果的分组层面）、不同计量方法（边界检验、自回归分布滞后模型、三阶段最小二乘估计法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型等）。最后，国际贸易与CO2排放关系的实证分析。以Grossman and Krueger的贸易环境效应分解框架为依据，以此为基础建立了联立方程模型，并以加入WTO为临界点，通过引入时间虚拟变量，对比分析了两阶段国际贸易对我国CO2排放影响存在的差异，并计算得到了规模效应、结构效应和技术效应的具体数值。在联立方程模型估计的基础上，通过建立新的计量模型对“要素禀赋假说”和“污染天堂假说”进行了实证检验。研究结论表明： ①在新古典增长模型中，最优经济增长不可持续，而在人力资本模型包含人力资本和RD的内生增长模型中，当满足一定条件时，即可实现经济与资源环境间的可持续发展。 ②基于全国层面时间序列数据的经济增长与CO2排放间的估计结果表明，产出方程和污染方程的变量间均存在着长期稳定的协整关系。无论是短期还是长期，我国CO2排放与收入之间均表现为“倒N型”曲线关系，并且，由于第一个转折点对应的收入水平很低和所有样本数据均远大于该值，因此，可以认为上述两者间为“倒U型”曲线关系，即CO2排放的EKC假说在我国是成立的。 ③基于全国层面面板数据的经济增长与碳排放间的分析结果表明：经济增长与CO2排放之间仍表现为“倒N型”曲线关系，但从目前来看，两者间具有双向的作用关系，即：经济增长会对碳减排产生不利影响，与此同时，降低碳排放水平也会对经济增长产生负面影响。工业结构、贸易开放度和城市化水平对碳排放产生了不利影响，能源强度、一次能源消费结构和环境规制的碳排放效应则正好相反。 ④基于分组层面的EKC曲线研究结果表明：以城市化水平和工业化水平为分组变量，基于面板门限回归结果可将我国30个省划分为7个组。7组中CO2排放与收入之间均呈现出“倒N型”曲线关系，但对于每组而言，转折点对应的收入水平以及达到的年份均存在着较大差异，并且相同变量对不同组别碳排放的影响程度也不尽相同。我国经济发展路径可以划分为4个阶段：初始阶段、过渡阶段1、过渡阶段2和后期阶段，其中过渡阶段1面临着较为严重的环境问题，且有17个省份落入了该阶段，因此，从整体来看我国面临的碳排放问题较为严峻。 ⑤国际贸易与CO2排放关系的研究结果表明：入世后规模效应和技术效应的绝对值增加，结构效应减小，但由于规模效应使环境恶化的程度大于结构效应和技术效应对环境的有利程度之和，因此入世后国际贸易对我国CO2排放的不利影响程度增加。FEH和PHH在我国均成立，但由于环境规制因素起主导作用，从而导致了结构效应对碳排放产生了不利影响。针对理论分析以及实证分析得到的结论，本文分别从产业结构、能源强度、一次能源消费结构、城市化因素、环境规制以及国际贸易等角度提出了我国碳减排的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The global warming caused by the increase of human greenhouse gas emissions has become an indisputable fact, which poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of the global economy, society and the environment. For our country, with the continuous promotion of reform and opening up, China's economy and international trade have made rapid development, and now it has become the world. At the same time, we should also see some negative problems in the process of economic development, such as the shortage of resources, the destruction of the ecological environment and so on. In the case of CO2 emission, China has exceeded the United States in 2005 as the largest CO2 producer in the world. In 2011, the total emission of our country's CO2 emissions accounted for the whole world emissions. Under the background of total 25.380%., this paper discusses the relationship between China's economic growth and CO2 emissions, and the relationship between international trade and CO2 emissions. The specific contents are as follows:
First, the natural resources and environmental pollution factors are brought into a new classical growth model and two endogenous growth models. Under the general equilibrium framework, the existence and conditions of the optimal economic growth path are discussed, and the output elasticity, the human capital efficiency coefficient, the preference parameter of the consumer and the pollution control degree index are obtained. The impact of a balanced growth path.
Secondly, the two-way relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed, and a measurement test is carried out on whether the EKC hypothesis is established. Because EKC tests are sensitive to the selection of data, models and methods, this paper analyzes the above problems from a number of angles, including the use of different data types (1960-2011 years of national time). Inter sequence data, panel data of 30 provinces in 1995-2011 years), different measurement models (single equation model, simultaneous equation model), different levels (national level, group level based on panel threshold regression results), different measurement methods (boundary test, autoregressive distribution lag model, three stage least square estimation method, fixed effect model and random) The effect model and so on.
Finally, the empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and CO2 emissions is based on the framework of the trade environmental effect decomposition of Grossman and Krueger, based on which a simultaneous equation model is established, and the effect of the two stages of international trade on the emission of CO2 emissions in China is compared and analyzed by introducing the time virtual variable by introducing the WTO as the critical point. The specific values of scale effect, structure effect and technical effect are calculated. On the basis of the estimation of the simultaneous equation model, the "factor endowment hypothesis" and "pollution paradise hypothesis" are empirically tested through the establishment of a new measurement model.
(1) in the neoclassical growth model, the optimal economic growth is not sustainable, while the human capital model contains the endogenous growth model of human capital and RD, and the sustainable development between the economic and the resource environment can be realized when certain conditions are met.
(2) the estimated results between economic growth and CO2 emissions based on national level time series data show that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the output equation and the pollution equation. Both the CO2 emission and the income of our country show the "inverted N" curve relationship, and the first turning point is due to the relationship between the output equation and the pollution equation. The corresponding income level is very low and all the sample data are far greater than that. Therefore, it is considered that the above two are "inverted U" curves, that is, the EKC hypothesis of CO2 emission is established in our country.
(3) the analysis of economic growth and carbon emissions based on the national level panel data shows that the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is still a "inverted N" curve, but from now on, there is a two-way relationship between the two, that is, economic growth will have adverse effects on carbon emission reduction, and at the same time reduce carbon emissions. It also has a negative impact on economic growth. Industrial structure, trade openness and urbanization level have a negative impact on carbon emissions, energy intensity, the first energy consumption structure and the environmental regulation of carbon emissions are the opposite.
(4) the results of the EKC curve based on the group level show that, with the urbanization level and the industrialization level as the grouping variables, the panel threshold regression results can divide the 30 provinces into 7 groups of our country into the "inverted N" curve relationship between the CO2 emission and the income in the group of 7 groups, but for each group, the income level corresponding to the turning point is on the level of income. There are great differences in the years and the effects of the same variables on the carbon emissions of different groups. The path of economic development in China can be divided into 4 stages: the initial stage, the transition stage 1, the transition stage 2 and the later stage, of which the 1 sides of the transition stage are facing more serious environmental problems, and there are 17 provinces. As a result, the carbon emission problem faced by our country is more serious.
The study on the relationship between international trade and CO2 emission shows that the absolute value of scale effect and technical effect increases and the structural effect decreases after China's entry into WTO, but the extent of environmental degradation is greater than that of the structural and technical effects on the environment. Therefore, the adverse effects of international trade on China's CO2 emissions after China's entry into WTO .FEH and PHH are all established in China. However, environmental regulation plays a leading role, resulting in structural effects on carbon emissions.
In view of the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of carbon emission reduction in China from the aspects of industrial structure, energy intensity, primary energy consumption structure, urbanization factors, environmental regulation and international trade.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F752;F205

【参考文献】