新常态下浙江潜在经济增长率的测算与分析——基于2005～2015年面板数据

发布时间：2018-07-11 11:27

本文选题：新常态 + 潜在经济增长率　；参考：《财经论丛》2017年11期

【摘要】：本文以2005~2015年浙江省市域面板数据为样本,依据劳动增强型的结构时变弹性模型,测算浙江潜在的经济增长率。研究结果发现,浙江人力资本产出弹性明显低于资本存量和劳动力产出弹性,三者变化的幅度不明显;浙江东北部地区的劳动力和人力资本产出弹性高于西南部地区,西南部地区的资本存量产出弹性日渐高于东北部地区;浙江实际经济增长率总体呈现波动下滑态势,增速变动不仅受潜在经济增速变动等内在因素影响,也受需求管理等外在因素影响。最后,从教育体制改革、需求管理优化和区域发展协同等方面提出相关的政策启示。
[Abstract]:Based on the urban panel data of Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2015, this paper calculates the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province based on the labor enhanced time-varying elastic model. The results show that the output elasticity of human capital in Zhejiang Province is obviously lower than that in capital stock and labor force, and the range of the three changes is not obvious, and the elasticity of labor force and human capital output in northeast Zhejiang is higher than that in southwest China. The elasticity of capital stock output in southwest China is higher than that in northeast area, the real economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province is fluctuating and declining, and the change of growth rate is not only affected by internal factors, such as the change of potential economic growth rate, etc. Also affected by external factors such as demand management. Finally, this paper puts forward some relevant policy implications from the aspects of educational system reform, demand management optimization and regional development synergy.
【作者单位】：浙江大学城市学院商学院;辽宁大学经济学院;浙江万里学院商学院;
【基金】：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY17G030001) 国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJL008);国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA056);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD017)
【分类号】：F127;F224

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