中国对老挝基础设施投资的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-11 12:23

本文选题：中国 + 老挝　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：老挝作为一个发展中国家,基础设施不仅水平落后,而且严重影响了经济发展。2013年中国政府"一带一路"的提出和实施,为两国基础设施合作创造了有利条件。正是在这种背景下,本文选取中国在老挝公路、铁路、电力等基础设施投资及其影响因素为研究主题,希望为老挝政府在基础设施领域的建设与发展提供政策参考与发展思路。首先,在国内外文献综述的基础上,本文采用2000-2014年中国在老挝基础设施投资的详实数据,不仅从整体层面描述了中国在老挝基础设施的投资金额,而且从公路、铁路、水电等部门层面描述了基础设施投资的具体分布。其次,本文采用SWOT分析法对中国在老挝基础设施投资进行了理论分析,其中优势主要体现为老挝的自然资源相对比较丰富,与中国地理位置毗邻,有利于两国产品的互相来往;劣势主要表现为基础设施水平落后、宏观管理落后、产业链缺失、投资法尚不完善等,限制了老挝吸引中国基础设施投资的步伐;机遇主要体现为包括中国在内的很多国家为了争取老挝国家发展条件好且潜力巨大的投资项目,纷纷向老挝进行投资;挑战则主要体现为大规模的基础设施投资会对老挝经济主体性冲击、相关产业和企业发展带来挑战。再次,本文对中国在老挝基础设施投资的影响因素进行实证检验,即采用2000-2014年中国对老挝基础设施投资的时间序列数据,运用ARIMAX估计法进行基准分析。结果表明,中国对老挝基础设施投资的数量与中老两国宏观经济因素、两国贸易因素以及经济全球化因素均存在显著的长期均衡关系。最后,本文在总结全文结论的基础上,一方面在国家层面提出老挝政府首脑应与中国建立经常性沟通机制,加强中国对老挝基础设施投资项目谈判,为中老两国企业在基础设施方面的合作创造条件。另一方面在老挝省级政府层面提出应与中国方面加强沟通,制定基础设施投资的具体细节,明确中国与老挝双方的权利义务关系,监督基础设施建设的顺利进行。
[Abstract]:As a developing country, Laos has not only lagged behind in infrastructure, but also seriously affected its economic development. The proposal and implementation of "Belt and Road" by the Chinese government in 2013 created favorable conditions for infrastructure cooperation between the two countries. It is under this background that this paper chooses China's infrastructure investment in Laos, such as roads, railways, electric power and other infrastructure investment as the research theme, hoping to provide policy reference and development ideas for the Lao government in the field of infrastructure construction and development. First of all, on the basis of literature review at home and abroad, this paper uses the detailed data of China's infrastructure investment in Laos from 2000 to 2014. It not only describes the amount of Chinese infrastructure investment in Laos from the overall level, but also from roads and railways. Hydropower and other sectoral levels describe the specific distribution of infrastructure investment. Secondly, this paper uses SWOT analysis method to analyze China's infrastructure investment in Laos. The advantages of SWOT analysis are that Laos is relatively rich in natural resources, adjacent to China's geographical position, conducive to the exchange of products between the two countries. The disadvantages include backward infrastructure level, backward macro-management, lack of industrial chain, imperfect investment law, etc., which limit the pace of Laos to attract Chinese infrastructure investment. Opportunities are mainly reflected in many countries, including China, in order to strive for the Lao national development conditions and great potential investment projects, one after another to invest in Laos; The challenge is that large-scale investment in infrastructure will impact the economic subjectivity of Laos and bring challenges to the development of related industries and enterprises. Thirdly, this paper empirically tests the influencing factors of China's infrastructure investment in Laos, that is, using the time series data of China's infrastructure investment in Laos from 2000 to 2014, using Arima X estimation method to carry out the benchmark analysis. The results show that there is a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between the amount of Chinese infrastructure investment in Laos and the macroeconomic factors, trade factors and economic globalization factors between China and Laos. Finally, on the basis of summing up the conclusions of this paper, on the one hand, it is proposed at the national level that the Lao Government should establish a regular communication mechanism with China to strengthen China's negotiations on infrastructure investment projects in Laos. To create conditions for cooperation in infrastructure between Chinese and Lao enterprises. On the other hand, at the level of provincial government of Laos, we should strengthen communication with China, formulate the specific details of infrastructure investment, clarify the relationship between rights and obligations between China and Laos, and supervise the smooth progress of infrastructure construction.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125

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