我国城乡通货膨胀的福利成本差异研究
发布时间：2018-07-15 15:20
【摘要】：通货膨胀的福利成本研究自二十世纪六十年代开始就已经逐渐得到国际学者的广泛关注。经济学家普遍认同,较高的通货膨胀水平会阻碍市场价格机制优化资源配置这一基本功能的发挥,使社会经济发展偏离帕累托最优状态,造成社会福利纯损失。自改革开放以来,我国经历了二十世纪八十年代末和九十年代中期的高通货膨胀,也维持了1996年后长达十年的物价稳定,直到2007年开始了最新一轮的非平衡型结构性通货膨胀,同时由于我国城乡二元经济结构的特殊国情,我国农村居民和城市居民实质上面临不同的物价水平和通货膨胀成本。从2001年开始农村CPI一直高于城市,且物价上涨速度快于城市的趋势并没有改变,最终通货膨胀的福利成本会给农村居民带来更大压力。 因此,政府需要在当前复杂的经济形势下合理控制物价水平,温和的通货膨胀可以减少失业率,刺激经济发展,而过高的通货膨胀会造成社会资源无效配置,社会承担过高的成本,本文试图量化通货膨胀福利成本,帮助政府寻找合理的物价水平,并在最小化福利损失的同时,努力减少城乡居民生活水平影响差距,兼顾社会公平。 根据Baily的剩余三角形模型,本文首先利用1992-2012年我国狭义货币供应量、银行同业拆借利率和GDP指标构造长期货币需求函数,并得到我国通货膨胀福利成本。经过计算可以发现,实际的福利损失并没有想象中那么大,即使在1994年通货膨胀率超过24%的背景下,当年的通胀福利损失也只有620亿元,也就是说,通货膨胀水平和国民生产总值共同决定了福利成本。同时,在1998年左右的通货紧缩时期该福利损失也并没有消失,这不仅验证了通货紧缩对经济的负面影响,也表明通胀水平只是影响福利成本的因素之一。 另一方面本文结合我国城乡二元经济结构特点在原模型的基础上改进货币需求函数,以调整后的一年期贷款基准利率和储蓄率为指标分别构建城乡长期货币需求函数,从简化的福利成本模型可以看出,无论通货膨胀还是通货紧缩时期,无论农村CPI高于还是低于城市CPI,农村居民承担的通货膨胀福利成本比例均高于城市居民,差距最大时接近0.015%。虽然福利损失对通货膨胀的反应具有一定滞后性,但两者的波动趋势具有一致性,这些都表明,城乡居民的通货膨胀福利成本差异并非由通胀水平单一决定,还受其他诸多因素影响。 本质上看,造成这种差异的根源在于我国城乡二元经济结构和市场化水平,具体表现为城乡通货膨胀水平不同,金融压抑性质的政策导致利率未能根据资金市场供需状况自由波动,市场并未完全发挥对资源配置的基础性作用,同时部分模型中假设的条件在我国并未得到满足,如稳定的货币增长率和适应性预期的调整作用等,此外居民资产持有结构、消费结构和收入水平等因素都对城乡居民福利成本差异造成影响。 最后,本文依据计量结果的比较分析提出了相关政策建议,这些建议将为政府在治理通货膨胀过程中产生的福利成本分配问题提供有价值的参考。
[Abstract]:The research on the welfare cost of inflation has gradually gained wide attention from international scholars since 1960s. Economists generally agree that high inflation will prevent the market price mechanism to optimize the basic function of resource allocation, and make social and economic development deviate from Pareto's optimal state and cause society. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced high inflation at the end of the 1980s and the middle of the 90s, and maintained price stability for up to ten years after 1996, and began the latest round of non balanced structural inflation until 2007, with a special country of two yuan economic structure in urban and rural areas of our country. In fact, rural residents and urban residents in China are faced with different price levels and inflation costs. Since 2001, the rural CPI has been higher than the city, and the price rises faster than the urban trend and has not changed. Finally, the welfare cost of inflation will bring greater pressure to the rural residents.
Therefore, the government needs to control the price level reasonably in the current complex economic situation, moderate inflation can reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economic development, and the high inflation will cause the invalid allocation of social resources and the high cost of the society. This article tries to quantify the cost of inflation welfare and help the government to find reasonable things. At the same time, while minimizing welfare losses, efforts should be made to reduce the gap between urban and rural residents' living standards and give consideration to social equity.
According to the residual triangle model of Baily, this paper first constructs a long-term money demand function by using the narrow sense of money supply, interbank lending rate and GDP index for 1992-2012 years, and obtains the cost of inflation welfare in China. In the context of the inflation rate of more than 24%, the inflationary welfare loss of the year was also only 62 billion yuan, that is to say, the level of inflation and gross national product jointly decided the cost of welfare. At the same time, the welfare loss in the period of deflation in around 1998 did not disappear, which not only verified the negative effects of deflation on the economy, but also indicated that the deflation was negative to the economy. Inflation is only one of the factors that affect welfare costs.
On the other hand, this paper, based on the two yuan economic structure in China, improves the money demand function on the basis of the original model, and constructs the long-term money demand function of the urban and rural areas by adjusting the benchmark interest rate and saving rate of the one-year loan. From the simplified welfare cost model, it can be seen that both inflation and deflation can be seen. In the period, whether the rural CPI is higher or lower than the city CPI, the proportion of the rural residents' inflationary welfare costs is higher than that of the urban residents, and the maximum gap is close to 0.015%., although the response of the welfare loss to the inflation has a certain lag, but the fluctuation trend of the two is the same, which all indicate that the inflation and happiness of the urban and rural residents are good. The difference in profit cost is not determined by the single level of inflation, but also influenced by many other factors.
In essence, the root of this difference lies in the two yuan economic structure and the market level of urban and rural areas in China. The concrete performance is that the level of urban and rural inflation is different. The policy of financial repression has caused the interest rate to not fluctuate freely according to the supply and demand situation of the capital market, and the market does not fully play the basic role in the allocation of resources. The assumptions in the model are not satisfied in our country, such as the stable rate of money growth and the adjustment of adaptive expectation. In addition, the ownership structure, the consumption structure and the income level of the residents all affect the difference of the welfare cost of the urban and rural residents.
Finally, based on the comparison and analysis of the results of measurement, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which will provide valuable reference for the government to allocate the welfare cost in the process of controlling inflation.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F126
[Abstract]:The research on the welfare cost of inflation has gradually gained wide attention from international scholars since 1960s. Economists generally agree that high inflation will prevent the market price mechanism to optimize the basic function of resource allocation, and make social and economic development deviate from Pareto's optimal state and cause society. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced high inflation at the end of the 1980s and the middle of the 90s, and maintained price stability for up to ten years after 1996, and began the latest round of non balanced structural inflation until 2007, with a special country of two yuan economic structure in urban and rural areas of our country. In fact, rural residents and urban residents in China are faced with different price levels and inflation costs. Since 2001, the rural CPI has been higher than the city, and the price rises faster than the urban trend and has not changed. Finally, the welfare cost of inflation will bring greater pressure to the rural residents.
Therefore, the government needs to control the price level reasonably in the current complex economic situation, moderate inflation can reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economic development, and the high inflation will cause the invalid allocation of social resources and the high cost of the society. This article tries to quantify the cost of inflation welfare and help the government to find reasonable things. At the same time, while minimizing welfare losses, efforts should be made to reduce the gap between urban and rural residents' living standards and give consideration to social equity.
According to the residual triangle model of Baily, this paper first constructs a long-term money demand function by using the narrow sense of money supply, interbank lending rate and GDP index for 1992-2012 years, and obtains the cost of inflation welfare in China. In the context of the inflation rate of more than 24%, the inflationary welfare loss of the year was also only 62 billion yuan, that is to say, the level of inflation and gross national product jointly decided the cost of welfare. At the same time, the welfare loss in the period of deflation in around 1998 did not disappear, which not only verified the negative effects of deflation on the economy, but also indicated that the deflation was negative to the economy. Inflation is only one of the factors that affect welfare costs.
On the other hand, this paper, based on the two yuan economic structure in China, improves the money demand function on the basis of the original model, and constructs the long-term money demand function of the urban and rural areas by adjusting the benchmark interest rate and saving rate of the one-year loan. From the simplified welfare cost model, it can be seen that both inflation and deflation can be seen. In the period, whether the rural CPI is higher or lower than the city CPI, the proportion of the rural residents' inflationary welfare costs is higher than that of the urban residents, and the maximum gap is close to 0.015%., although the response of the welfare loss to the inflation has a certain lag, but the fluctuation trend of the two is the same, which all indicate that the inflation and happiness of the urban and rural residents are good. The difference in profit cost is not determined by the single level of inflation, but also influenced by many other factors.
In essence, the root of this difference lies in the two yuan economic structure and the market level of urban and rural areas in China. The concrete performance is that the level of urban and rural inflation is different. The policy of financial repression has caused the interest rate to not fluctuate freely according to the supply and demand situation of the capital market, and the market does not fully play the basic role in the allocation of resources. The assumptions in the model are not satisfied in our country, such as the stable rate of money growth and the adjustment of adaptive expectation. In addition, the ownership structure, the consumption structure and the income level of the residents all affect the difference of the welfare cost of the urban and rural residents.
Finally, based on the comparison and analysis of the results of measurement, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which will provide valuable reference for the government to allocate the welfare cost in the process of controlling inflation.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F126
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相关期刊论文 前10条
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