技术进步与金融结构的协同演化研究：理论和实证
发布时间：2018-07-26 11:01
【摘要】：从国家经济发展的史实来看，技术进步与金融结构在本质上都是演化的，二者蕴含在一个动态的协同演化系统中，然而，国内外现有的主流文献忽视了技术进步与金融结构的协同演化特征，演化经济学文献也未能将技术进步和金融结构纳入到协同演化分析的框架中。在实践中，政策决策者忽视了技术进步与金融结构协同发展的重要性，比如，2000年的互联网泡沫和2008年爆发的世界性金融危机表明，即使是在技术水平最高、金融市场最发达的美国，同样也存在技术进步与金融结构的严重失衡的问题。在我国，仍然是政府主导的科技金融体制，将金融定位于服务者角色，着重解决技术进步过程中的融资问题，忽略了金融系统自身发展的规律，没有注意到二者之间的协同发展对于科技创新和技术进步所具有的重要作用，使得长期以来，我国市场融资结构严重不平衡，特别是创新型很强的中小企业在融资上的“麦克米伦缺口”（MacmillanGap）问题十分突出。因此，在知识经济迅猛发展和全球金融危机等复杂国际背景下，对技术进步与金融结构的协同演化关系进行系统研究，无疑具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。 协同演化是在特定的时间和空间情境（Context）中，两个或两个以上的具有演化特征的主体持续地互动与演变，，其演化行为相互影响，演化路径相互交织的现象。技术进步的演化特征在空间维度上表现为技术创新在微观的企业层面上形成的规模效应、在中观的产业层面上形成的集聚效应和乘数效应、在宏观层面上通过技术—经济范式转型产生的周期波动效应；在时间维度上表现为旧知识被淘汰和新知识产生的新陈代谢的生命周期过程。金融结构的演化在时间维度上表现为金融结构主导模式的演化即“早期的实物货币交易的初期阶段→信用货币创造的银行主导阶段→非货币金融工具扩张的金融市场主导阶段”；在空间维度上表现为金融工具和金融机构的种类逐渐丰富与多样化，其功能逐渐改善与多元化。因此，技术进步与金融结构都具有鲜明的时空动态演化特征，使我们可以将其纳入到一个协同演化的分析框架中去审视它们的互动与演变。 技术进步与金融结构的协同演化框架是通过二者之间的协同演化机制紧密联系在一起的。协同演化机制包括两个相互联系的两个方面，一是金融结构的演化如何影响技术进步，二是技术进步如何促使金融结构的变迁。金融结构对技术进步的影响机制包括金融的融资机制、金融的风险分散机制和金融的信息审查机制；技术进步对金融结构的影响机制包括技术进步的金融技术供给机制、技术进步的金融需求创造机制以及技术进步的金融投资回报机制。技术进步与金融结构通过协同演化机制紧密耦合在一起，相互作用、相互渗透、协同演化，并协同演化过程中，表现出系统开放性与自适应性、系统主体间的双向因果关系、系统主体间的正反馈关系、系统各主体相互作用的非线性和复杂性以及系统涨落性、突变性与功能涌现性等演化系统的典型特征。因此，我们可以将“技术进步—金融结构”视为一个复合演化系统，利用现代科学的复杂适应系统理论和协同学理论探索其协同演化规律。我们借鉴协同学理论的“复合系统协调度模型”，构建“技术进步—金融结构”复合系统的协同度模型，该模型综合考虑了技术进步与金融结构两个子系统在协同演化过程中的状况，它提供了一种判断复合系统协同演化程度的度量标准。 我们系统考察了美国、日本以及中国的技术进步与金融结构的协同演化状况，并用技术进步与金融结构复合系统协同度模型对其进行实证测算。结论表明，美国和日本的技术进步与金融结构的协同演化状况与其国家发展的经济周期密切相关。当经济处于快速发展的繁荣阶段时，技术进步与金融结构呈现出良好的协同发展状态，当经济处于衰退或不稳定阶段时，技术进步与金融结构的协同度就会出现波动，从而为Perez（2002）在考察技术革命与金融资本演化的过程中提出的“技术—经济”范式变革规律提供了实证依据。不稳定性、动态性和复杂性是技术进步与金融结构协同演化进程的重要特征，技术进步与金融结构之间的交互式螺旋式的正反馈机制并且保持结构性平衡是二者实现良性协同发展的前提。相比较而言，中国自改革开放以来，经济处于高速增长的上升周期，技术进步与间接金融子系统虽然形成了一定程度的相互促进的协同发展机制，但协同度较小，并且技术进步与直接金融子系统的协同度波动较大，甚至有些年份出现负值，表明中国技术进步子系统与直接金融子系统还未形成良好的协同发展机制。 进一步地，如果我们将技术进步与金融结构的协同演化推广到产业的层面，就会表现为高新技术产业与金融产业的共生演化（Symbiotic Evolution）现象。我们通过构建高新技术产业和金融产业共生演化的Logistic模型，并用中国1995-2012年的高新技术产业和金融产业的时间序列数据，对二者的共生演化进行实证检验。结果表明，分时段叠加Logistic共生演化模型能够很好地描述中国金融产业与高新技术产业的共生演化过程，且其共生演化模式属于非对称互惠共生，没有实现具有最大共生能量、最稳定和最有效率的对称性互惠共生。 因此，为促进我国技术进步与金融结构形成长期良性的协同发展机制，促使我国金融产业与高新技术产业实现对称互惠共生演化，我们提出健全以银行为核心的金融机构综合服务体系、完善以股票市场为核心的多元化资本市场体系、健全有利于科技创新和金融体系协同发展的制度支撑体系以及建立科学的公共科技金融投资绩效评价体系和科技创新资源共享平台等政策建议。
[Abstract]:From the historical facts of the national economic development, the technological progress and the financial structure are essentially evolutional, and the two are contained in a dynamic cooperative evolution system. However, the existing mainstream literature at home and abroad ignores the Synergetic Evolution Characteristics of the technological progress and the financial structure, and the literature of evolutionary economics has also failed to make technical progress and financial structure. In the framework of Synergetic Evolution, policy makers ignore the importance of synergy between technological progress and the financial structure in practice, for example, the 2000 Internet bubble and the world financial crisis that broke out in 2008 showed that even at the highest level of technology, the most developed financial markets in the United States also had technological progress. The serious imbalance between the financial structure and the financial structure in China is still the government led scientific and technological financial system, positioning the finance in the role of the service provider, focusing on solving the financing problems in the process of technological progress, neglecting the law of the development of the financial system itself, and not paying attention to the cooperation between the two parties for scientific and technological innovation and technological progress. The important role is that the market financing structure of our country has been seriously unbalanced for a long time, especially the "Mcmillan gap" (MacmillanGap) problem of small and medium-sized enterprises with strong innovation type is very prominent. Therefore, in the complex international background of the rapid development of knowledge economy and the global financial crisis, the technical progress and finance are made. It is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically study the co evolution relationship of structures.
Synergetic Evolution is a continuous interaction and evolution of two or more subjects with evolutionary characteristics in a specific time and space situation (Context). Its evolutionary behavior affects each other and the evolutionary path intertwine. The evolutionary characteristics of technological progress represent the formation of technological innovation at the micro enterprise level in the spatial dimension. The scale effect, the agglomeration effect and multiplier effect formed at the middle view of the industrial level, the cyclical fluctuation effect produced by the transformation of the technological economic paradigm at the macro level; in the time dimension, the life cycle of the old knowledge is eliminated and the new knowledge produced by the new knowledge. The evolution of the financial structure is in the time dimension. The evolution of the leading mode of the financial structure is "the early stage of the early real money transaction, the leading stage of the credit money creation, the leading stage of the expansion of the non monetary financial instruments"; in the spatial dimension, the types of financial instruments and financial institutions are gradually enriched and diversified. As a result, both the technological progress and the financial structure have a distinct temporal and spatial dynamic evolution, so that we can incorporate it into a synergetic analysis framework to examine their interaction and evolution.
The Synergetic Evolution framework of technological progress and financial structure is closely linked through the cooperative evolution mechanism between the two. The cooperative evolution mechanism includes two interrelated two aspects. One is how the evolution of the financial structure affects the technological progress, and the two is how the technological progress makes the financial structure change. The financial structure is to the technology. The impact mechanism of progress includes financial financing mechanism, financial risk dispersion mechanism and financial information review mechanism; the impact mechanism of technological progress on financial structure includes the financial technology supply mechanism of technological progress, the creation mechanism of financial demand for technological progress and the return mechanism of financial investment in technological advance. The financial structure is tightly coupled, interacting, interpenetrating, CO evolving, and co evolving, and in the process of co evolution, it shows the openness and adaptability of the system, the two-way causal relationship between the main bodies, the positive feedback relationship between the systems, the nonlinear and complexity of the interaction of the main bodies of the system and the rise of the system. We can use the complex adaptive system theory of modern science and the synergetic theory to explore its co evolution law. We use the synergetic theory of "complex system coordination degree model" for reference. Type ", construct the synergistic degree model of the" technological progress financial structure "complex system. The model comprehensively considers the situation of the two subsystems of the technological progress and the financial structure in the process of co evolution. It provides a measure to judge the degree of synergy evolution of the composite system.
We systematically examine the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States, Japan and China, and use the synergistic model of the composite system of technological progress and financial structure to carry out an empirical calculation. The conclusion shows that the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States and Japan is closely related to the economic cycle of the national development. When the economy is in the stage of rapid development and prosperity, technological progress and financial structure have a good state of synergy. When the economy is in the stage of recession or instability, the synergy of technological progress and financial structure will fluctuate, thus Perez (2002) is in the process of examining the technological revolution and the evolution of financial capital. It provides an empirical basis for the transformation of "technology economy" paradigm. Instability, dynamics and complexity are the important features of the process of co evolution between technological progress and financial structure. The interactive and positive feedback mechanism between the technological progress and the financial structure and the structural balance are the two virtuous cooperative development. In comparison, China has been in a high growth cycle since the reform and opening up. Although the technological progress and the indirect financial subsystem have formed a certain degree of mutual promotion mechanism, the coordination degree is small, and the coordination degree of the technological progress and direct golden thawing system fluctuates greatly, even in some years. A negative value indicates that China's technological progress subsystem has not yet formed a good synergy development mechanism with the direct financial subsystem.
Further, if we extend the synergy of technological progress and financial structure to the industrial level, we will show the Symbiotic Evolution phenomenon of high and new technology industry and financial industry. Through the construction of the Logistic model of high technology industry and financial industry, we use China for 1995-2012 years. The time series data of the new technology industry and the financial industry are tested for the symbiotic evolution of the two. The results show that the Logistic symbiotic evolution model can well describe the symbiotic evolution process of China's financial industry and high-tech industry, and its symbiotic evolution model is asymmetric mutualism. There is the largest symbiotic energy, the most stable and the most efficient symbiotic symbiosis.
Therefore, in order to promote the long-term and benign cooperative development mechanism of China's technological progress and financial structure, and promote the symmetrically and mutualism of China's financial industry and high and new technology industry, we put forward a sound comprehensive service system of banking as the core of the financial institutions, and improve the diversified capital market system with the core of the stock market as the core. The system is conducive to scientific and technological innovation and the coordinated development of the financial system, as well as the establishment of scientific public science and technology financial investment performance evaluation system and scientific and technological innovation resources sharing platform and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124.3;F832
本文编号：2145798
[Abstract]:From the historical facts of the national economic development, the technological progress and the financial structure are essentially evolutional, and the two are contained in a dynamic cooperative evolution system. However, the existing mainstream literature at home and abroad ignores the Synergetic Evolution Characteristics of the technological progress and the financial structure, and the literature of evolutionary economics has also failed to make technical progress and financial structure. In the framework of Synergetic Evolution, policy makers ignore the importance of synergy between technological progress and the financial structure in practice, for example, the 2000 Internet bubble and the world financial crisis that broke out in 2008 showed that even at the highest level of technology, the most developed financial markets in the United States also had technological progress. The serious imbalance between the financial structure and the financial structure in China is still the government led scientific and technological financial system, positioning the finance in the role of the service provider, focusing on solving the financing problems in the process of technological progress, neglecting the law of the development of the financial system itself, and not paying attention to the cooperation between the two parties for scientific and technological innovation and technological progress. The important role is that the market financing structure of our country has been seriously unbalanced for a long time, especially the "Mcmillan gap" (MacmillanGap) problem of small and medium-sized enterprises with strong innovation type is very prominent. Therefore, in the complex international background of the rapid development of knowledge economy and the global financial crisis, the technical progress and finance are made. It is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically study the co evolution relationship of structures.
Synergetic Evolution is a continuous interaction and evolution of two or more subjects with evolutionary characteristics in a specific time and space situation (Context). Its evolutionary behavior affects each other and the evolutionary path intertwine. The evolutionary characteristics of technological progress represent the formation of technological innovation at the micro enterprise level in the spatial dimension. The scale effect, the agglomeration effect and multiplier effect formed at the middle view of the industrial level, the cyclical fluctuation effect produced by the transformation of the technological economic paradigm at the macro level; in the time dimension, the life cycle of the old knowledge is eliminated and the new knowledge produced by the new knowledge. The evolution of the financial structure is in the time dimension. The evolution of the leading mode of the financial structure is "the early stage of the early real money transaction, the leading stage of the credit money creation, the leading stage of the expansion of the non monetary financial instruments"; in the spatial dimension, the types of financial instruments and financial institutions are gradually enriched and diversified. As a result, both the technological progress and the financial structure have a distinct temporal and spatial dynamic evolution, so that we can incorporate it into a synergetic analysis framework to examine their interaction and evolution.
The Synergetic Evolution framework of technological progress and financial structure is closely linked through the cooperative evolution mechanism between the two. The cooperative evolution mechanism includes two interrelated two aspects. One is how the evolution of the financial structure affects the technological progress, and the two is how the technological progress makes the financial structure change. The financial structure is to the technology. The impact mechanism of progress includes financial financing mechanism, financial risk dispersion mechanism and financial information review mechanism; the impact mechanism of technological progress on financial structure includes the financial technology supply mechanism of technological progress, the creation mechanism of financial demand for technological progress and the return mechanism of financial investment in technological advance. The financial structure is tightly coupled, interacting, interpenetrating, CO evolving, and co evolving, and in the process of co evolution, it shows the openness and adaptability of the system, the two-way causal relationship between the main bodies, the positive feedback relationship between the systems, the nonlinear and complexity of the interaction of the main bodies of the system and the rise of the system. We can use the complex adaptive system theory of modern science and the synergetic theory to explore its co evolution law. We use the synergetic theory of "complex system coordination degree model" for reference. Type ", construct the synergistic degree model of the" technological progress financial structure "complex system. The model comprehensively considers the situation of the two subsystems of the technological progress and the financial structure in the process of co evolution. It provides a measure to judge the degree of synergy evolution of the composite system.
We systematically examine the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States, Japan and China, and use the synergistic model of the composite system of technological progress and financial structure to carry out an empirical calculation. The conclusion shows that the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States and Japan is closely related to the economic cycle of the national development. When the economy is in the stage of rapid development and prosperity, technological progress and financial structure have a good state of synergy. When the economy is in the stage of recession or instability, the synergy of technological progress and financial structure will fluctuate, thus Perez (2002) is in the process of examining the technological revolution and the evolution of financial capital. It provides an empirical basis for the transformation of "technology economy" paradigm. Instability, dynamics and complexity are the important features of the process of co evolution between technological progress and financial structure. The interactive and positive feedback mechanism between the technological progress and the financial structure and the structural balance are the two virtuous cooperative development. In comparison, China has been in a high growth cycle since the reform and opening up. Although the technological progress and the indirect financial subsystem have formed a certain degree of mutual promotion mechanism, the coordination degree is small, and the coordination degree of the technological progress and direct golden thawing system fluctuates greatly, even in some years. A negative value indicates that China's technological progress subsystem has not yet formed a good synergy development mechanism with the direct financial subsystem.
Further, if we extend the synergy of technological progress and financial structure to the industrial level, we will show the Symbiotic Evolution phenomenon of high and new technology industry and financial industry. Through the construction of the Logistic model of high technology industry and financial industry, we use China for 1995-2012 years. The time series data of the new technology industry and the financial industry are tested for the symbiotic evolution of the two. The results show that the Logistic symbiotic evolution model can well describe the symbiotic evolution process of China's financial industry and high-tech industry, and its symbiotic evolution model is asymmetric mutualism. There is the largest symbiotic energy, the most stable and the most efficient symbiotic symbiosis.
Therefore, in order to promote the long-term and benign cooperative development mechanism of China's technological progress and financial structure, and promote the symmetrically and mutualism of China's financial industry and high and new technology industry, we put forward a sound comprehensive service system of banking as the core of the financial institutions, and improve the diversified capital market system with the core of the stock market as the core. The system is conducive to scientific and technological innovation and the coordinated development of the financial system, as well as the establishment of scientific public science and technology financial investment performance evaluation system and scientific and technological innovation resources sharing platform and other policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124.3;F832
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