中国经济增长的规模报酬机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 12:48

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济实现了长达30多年的高速增长。然而,中国过去的高速增长在很大程度上仍属于粗放型经济增长模式,在这种模式下,经济难以保持持续的增长。进入新常态以来,中国的GDP增速明显下滑,粗放式增长的弊端进一步显现。在这种局面下,如何转变传统的经济增长方式,迈进经济规模报酬递增的新常态,就显得尤为重要。而本文正是基于这样的背景下展开,通过探讨中国规模报酬的现状和形成机制,对中国实现经济增长方式转变具有重要指导意义。首先,本文在对规模报酬相关理论汇总分析的基础上,通过分析潜在增长率与GDP增长率的变动关系和三次产业的发展状况,发现中国经济增长已经进入了稳定的中高速发展阶段,传统意义上促进经济增长的各项红利正在逐渐消失,规模报酬递增的经济发展模式在新常态阶段还没有全面形成。因此,加快我国经济增长向规模报酬递增的增长方式转变已经刻不容缓。接着,本文从不同层面对中国经济增长进行规模报酬分析。先是通过构建生产函数验证了长期经济增长中规模报酬递增前提假设的合理性;同时采用非参数DEA方法对国民经济主要行业进行规模报酬判断,发现国民经济各行业主要呈非规模报酬递增的态势。随后,在相关文献汇总与理论分析的基础上,结合中国具体国情,将规模报酬递增形成机制的影响因素分为外部性因素、分工和专业化两部分,而这些因素都来自于厂商以外的力量。其中,外部性因素主要包括通过刺激FDI投入产生知识溢出和技术溢出、通过加大RD投资提升经济部门自身创新能力以及通过人力资本投资提升要素生产效率三个方面,三者合力促进规模报酬递增机制的形成。而分工和专业化对规模报酬递增的促进主要是通过分工与市场规模的动态演进机制实现的;紧接着建立实证模型,将上述理论分析中的影响因素纳入实证分析框架中,具体分析各因素对规模报酬的影响程度。最后通过分析实证检验结果,提出中国经济增长规模报酬递增的技术进步路径、结构转变路径以及制度建设路径,并给出本文的研究结论和待解决的问题。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved 30 years of high-speed growth. However, China's rapid growth in the past is still largely an extensive economic growth model, in which it is difficult to maintain sustained economic growth. Since entering the new normal, China's GDP growth rate has declined significantly, the abuse of extensive growth further revealed. In this situation, how to change the traditional mode of economic growth and step into the new normal of increasing returns of economic scale is particularly important. Based on this background, this paper discusses the present situation and formation mechanism of China's scale reward, which has important guiding significance for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. First of all, based on the analysis of scale reward theory, this paper analyzes the relationship between potential growth rate and GDP growth rate and the development of three industries. It is found that China's economic growth has entered a stable and high speed development stage, the dividends that promote economic growth in the traditional sense are gradually disappearing, and the economic development model of increasing returns of scale has not been fully formed in the new normal stage. Therefore, it is urgent to speed up the change from economic growth to increasing scale returns. Then, this article carries on the scale reward analysis to the Chinese economic growth from different aspects. First of all, the rationality of the hypothesis of increasing returns of scale in long-term economic growth is verified by constructing the production function, and the non-parametric DEA method is used to judge the compensation of scale in the main industries of the national economy. It is found that various industries of the national economy are mainly in the situation of increasing non-scale returns. Then, on the basis of relevant literature summary and theoretical analysis, combined with the specific conditions of China, the influencing factors of the mechanism of increasing returns of scale are divided into two parts: externality, division of labor and specialization. These factors all come from outside the firm. Among them, external factors mainly include knowledge spillover and technology spillover by stimulating FDI input, enhancing innovation ability of economic sector by increasing R D investment, and enhancing factor production efficiency through human capital investment. The three join forces to promote the formation of scale reward increasing mechanism. And the promotion of division of labor and specialization to the increase of scale returns is mainly realized through the dynamic evolution mechanism of division of labor and market scale, and then the empirical model is established, and the influencing factors in the above theoretical analysis are brought into the framework of empirical analysis. Specific analysis of the impact of various factors on the scale of reward. Finally, by analyzing the results of empirical test, the paper puts forward the path of technological progress, structural transformation and institutional construction of increasing returns on scale of economic growth in China, and gives the research conclusions and problems to be solved in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124

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