太原循环经济的系统动力学分析
发布时间：2018-08-08 16:43
【摘要】：太原市作为一个煤炭资源型城市，以丰富的煤炭资源为本地和我国经济的快速发展做出了巨大的贡献。然而严重依赖资源的传统生产方式也给太原经济社会的发展带来了一系列问题。资源和环境问题已经成为制约太原地区经济发展的重要因素。要实现更好更快地发展，必须要打破传统的发展模式，大力发展循环经济，实现可持续发展。 本文试图从循环经济的角度，借助系统动力学方法，对太原市的循环经济进行研究，分析相关的影响因素和调控变量，探索出适合太原的循环经济发展模式。 在理论方面，本文首先阐述了国内外对循环经济、区域循环经济的研究现状，相关理论和方法，包括概念的界定和内涵，为研究太原市循环经济奠定理论基础。其次介绍了系统动力学的基本思想和特点，指出系统动力学模型即可进行定性研究又能进行定量研究，并提出系统动力学在区域循环经济研究中的应用价值。 在实证方面，，建立系统动力学模型，对太原市循环经济进行模拟。通过对太原市循环经济进行定性分析，建立了太原市循环经济系统的系统动力学模型，以及人口、经济、环境、资源四个子系统的各个流图，从中选取出生率、第二产业比重、环保投入系数和回采率作为循环经济政策模拟的调控变量，模拟在不同的循环经济政策下系统各主要变量的变化情况，并根据模拟结果为太原市循环经济的实践提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:As a coal resource city, Taiyuan has made great contributions to the rapid development of local and Chinese economy with its abundant coal resources. However, the traditional mode of production, which relies heavily on resources, also brings a series of problems to the economic and social development of Taiyuan. Resources and environment problems have become an important factor restricting the economic development of Taiyuan area. In order to achieve better and faster development, we must break the traditional development model, vigorously develop circular economy and realize sustainable development. This paper attempts to study the circular economy in Taiyuan with the help of the system dynamics method from the perspective of circular economy, analyze the relevant influencing factors and control variables, and explore the development model of circular economy suitable for Taiyuan. In theory, this paper first describes the domestic and foreign research on circular economy, regional circular economy, relevant theories and methods, including the definition and connotation of the concept, for the study of circular economy in Taiyuan laid a theoretical foundation. Secondly, this paper introduces the basic ideas and characteristics of system dynamics, points out that the system dynamics model can be studied both qualitatively and quantitatively, and points out the application value of system dynamics in the study of regional circular economy. In the empirical aspect, the system dynamics model is established to simulate the circular economy in Taiyuan. Based on the qualitative analysis of the circular economy in Taiyuan, the system dynamics model of the circular economy system in Taiyuan is established, and the flow charts of the four subsystems of population, economy, environment and resources are established, from which the birth rate and the proportion of the secondary industry are selected. The environmental protection input coefficient and recovery rate are used as the regulation variables of circular economy policy simulation, and the changes of the main variables of the system under different circular economy policies are simulated. According to the simulation results, the policy suggestions are provided for the practice of circular economy in Taiyuan.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F124.5
本文编号：2172395
[Abstract]:As a coal resource city, Taiyuan has made great contributions to the rapid development of local and Chinese economy with its abundant coal resources. However, the traditional mode of production, which relies heavily on resources, also brings a series of problems to the economic and social development of Taiyuan. Resources and environment problems have become an important factor restricting the economic development of Taiyuan area. In order to achieve better and faster development, we must break the traditional development model, vigorously develop circular economy and realize sustainable development. This paper attempts to study the circular economy in Taiyuan with the help of the system dynamics method from the perspective of circular economy, analyze the relevant influencing factors and control variables, and explore the development model of circular economy suitable for Taiyuan. In theory, this paper first describes the domestic and foreign research on circular economy, regional circular economy, relevant theories and methods, including the definition and connotation of the concept, for the study of circular economy in Taiyuan laid a theoretical foundation. Secondly, this paper introduces the basic ideas and characteristics of system dynamics, points out that the system dynamics model can be studied both qualitatively and quantitatively, and points out the application value of system dynamics in the study of regional circular economy. In the empirical aspect, the system dynamics model is established to simulate the circular economy in Taiyuan. Based on the qualitative analysis of the circular economy in Taiyuan, the system dynamics model of the circular economy system in Taiyuan is established, and the flow charts of the four subsystems of population, economy, environment and resources are established, from which the birth rate and the proportion of the secondary industry are selected. The environmental protection input coefficient and recovery rate are used as the regulation variables of circular economy policy simulation, and the changes of the main variables of the system under different circular economy policies are simulated. According to the simulation results, the policy suggestions are provided for the practice of circular economy in Taiyuan.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F124.5
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