论新时期中国实体经济的发展

发布时间：2018-08-12 10:51

【摘要】：有关实体经济与虚拟经济的关系一直是学术界关注的主题,而近年来中国经济存在的"脱实向虚"问题又是政府努力解决的重大经济结构问题。然而,有关什么是实体经济以及实体经济包括的范围,无论是在理论层面,还是在政策层面,并没有形成共识。本文创新性地提出了一个关于实体经济分类的分层框架,认为第一个层次的实体经济(R_0)是制造业,这是实体经济核心部分,可以理解为最狭义的实体经济;第二个层次的实体经济(R_1)包括R_0、农业、建筑业和除制造业以外的其他工业,这是实体经济的主体部分,是一般意义或者传统意义上的实体经济;第三个层次的实体经济(R_2)包括R_1、批发和零售业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、住宿和餐饮业,以及除金融业、房地产业以外的其他所有服务业,这是实体经济的整体内容,也是最广义的实体经济。R_2和金融业、房地产业构成了国民经济的整体,也就是由实体经济与虚拟经济构成的整体经济。基于这个分类框架,本文测算了党的"十八大"以来中国三个层次的实体经济的增长情况,认为"十八大"以来中国实体经济取得了巨大成就,已经发展成为一个世界性的实体经济大国且地位不断加强。但是,实体经济发展也存在严重的结构失衡问题,在R_0上表现为制造业结构性供需失衡,在R_1上表现为服务业和工业发展的失衡,在R_2上表现为实体经济和虚拟经济的结构失衡。基于对实体经济结构失衡的机制分析,本文提出了未来实体经济健康发展的政策思路:一是提高制造业供给体系质量,围绕提高制造业供给体系质量深化供给侧结构性改革,化解制造业供需结构失衡;二是形成工业和服务业良性互动、融合共生的关系,化解产业结构失衡,构建创新驱动、效率导向的现代产业体系;三是在"虚实分离"的常态中坚持"实体经济决定论",从体制机制上化解"虚实结构失衡",将风险防范的工作重点从关注金融领域风险转向关注长期系统性经济风险。
[Abstract]:The relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy has always been the subject of concern in academic circles. In recent years, the problem of "unreality and hypocrisy" existing in China's economy is a major economic structure problem that the government has been trying to solve. However, there is no consensus on what the real economy is and the scope of the real economy, whether at the theoretical level or at the policy level. In this paper, a hierarchical framework for the classification of real economy is put forward. It is considered that the first level of real economy is manufacturing industry, which is the core part of real economy and can be understood as the narrowest real economy. The second level of real economy includes R0, agriculture, construction and other industries other than manufacturing, which is the main part of the real economy and is the real economy in general or traditional sense; The third level of the real economy (Rflesh 2) includes R1, wholesale and retail, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and all other services other than finance, real estate, which is the overall content of the real economy. The real estate industry constitutes the whole of the national economy, that is, the whole economy composed of the real economy and the fictitious economy. Based on this classification framework, this paper estimates the growth of China's real economy at three levels since the 18th National Congress of the Party, and holds that China's real economy has made great achievements since the 18th National Congress. Has developed into a world real economy and the status of strengthening. However, there is also a serious structural imbalance in the development of the real economy, which is reflected in the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the manufacturing sector at R0, and the imbalance in the development of services and industry in RSP 1. The structure of real economy and fictitious economy is out of balance in RSP 2. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the structural imbalance of the real economy, this paper puts forward some policy ideas for the healthy development of the real economy in the future: first, to improve the quality of the manufacturing supply system and deepen the supply-side structural reform around the improvement of the quality of the supply system of the manufacturing industry. The second is to form a benign interaction between industry and service industry, to merge the symbiotic relationship, to resolve the imbalance of industrial structure, and to construct a modern industrial system driven by innovation and guided by efficiency. Thirdly, we should insist on "entity economy determinism" in the normal state of "separation of reality and vanity", resolve "structural imbalance of virtual reality" from institutional mechanism, and shift the focus of risk prevention from focusing on risks in financial field to long-term systemic economic risks.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘中国制造2025’的技术路径、产业选择与战略规划研究”(批准号15ZDB149)
【分类号】：F124

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