“中等收入陷阱”的国际间比较及对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-08-13 11:37

【摘要】：中国经济经过改革开放30年的发展有了翻天覆地的变化，2012年中国人均GDP超过了6000美元，已经赶上了中等收入国家的脚步。可是我国面临的过度重工业化、过度出口依赖、环境污染、收入分配不均等问题正在威胁中国的可持续发展。一系列的经济问题和社会问题正在凸显，要想保持经济的持续快速增长就需要进行一系列的改革。从世界经济的发展情况来看，只有少数的国家和地区成功跨越了“中等收入陷阱”。大部分国家在进入中等收入行列以后一直处在徘徊状态，迟迟未能进入高收入国家行列。从大国来看，只有日本和韩国成功跨越了“中等收入陷阱”，而拉美地区和东南亚的一些国家经济发展持续低迷，，即使有阶段性的快速增长也无法维持，陷入了“中等收入陷阱”。本文介绍了“中等收入陷阱”的成因和定义，总结了陷入“中等收入陷阱”国家的表现形式。重点进行了不同国家之间多方位的经济发展对比，拉丁美洲国家在经济发展过程中经历了快速发展时期和经济停滞时期，所以本文首先将拉美国家不同历史时期的经济发展状况做纵向的对比，总结快速发展的原因和经济停滞的教训。其次将日本、韩国等成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家同菲律宾、印尼、印度等未能跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家进行对比。分析战后不同国家的经济政策，总结两类国家之间的差异。通过以上两方面的国际间比较结合我国的经济发展特点，提出适合我国经济发展策略。本文运用相关性分析，研究基尼系数和社会分配不公对跨越“中等收入陷阱”的影响，同时运用回归分析的方法，研究影响我国人均GDP的因素，并预测达到人均10000美元的时期，寻求维持高收入的条件。通过以上的国际间对比和实证分析研究，为我国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:China's economy has changed dramatically after 30 years of reform and opening up, with a per capita GDP of more than $6000 in 2012, which has caught up with middle-income countries. However, the problems of excessive heavy industry, excessive export dependence, environmental pollution and unequal income distribution are threatening the sustainable development of China. A series of economic and social problems are emerging, and a series of reforms are needed to maintain sustained and rapid economic growth. Judging from the development of the world economy, only a few countries and regions have successfully crossed the middle-income trap. Most countries have been hovering after entering the middle-income category and have been slow to enter high-income countries. From the big countries, only Japan and South Korea have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap," while the economic development of some countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia has continued to be sluggish, even if there is a period of rapid growth can not be maintained. Caught in the middle income trap. This paper introduces the cause and definition of "middle income trap", and summarizes the manifestation of "middle income trap" country. The emphasis is on the comparison of economic development among different countries. Latin American countries have experienced periods of rapid economic development and periods of economic stagnation in the process of economic development. So this paper firstly compares the economic development of Latin American countries in different historical periods and summarizes the reasons of rapid development and the lessons of economic stagnation. Second, compare countries such as Japan and South Korea that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap" with those of the Philippines, Indonesia and India that have failed to do so. Analyze the economic policies of different countries after the war and summarize the differences between the two kinds of countries. According to the international comparison of the above two aspects and the characteristics of China's economic development, this paper puts forward some suitable economic development strategies for our country. This paper uses correlation analysis to study the influence of Gini coefficient and social inequality on crossing the "middle income trap". At the same time, by using regression analysis, the paper studies the factors that affect GDP per capita in China, and forecasts the period of 10000 US dollars per capita. Seek to maintain high income conditions. Through the above international comparison and empirical analysis, it provides the theoretical basis for our country to successfully cross the "middle income trap".
【学位授予单位】：沈阳师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7

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