关于山东省第三产业的实证分析
发布时间：2018-08-16 16:46
【摘要】：一般来说,第三产业增加值与GDP的比值,能够衡量一个国家的发展水平和发达程度。据国家统计局统计,2015年,我国国内生产总值为682635.1亿元。其中,第三产业增加值占GDP比重高达50.2%,标志着中国经济正式迈入“服务化”时代,意味着中国经济由工业主导向第三产业主导加快转变,成为新常态下中国经济增长的新动力和新一轮经济增长的“火车头”。山东省2015年总产值是63002.32亿元,三次产业增加值分别为4979.08、29485.90、28537.35亿元,占GDP的比例分别达到了7.9%、46.8%和45.3%,第二产业、第三产业都成了经济增长的主要的动力。作为重工业大省,经济发展依然面临许多问题,如市场主体的活力尚未充分释放;产业结构不够合理,消费增长动力不足。因此我们需要进行产业结构的调整,加快第三产业的发展来拉动经济的增长,使第三产业成为山东省经济增长的主动力。本文主要对山东省第三产业增加值进行时间序列建模以及分析第三产业对就业人数的影响。文章包括五章内容,第一章介绍了第三产业的研究背景及意义,对现有的关于第三产业的研究结果进行了综述;第二章对平稳时间序列模型及其建模步骤进行了介绍,并对矢量自回归模型(VAR模型)的一些概念及模型的估计方法、模型滞后期的选择问题、模型平稳性检验的原则作了简单说明;第三章选取了自1978年-2014年山东省第三产业增加值的数据,利用Eviews8.0软件进行数据分析,对数据预处理之后得到平稳性序列。利用AIC准则进行模型定阶,建立ARIMA模型。进而对模型做适应性检验和平稳性检验,表明我们的模型拟合效果不错。最后利用建立的模型对2015和2016年的第三产业增加值进行预测;第四章建立VAR模型分析第三产业对就业的影响,并依据分析结果给出相应的建议。第五章对论文进行综述,并依据分析结果对山东省第三产业发展提出意见和建议。
[Abstract]:Generally speaking, the ratio of added value of tertiary industry and GDP can measure the level of development and development of a country. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP in 2015 was 68.26351 trillion yuan. Among them, the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry to GDP is as high as 50.2%, which indicates that China's economy has formally entered the era of "service economy", which means that China's economy has been transformed from industrial leading to tertiary industry leading. To become the new power of China's economic growth and a new round of economic growth "locomotive" under the new normal. The total output value of Shandong Province in 2015 is 6.300232 trillion yuan, and the added value of three industries is 4979.080.29485.90,2.853735 trillion yuan respectively, which accounts for 7.9% 46.8% and 45.3% of GDP, respectively. The secondary industry and the tertiary industry have become the main driving force of economic growth. As a big province of heavy industry, economic development still faces many problems, such as the vitality of the main body of the market has not been fully released, the industrial structure is not reasonable, and the power of consumption growth is insufficient. Therefore, we need to adjust the industrial structure, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry to stimulate economic growth, so that the tertiary industry becomes the main driving force of economic growth in Shandong Province. This paper models the time series of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province and analyzes the influence of the tertiary industry on the number of employed people. The first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the tertiary industry, summarizes the existing research results on the tertiary industry, and introduces the stationary time series model and its modeling steps in the second chapter. Some concepts of the vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the estimation methods of the model, the problem of model lag selection, and the principle of model stationarity test are briefly explained. The third chapter selects the data of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2014, and uses Eviews8.0 software to analyze the data and get the stationary sequence after the data preprocessing. AIC criterion is used to determine the order of the model and the ARIMA model is established. Then the model is tested for adaptability and smoothness, which shows that our model fits well. At last, we use the established model to predict the added value of the tertiary industry in 2015 and 2016. Chapter four establishes the VAR model to analyze the influence of the tertiary industry on the employment, and gives the corresponding suggestions according to the analysis results. The fifth chapter summarizes the paper and puts forward some suggestions on the development of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province according to the analysis results.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2186580
[Abstract]:Generally speaking, the ratio of added value of tertiary industry and GDP can measure the level of development and development of a country. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP in 2015 was 68.26351 trillion yuan. Among them, the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry to GDP is as high as 50.2%, which indicates that China's economy has formally entered the era of "service economy", which means that China's economy has been transformed from industrial leading to tertiary industry leading. To become the new power of China's economic growth and a new round of economic growth "locomotive" under the new normal. The total output value of Shandong Province in 2015 is 6.300232 trillion yuan, and the added value of three industries is 4979.080.29485.90,2.853735 trillion yuan respectively, which accounts for 7.9% 46.8% and 45.3% of GDP, respectively. The secondary industry and the tertiary industry have become the main driving force of economic growth. As a big province of heavy industry, economic development still faces many problems, such as the vitality of the main body of the market has not been fully released, the industrial structure is not reasonable, and the power of consumption growth is insufficient. Therefore, we need to adjust the industrial structure, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry to stimulate economic growth, so that the tertiary industry becomes the main driving force of economic growth in Shandong Province. This paper models the time series of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province and analyzes the influence of the tertiary industry on the number of employed people. The first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the tertiary industry, summarizes the existing research results on the tertiary industry, and introduces the stationary time series model and its modeling steps in the second chapter. Some concepts of the vector autoregressive model (VAR model), the estimation methods of the model, the problem of model lag selection, and the principle of model stationarity test are briefly explained. The third chapter selects the data of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2014, and uses Eviews8.0 software to analyze the data and get the stationary sequence after the data preprocessing. AIC criterion is used to determine the order of the model and the ARIMA model is established. Then the model is tested for adaptability and smoothness, which shows that our model fits well. At last, we use the established model to predict the added value of the tertiary industry in 2015 and 2016. Chapter four establishes the VAR model to analyze the influence of the tertiary industry on the employment, and gives the corresponding suggestions according to the analysis results. The fifth chapter summarizes the paper and puts forward some suggestions on the development of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province according to the analysis results.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
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