浙江地区民营经济发展与电力需求相关性及预测研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 17:32

【摘要】：民营经济是我国深化改革开放的重要推动者,是促进我国经济稳步增长、改善民生和实现“中国梦”的关键力量。经过三十多年的发展历程,民营经济正逐步转变低效、粗放的运营方式,逐渐适用新时代经济增长的需要,在不断探索中成长。民营经济的繁荣在其用电量水平上可窥见一斑,而电网是民营经济的快速健康发展的重要保障,两者之间存在密切而微妙的联系。只有对电力需求与民营经济发展内在关系有了科学认识,才能为民营经济提供适宜的发展环境,并制定合理的电网规划满足其发展需要。因此,开展民营电力需求和民营经济发展的变化特征研究是十分有必要的。以便于明确电力需求与民营经济发展的内在关系,对民营经济电力需求进行有效预测,为电力规划及运行管理提供决策支持。本文首先科学、全面、系统地梳理了影响民营经济发展的因素,并建立了相适应的指标体系。采用敏感性分析,主成分分析等统计学方法,明确了各因素指标的影响程度,并筛选出关键指标。其次,利用H-P滤波,格兰杰因果检验,单位根检验等协整理论,建立了民营经济用电量与地区生产总值之间的趋势及波动的协整方程,明确了两者之间的内在联系。最后,重点建立了针对民营经济用电量变化特点的预测方法体系,采用了支持向量机预测,趋势外推预测,灰色预测、组合预测和马尔科夫预测等方法,得到了较好的预测结果,为电网规划及运行生产提供了决策支持。最后,本文将整个预测分析过程开发成了软件信息系统,进一步提高电力需求预测管理水平,增强相关理论技术的实用性。研究经济发展与电力需求的相关性,是为了揭示民营经济电力需求内在驱动因素及其变化规律；进行民营经济电力需求准确预测,是为了把握民营经济电力需求变化的长期趋势。两种方法从不同角度对民营经济电力需求的变化规律进行了探究,是对经济与电力需求关系研究体系的有益补充,为进行科学合理的电网规划提供重要参考依据,为制定更加符合民营经济发展特征的政策提供了技术支持。
[Abstract]:Private economy is an important promoter of deepening reform and opening up in China. It is the key force to promote the steady growth of Chinese economy, improve people's livelihood and realize "Chinese Dream". After more than 30 years of development, private economy is gradually changing inefficient, extensive operation mode, gradually adapt to the needs of economic growth in the new era, and continue to explore the growth. The prosperity of the private economy can be seen in the level of its electricity consumption, and the power grid is an important guarantee for the rapid and healthy development of the private economy, there is a close and subtle relationship between the two. Only if we have a scientific understanding of the inherent relationship between the demand for electricity and the development of private economy, can we provide a suitable development environment for the private economy, and formulate reasonable power network planning to meet its development needs. Therefore, it is necessary to study the changing characteristics of private electricity demand and private economy development. In order to make clear the internal relation between the power demand and the development of the private economy, we can forecast the electricity demand of the private economy effectively, and provide decision support for the electric power planning and operation management. In this paper, the scientific, comprehensive, systematic analysis of the factors affecting the development of private economy, and the establishment of a suitable index system. Sensitivity analysis, principal component analysis and other statistical methods were used to determine the influence degree of each factor index, and the key indexes were screened out. Secondly, by using H-P filter, Granger causality test, unit root test and other cointegration theory, the cointegration equation of the trend and fluctuation between electricity consumption and regional GDP in private economy is established, and the internal relationship between them is clarified. Finally, the paper establishes the forecasting method system according to the characteristics of electricity consumption in private economy, adopts support vector machine, trend extrapolation, grey forecast, combination forecast and Markov forecast, and so on, and puts forward some methods, such as support vector machine forecast, trend extrapolation forecast, grey forecast, combination forecast and Markov forecast etc. Good prediction results are obtained and decision support is provided for power network planning and operation production. Finally, the whole prediction and analysis process is developed into a software information system, which further improves the management level of power demand forecasting and enhances the practicability of related theory and technology. The purpose of studying the correlation between economic development and power demand is to reveal the internal driving factors and their changing laws of power demand in private economy, to make accurate prediction of electricity demand in private economy. Is in order to grasp the private economy electricity demand change long-term trend. The two methods probe into the changing law of power demand in the private economy from different angles, which is a useful supplement to the research system of the relationship between economy and power demand, and provides an important reference basis for the scientific and reasonable power network planning. For the formulation of more in line with the characteristics of private economic development policy to provide technical support.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.23;F426.61

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