中国城乡居民消费理性与消费增长路径选择的实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-19 20:39
【摘要】：20世纪90年代,中国经济步入转轨时期,市场机制逐步完善,市场化程度日渐加深,与之相适应的是经济的快速增长与居民收入、福利水平的不断提高。随着市场经济改革的不断深入,中国城乡居民面临的不确定性大量涌现,尤其是在教育、医疗、养老等制度方面的改革使得个体承担的经济风险日渐增加,居民消费谨慎程度逐渐增强,与之相伴随的是消费持续缓慢增长的经济现象。就这一现象产生的原因,习惯形成理论框架可以较好的解释。这是因为,习惯形成类似于一种谨慎行为,较强的习惯形成会带来较低的边际消费倾向,同时它能够减少不确定性对消费的影响,并会最终导致更低的当期消费和更高的储蓄(1)。习惯形成理论中效用不仅来源于当期消费,还要受到由以往消费累积的习惯存量的影响。具有习惯形成的消费者更加贴近现实,正是如此,习惯形成下过多的重复消费会令消费者感到厌烦,从而带来效用损失,降低满足程度。缓慢的消费增长并不意味着较少的满足,消费者获得的满足多少反映了其消费行为的理性程度。消费理性说明消费者已经适应形成已久的经济环境并得以满足,因而对短期政策冲击反应迟钝。然而,消费理性状态并非持久不变,理性消费者会依据周围条件的改善调整习惯形成,并令其消费逐渐达到具有更大满足的新理性。由此若消费是理性的,促进消费增长应立足于长期,从改善整体经济结构上寻求解决途径。若消费理性程度偏低,提高收入、降低流动性约束等短期刺激总需求的经济政策仍可以有效地帮助缓解习惯形成,促进消费增长。因而消费理性与否将为我们进一步制定有针对性的促进城乡居民消费增长进而带动经济持续增长的政策建议提供理论依据,同时也可以为我国经济增长做出贡献的总需求经济政策在近年来表现乏力提供一种解释(2)。基于习惯形成视角研究居民消费问题,国内目前尚处于初级阶段,而在这一视角下研究消费理性问题更属少数。本文在习惯形成理论框架下实证研究中国城乡居民1995-2014年消费理性问题,涵盖消费理性检验,影响消费理性形成的原因分析等,进一步提出适于我国城乡居民消费增长的路径选择。全文共分为四个部分,具体结构安排如下:第一部分包含第1,2,3章,属于论文的研究基础。其中第1章为绪论,主要介绍论文的选题背景、研究的目的与意义,研究思路,研究方法,论文创新点与进一步要研究的问题。第2章梳理国内外相关研究文献。国外文献综述包括消费理论、习惯形成理论与消费理性的一般研究,国内文献综述主要阐述解释中国持续“低消费、高储蓄”经济现象背后原因的主要观点。第3章简要介绍相关经济理论与模型方法。包括习惯形成的基本理论与西方几个具有代表性的消费习惯形成模型。第二、三部分共6章,为论文的主要研究内容。第二部分包含第4、5章,提出问题研究的基本思想。第4章界定习惯形成下的消费理性,包括设定理性消费目标,提出习惯形成下消费理性的含义,消费理性时应满足的基本条件以及消费理性检验的过程与方法。第5章构建习惯形成效用函数,该效用函数一阶条件为后续消费均衡分析的基础模型。第三部分包含6,7,8,9章,实证分析城乡居民这一时期消费理性问题并提出促进消费增长的路径选择。第6章为中国城乡居民消费一般分析,探讨城乡居民这一时期消费的收入效应与习惯形成效应,并获得各期实际有效消费值,为后续消费理性检验与分析奠定基础。第7章实证检验中国城乡居民消费理性。首先对城乡居民消费进行均衡分析,估计习惯形成参数,获得各期消费均衡值。而后依据第4章设定的理性条件检验这一时期城乡居民消费是否具有理性。第8章,依据上述检验结果、结合中国实际经济状况分析这一时期城乡居民消费理性与否的原因。第9章,提出适于中国城乡居民消费增长的路径选择。第四部分为结论,概括总结全文的主要结论。本文的主要结论有:(1)1995-2014年间农村居民习惯形成较强,习惯形成更持久,习惯依据偏好调整的灵活程度较差。(2)这一时期城镇居民消费具有理性,而农村居民消费表现为非理性。(3)习惯形成为消费理性与非理性的根源之一,习惯形成越强,实际有效消费水平越低,效用较大程度偏离最大化时的均衡水平。(4)缓解习惯形成是促进城乡居民消费增长的有效手段,而降低城镇居民习惯形成更应立足于长期,从改善总需求与总供给失衡的经济结构入手寻找解决途径。本文的创新点包括:(1)定义三个新概念。基于偏好与习惯形成的内在联系提出“偏好外在阶段一致性”假设和习惯形成下“消费理性”的含义,利用习惯形成参数定义“消费选择的瞬时灵活性”。(2)以两个参数衡量习惯形成效应,更加细致的考察习惯形成的特征,包括习惯形成的持久性与习惯依据偏好变动调整的灵活程度,为缓解习惯形成影响,促进消费增长提出更加可靠的政策建议。(3)形成两种观点,一是习惯形成降低了消费理性,它是影响消费理性与否的根源之一;二是习惯形成为个体不确定性认知的外部表现,反映个体辨识、应对不确定性影响的能力,而非面临不确定性数量多少的外部反应。
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, China's economy entered a transitional period, with the gradual improvement of market mechanism and the deepening of marketization, the rapid growth of economy, the income of residents and the continuous improvement of welfare level correspond to it. The reform of health care and old-age pension system makes the individual bear more and more economic risks, and the degree of caution of residents'consumption is gradually enhanced, accompanied by the economic phenomenon of sustained and slow growth of consumption. Prudential behavior, stronger habit formation will bring about lower marginal propensity to consume, and it can reduce the impact of uncertainty on consumption, and ultimately lead to lower current consumption and higher savings (1). The utility of habit formation theory comes not only from current consumption, but also from the accumulated habitual stock of past consumption. Custom-forming consumers are closer to reality, which is why excessive repeated consumption under habit-forming will make consumers feel bored, resulting in utility losses, reducing the degree of satisfaction.Slow consumption growth does not mean less satisfaction. Rationality shows that consumers have been adapted to and satisfied with the long-term economic environment, and therefore are slow to respond to short-term policy shocks. However, the rational state of consumption is not permanent. Rational consumers will adjust their habits according to the improvement of the surrounding conditions and make their consumption gradually reach a new rationality with greater satisfaction. It is rational that the promotion of consumption growth should be based on a long-term basis and seek solutions from the improvement of the overall economic structure. Further formulation of targeted policies and suggestions to promote consumption growth of urban and rural residents and further promote sustained economic growth provides a theoretical basis, but also for China's economic growth contributed to the total demand economy policy in recent years to provide an explanation for the performance of the weak (2). Based on the perspective of habitual formation of consumer issues, domestic. At present, it is still in the primary stage, and the study of consumption rationality is even less in this perspective. This paper makes an empirical study on the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2014 under the framework of habitual formation theory, including the test of consumption rationality, the analysis of the reasons affecting the formation of consumption rationality, and further puts forward the consumption increase suitable for urban and rural residents in China. The paper is divided into four parts, the specific structure is as follows: the first part contains chapters 1, 2, 3, which belong to the research basis of the paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, research ideas, research methods, innovation points and further research issues. Literature review includes consumption theory, habits formation theory and consumption rationality. Domestic literature review mainly expounds the main points of explaining the reasons behind China's sustained "low consumption, high savings" economic phenomenon. Chapter 3 briefly introduces relevant economic theories and models. The second part contains chapters 4 and 5, and puts forward the basic ideas of the study. Chapter 4 defines the consumption rationality under habit formation, including setting rational consumption goals and putting forward the consumption rationality under habit formation. Chapter 5 constructs the utility function of habit formation, the first-order condition of which is the basic model for subsequent consumption equilibrium analysis. Chapter 3 contains chapters 6, 7, 8 and 9, empirically analyzes the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in this period and puts forward the promotion. Chapter 6 is a general analysis of the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. It explores the income effect and habits formation effect of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period, and obtains the actual effective consumption value of each period, which lays the foundation for the follow-up rational consumption test and analysis. Chapter 7 empirically tests the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China. Then, according to the rational conditions set in Chapter 4, the rationality of the consumption of urban and rural residents in this period is tested. Chapter 8, based on the above test results, combined with China's actual economic situation, analyzes the reasons for the rationality of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The habits of rural residents formed stronger, the habits formed more lasting, and the flexibility of habits adjusted according to preferences was poor during 1995-2014. (2) The consumption of urban residents in this period was less flexible. (3) Habit formation is one of the root causes of consumption rationality and irrationality. The stronger the habit formation, the lower the actual effective consumption level, and the greater the utility deviates from the equilibrium level when maximizing. (4) Relaxation of habit formation is an effective means to promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents, while reducing the urban and rural residents. The innovations of this paper include: (1) defining three new concepts. Based on the inherent relationship between preference and habit formation, this paper puts forward the hypothesis of "preference external phase consistency" and the meaning of "consumption rationality" under habit formation. (2) Measure the effect of habit formation with two parameters, examine the characteristics of habit formation more carefully, including the persistence of habit formation and the flexibility of habit adjustment according to preference changes, and put forward more reliable measures to alleviate the influence of habit formation and promote consumption growth. Policy recommendations. (3) Forming two viewpoints, one is that habit formation reduces consumption rationality, which is one of the root causes affecting consumption rationality; the other is that habit formation is the external manifestation of individual uncertainty cognition, reflecting the ability of individual identification to cope with the impact of uncertainty, rather than the external response to the amount of uncertainty.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1
本文编号：2192771
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, China's economy entered a transitional period, with the gradual improvement of market mechanism and the deepening of marketization, the rapid growth of economy, the income of residents and the continuous improvement of welfare level correspond to it. The reform of health care and old-age pension system makes the individual bear more and more economic risks, and the degree of caution of residents'consumption is gradually enhanced, accompanied by the economic phenomenon of sustained and slow growth of consumption. Prudential behavior, stronger habit formation will bring about lower marginal propensity to consume, and it can reduce the impact of uncertainty on consumption, and ultimately lead to lower current consumption and higher savings (1). The utility of habit formation theory comes not only from current consumption, but also from the accumulated habitual stock of past consumption. Custom-forming consumers are closer to reality, which is why excessive repeated consumption under habit-forming will make consumers feel bored, resulting in utility losses, reducing the degree of satisfaction.Slow consumption growth does not mean less satisfaction. Rationality shows that consumers have been adapted to and satisfied with the long-term economic environment, and therefore are slow to respond to short-term policy shocks. However, the rational state of consumption is not permanent. Rational consumers will adjust their habits according to the improvement of the surrounding conditions and make their consumption gradually reach a new rationality with greater satisfaction. It is rational that the promotion of consumption growth should be based on a long-term basis and seek solutions from the improvement of the overall economic structure. Further formulation of targeted policies and suggestions to promote consumption growth of urban and rural residents and further promote sustained economic growth provides a theoretical basis, but also for China's economic growth contributed to the total demand economy policy in recent years to provide an explanation for the performance of the weak (2). Based on the perspective of habitual formation of consumer issues, domestic. At present, it is still in the primary stage, and the study of consumption rationality is even less in this perspective. This paper makes an empirical study on the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2014 under the framework of habitual formation theory, including the test of consumption rationality, the analysis of the reasons affecting the formation of consumption rationality, and further puts forward the consumption increase suitable for urban and rural residents in China. The paper is divided into four parts, the specific structure is as follows: the first part contains chapters 1, 2, 3, which belong to the research basis of the paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, research ideas, research methods, innovation points and further research issues. Literature review includes consumption theory, habits formation theory and consumption rationality. Domestic literature review mainly expounds the main points of explaining the reasons behind China's sustained "low consumption, high savings" economic phenomenon. Chapter 3 briefly introduces relevant economic theories and models. The second part contains chapters 4 and 5, and puts forward the basic ideas of the study. Chapter 4 defines the consumption rationality under habit formation, including setting rational consumption goals and putting forward the consumption rationality under habit formation. Chapter 5 constructs the utility function of habit formation, the first-order condition of which is the basic model for subsequent consumption equilibrium analysis. Chapter 3 contains chapters 6, 7, 8 and 9, empirically analyzes the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in this period and puts forward the promotion. Chapter 6 is a general analysis of the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. It explores the income effect and habits formation effect of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period, and obtains the actual effective consumption value of each period, which lays the foundation for the follow-up rational consumption test and analysis. Chapter 7 empirically tests the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China. Then, according to the rational conditions set in Chapter 4, the rationality of the consumption of urban and rural residents in this period is tested. Chapter 8, based on the above test results, combined with China's actual economic situation, analyzes the reasons for the rationality of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The habits of rural residents formed stronger, the habits formed more lasting, and the flexibility of habits adjusted according to preferences was poor during 1995-2014. (2) The consumption of urban residents in this period was less flexible. (3) Habit formation is one of the root causes of consumption rationality and irrationality. The stronger the habit formation, the lower the actual effective consumption level, and the greater the utility deviates from the equilibrium level when maximizing. (4) Relaxation of habit formation is an effective means to promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents, while reducing the urban and rural residents. The innovations of this paper include: (1) defining three new concepts. Based on the inherent relationship between preference and habit formation, this paper puts forward the hypothesis of "preference external phase consistency" and the meaning of "consumption rationality" under habit formation. (2) Measure the effect of habit formation with two parameters, examine the characteristics of habit formation more carefully, including the persistence of habit formation and the flexibility of habit adjustment according to preference changes, and put forward more reliable measures to alleviate the influence of habit formation and promote consumption growth. Policy recommendations. (3) Forming two viewpoints, one is that habit formation reduces consumption rationality, which is one of the root causes affecting consumption rationality; the other is that habit formation is the external manifestation of individual uncertainty cognition, reflecting the ability of individual identification to cope with the impact of uncertainty, rather than the external response to the amount of uncertainty.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126.1
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