我国通货膨胀与经济增长之间预警点的测算
发布时间：2018-08-20 11:13
【摘要】：经济增长率和通货膨胀率是衡量一个国家经济运行状况的基本指标，对经济增长与通货膨胀运行规律进行研究，可为我国实现经济健康快速可持续发展的宏观调控政策提供有力支持。通货膨胀与经济增长之间的影响机制是研究中需要首先解决的问题，本文从定量的角度研究我国通货膨胀与经济增长之间的影响机制，在对相关指标进行合理选择的基础上，依据时间序列数据建立VAR模型，通过Granger因果检验和脉冲响应函数，指出经济增长率对通货膨胀率的影响程度存在拐点，通货膨胀率对经济增长率的影响存在拐点。在此基础上，，本文应用二元选择模型进一步测定了通胀加剧预警点和经济减速运行预警点。最后，本文根据通货膨胀与经济增长之间的影响机制以及测定的两个预警点，为我国促进经济增长、保障物价稳定提出建设性建议。
[Abstract]:The economic growth rate and inflation rate are the basic indicators to measure the economic operation of a country. The law of economic growth and inflation is studied. It can provide strong support for macro-control policy of realizing healthy and fast sustainable development of economy in our country. The influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth is the first problem to be solved in the study. This paper studies the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth from a quantitative perspective, on the basis of reasonable selection of relevant indicators. Based on the time series data, the VAR model is established. Through Granger causality test and impulse response function, it is pointed out that there is an inflection point in the influence of economic growth rate on inflation rate, and the inflection point exists in the influence of inflation rate on economic growth rate. On this basis, this paper uses the binary selection model to further determine the inflation aggravation warning point and the economic deceleration operation warning point. Finally, according to the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth and the two early warning points measured, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for promoting economic growth and ensuring price stability in China.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F124
本文编号：2193376
[Abstract]:The economic growth rate and inflation rate are the basic indicators to measure the economic operation of a country. The law of economic growth and inflation is studied. It can provide strong support for macro-control policy of realizing healthy and fast sustainable development of economy in our country. The influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth is the first problem to be solved in the study. This paper studies the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth from a quantitative perspective, on the basis of reasonable selection of relevant indicators. Based on the time series data, the VAR model is established. Through Granger causality test and impulse response function, it is pointed out that there is an inflection point in the influence of economic growth rate on inflation rate, and the inflection point exists in the influence of inflation rate on economic growth rate. On this basis, this paper uses the binary selection model to further determine the inflation aggravation warning point and the economic deceleration operation warning point. Finally, according to the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth and the two early warning points measured, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for promoting economic growth and ensuring price stability in China.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F124
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