中国城镇居民消费水平及结构问题研究

发布时间：2018-08-23 13:43

【摘要】：消费、投资、出口是拉动一个国家经济增长的“三驾马车”,其中消费需求在国民经济快速健康发展过程中有着重要的作用。城镇居民的消费需求是居民消费需求的重要组成部分,正确全面地分析中国城镇居民的消费水平和消费结构,掌握中国城镇居民消费的变动趋势及特征,对于政府部门制定相关消费政策、刺激城镇居民扩大消费需求有着重要的理论意义和实践意义。长期以来中国的经济发展主要是依靠投资而不是消费,虽然投资能够促进经济增长增加产量,但也造成了生产部门资源过剩,在内需不足的背景下,这种投资推动型的经济发展方式已经不适应我国的现实情况,不能满足经济发展的需要。消费是经济发展的根本动力,我们应该注重消费对经济的推动力,发挥消费对经济的拉动作用。然而我国的各项制度改革使得城镇居民的支出不确定性增加,导致城镇居民为防范未来的不确定性减少消费,增加储蓄,这些制度改革引起的不确定性使我国城镇居民的消费发生了显著改变。本文运用定性与定量相结合的分析方法,对中国城镇居民消费水平和消费结构的不确定性因素及影响程度进行研究。本文首先介绍论文选题的背景及意义、国内外文献综述、文章采用的研究方法及文章的创新点;其次,分析相关的消费理论,为本文的研究奠定理论基础;再次,分析我国城镇居民的消费水平和结构现状,以及教育、医疗、住房等支出不确定性和就业风险等引起的收入不确定性对中国城镇居民消费的影响,依据城镇居民消费水平和消费结构状况来分析城镇居民的消费特征;在实证研究上,运用1978-2014年相关数据构建中国城镇居民消费水平和消费结构模型,定量分析城镇居民可支配收入、收入不确定性和城镇居民消费结构中教育、医疗、住房价格变动对城镇居民消费的影响。最后,根据定性和定量的分析结论,提出具有针对性的政策建议。本文采用调整离差率表示我国城镇居民面临的收入不确定性,这是本文的一个创新点。分别选取教育价格增长、居住价格增长和医疗保健价格增长代表城镇居民面临的教育支出不确定性、居住支出不确定性和医疗保健支出不确定性。本文从中国城镇居民消费水平和消费结构的现状分析和实证分析中得出结论:中国城镇居民的消费支出不仅受可支配收入影响,还受城镇居民未来收入和未来支出不确定性的影响。城镇居民的可支配收入是影响消费的主要因素,收入不确定性和支出不确定性都与城镇居民消费负相关,制约着城镇居民消费,且收入不确定性对消费支出的影响更大。在支出不确定性方面,教育价格、医疗保健价格、居住价格发生变化时,均会引起城镇居民消费支出反方向变化,在三者之中,教育消费支出的影响最大,其次是医疗,最后是居住,但是居住价格变化对城镇居民消费支出的影响也是值得关注的。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are the "troika" to stimulate a country's economic growth, among which consumer demand plays an important role in the rapid and healthy development of the national economy. The consumption demand of the urban residents is an important part of the consumption demand of the residents. The consumption level and structure of the Chinese urban residents are analyzed correctly and comprehensively, and the changing trend and characteristics of the consumption of the Chinese urban residents are grasped. It has important theoretical and practical significance for government departments to formulate relevant consumption policies and stimulate urban residents to expand their consumption demand. For a long time, China's economic development has mainly depended on investment rather than consumption. Although investment can promote economic growth and increase output, it has also caused a surplus of resources in the production sector. In the context of insufficient domestic demand, This investment-driven mode of economic development has not been able to adapt to the reality of our country, can not meet the needs of economic development. Consumption is the fundamental power of economic development, we should pay attention to the driving force of consumption to the economy, play the role of consumption to the economy. However, the system reform of our country has increased the uncertainty of urban residents' expenditure, and led them to reduce their consumption and increase their savings in order to guard against the uncertainty in the future. The uncertainty caused by these system reforms has significantly changed the consumption of urban residents in China. In this paper, the uncertain factors and influence degree of consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents in China are studied by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the topic, literature review at home and abroad, the research methods used in the article and the innovation of the article; secondly, analysis of the relevant consumption theory, to lay a theoretical foundation for this study; third, This paper analyzes the consumption level and structure of urban residents in China, and the influence of the uncertainty of expenditure, such as education, medical treatment, housing and employment risk, on the consumption of Chinese urban residents. Based on the consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents, this paper analyzes the consumption characteristics of urban residents, and constructs the consumption level and consumption structure model of Chinese urban residents by using the relevant data from 1978 to 2014. Quantitative analysis of urban residents' disposable income, income uncertainty and the influence of the change of education, medical treatment and housing price on the consumption of urban residents in the consumption structure of urban residents. Finally, according to the qualitative and quantitative analysis conclusions, put forward targeted policy recommendations. In this paper, the adjusted deviation rate is used to express the income uncertainty faced by urban residents in China, which is an innovation of this paper. The increase of education price, housing price and health care price respectively represent the uncertainty of education expenditure, housing expenditure and health care expenditure faced by urban residents. This paper draws a conclusion from the current situation analysis and empirical analysis of the consumption level and consumption structure of Chinese urban residents: the consumption expenditure of Chinese urban residents is not only affected by disposable income. Also affected by the uncertainty of future income and future expenditure of urban residents. The disposable income of urban residents is the main factor affecting consumption. The uncertainty of income and expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of urban residents, which restricts the consumption of urban residents, and the uncertainty of income has a greater impact on consumption expenditure. In terms of the uncertainty of expenditure, when the price of education, health care and housing changes, it will cause the reverse direction change of the consumption expenditure of urban residents. Of the three, the impact of the expenditure on education is the greatest, followed by the medical treatment. The last one is residence, but the influence of the change of housing price on the consumption expenditure of urban residents is also worthy of attention.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1

【参考文献】