新常态下中国经济周期国际协动性元分析

发布时间：2018-08-23 13:50

【摘要】：中国经济步入新常态后,经济增长速度及经济周期波动趋势呈现新特征,国际经济周期协动性影响着中国经济的增长。选取63篇论文,对中国与其他国家或地区的经济周期协动性进行元分析实证研究。结果表明,中国与越南和新西兰的协动性最强,中国与美国、新加坡、马来西亚和泰国的经济周期协动性较强,且呈逐渐增强的趋势,但与日本和菲律宾的协动性却较弱。贸易强度、产业内贸易强度、金融开放度、财政政策及货币政策会促进经济周期协动性的加强。所选中文样本对中国经济周期协动性研究及选定的国家稳健性检验均不存在发表偏好。因此,提出提升内动力、合理运用宏观调控工具、注重外资引进质量、构建经济波动的预警机制的对策建议。
[Abstract]:After the Chinese economy enters the new normal, the economic growth speed and the fluctuation trend of the economic cycle present the new characteristic, the international economic cycle cooperativeness affects the growth of the Chinese economy. In this paper, 63 papers are selected to make a meta-analysis empirical study on the business cycle coactivity between China and other countries or regions. The results show that China has the strongest synergism with Vietnam and New Zealand, and China is stronger with the United States, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, and tends to increase gradually, but it is weak with Japan and the Philippines. Trade intensity, intra-industry trade intensity, financial openness, fiscal policy and monetary policy will promote economic cycle coordination. The Chinese sample does not have a publishing preference for the Chinese business cycle coactivity study and the selected country robustness test. Therefore, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the internal motive force, make rational use of macro-control tools, pay attention to the quality of foreign capital introduction, and construct an early warning mechanism for economic fluctuation.
【作者单位】：西安财经学院公共管理学院;泽佩林大学国际经济理论与政策系;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目《中国新常态经济发展的动力结构优化研究》(15XJA790004) 国家留学基金资助项目《西部人才培养特别项目》(201608615031) 国家社会科学基金项目《城镇化对中国经济发展的结构性影响研究》(15XJL005)
【分类号】：F124.8

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