我国各省区碳减排潜力的计量与区域经济发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-08-28 09:02

【摘要】：能源作为人类生产生活赖以生存的根本,支撑着经济的繁荣与发展,是一个国家经济发展的主要动力。能源却是一把双刃剑,大量的能源消耗会给我们带来威胁社会生产生活的不稳定因素,例如温室效应、生态恶化、海平面上升等。学术界一直认为人类活动中消耗的能源等所排放的温室气体产生的温室效应是全球变暖问题最主要原因,其中,CO2的贡献最大。为此各国都在为构建低碳社会共同努力致力于科学有效的减排措施。作为世界最大的发展中国家,也是世界能源消费大国,我国正处于经济发展的重要阶段,逐步转变现有经济结构必须重视环境问题,承担相应的减排责任。在这种大的国际环境下,研究中国碳排放水平及其影响因素、各省市的减排潜力对于中国积极响应大环境下的减排方案,制定能源政策、碳减排政策均有重要的意义。文章从各省区C02排放入手,选择合理的测算CO2排放量的方法估算出各省区CO2排放总量,分析我国各省区二氧化碳排放情况。另外从经济效应、社会效应、能源效应和技术效应四个方面八个影响因素进行统计观察及实证分析,研究发现,代表经济和能源效应的指标变量对CO2排放水平的影响是正向的;社会效应对CO2排放水平的影响显著性水平不高;技术效应则有抑制作用。同时为了更好的掌握各省区在现有的经济发展水平和技术水平下二氧化碳减排空间大小,文章结合退耦理论,构建起我国各省区CO2减排潜力评价体系,评价各省市减排政策、措施的制定及实施的有效性。发现我国各省区CO2减排工作的推进对减少CO2排放量起到了积极作用,但减排政策的有效性还得不到保障。文章最后根据上述研究结论,分析各省区经济发展与CO2排放两者之间存在的不协调性,针对性的提出各区域经济发展政策建议。文章创新点在于研究CO2排放影响因素时从经济效应、社会效应、能源效应和技术效应四个方面进行研究;将技术创新能力定义为单位科学研究与实验发展(RD)经费的国内授权专利数量,引入交通水平影响因素,并选取面板数据模型进行实证分析;另外,结合退耦理论建立起各省区CO2减排潜力评价体系,评价各省区CO2减排政策措施的制定及实施的有效性和效率,探究二氧化碳减排压力。
[Abstract]:Energy, as the basis of human life and production, supports the prosperity and development of economy, and is the main motive force of a country's economic development. Energy is a double-edged sword, a large amount of energy consumption will bring us a threat to social production and life instability factors, such as Greenhouse Effect, ecological deterioration, sea level rise and so on. The academia has always thought that Greenhouse Effect caused by greenhouse gas emissions such as energy consumed in human activities is the most important cause of global warming, among which CO _ 2 contributes the most. To this end, countries are working together to build a low-carbon society to scientific and effective emission reduction measures. As the largest developing country in the world and a big energy consuming country in the world, our country is in an important stage of economic development. In such a large international environment, the study of China's carbon emission level and its influencing factors, the emission reduction potential of various provinces and cities are of great significance for China to respond positively to the emission reduction plan under the general environment, to formulate energy policies and to reduce carbon emissions. Starting with CO2 emission from provinces and regions, this paper selects a reasonable method to estimate the total amount of CO2 emissions from provinces and regions, and analyzes the carbon dioxide emissions of provinces and regions in China. In addition, from the four aspects of economic effect, social effect, energy effect and technical effect, eight factors are statistically observed and empirically analyzed. It is found that the index variables representing economic and energy effects have a positive impact on the CO2 emission level. The influence of social effect on CO2 emission level was not significant, while that of technology effect was inhibited. At the same time, in order to better grasp the space size of carbon dioxide emission reduction in the existing level of economic development and technology, combined with decoupling theory, this paper constructs the evaluation system of CO2 emission reduction potential of provinces and regions in China, and evaluates the emission reduction policies of various provinces and cities. Formulation and effectiveness of actions. It is found that the promotion of CO2 emission reduction in provinces and regions of China has played a positive role in reducing CO2 emissions, but the effectiveness of emission reduction policies has not been guaranteed. Finally, according to the above conclusions, the paper analyzes the disharmony between the economic development and CO2 emission of the provinces and autonomous regions, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the regional economic development. The innovation of this paper is to study the influence factors of CO2 emission from four aspects: economic effect, social effect, energy effect and technical effect. The technological innovation ability is defined as the number of domestic authorized patents of (RD) funds for scientific research and experimental development, and the factors affecting traffic level are introduced, and the panel data model is selected for empirical analysis. Combined with decoupling theory, the evaluation system of CO2 emission reduction potential of provinces and regions is established, and the effectiveness and efficiency of formulating and implementing policies and measures of CO2 emission reduction in provinces and regions are evaluated, and the pressure of carbon dioxide emission reduction is explored.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;X321

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