跨境资金流动对山东省经济影响的实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-04 07:14
【摘要】：随着跨境资金频繁流动和规模的显著增加，跨境资金流动对流入流出国经济发展的影响日益加深：一方面跨境资金流动有利于优化各国资源的配置，提高资金使用效率，推动了世界各国和地区经济的发展，特别是促进了经济欠发达、资金稀缺地区的发展；另一方面频繁、过量的资金流动又对一国的经济金融稳定带来巨大冲击，例如1997年亚洲金融危机。就我国而言，经常项目已实现完全可兑换，资本项目实现部分可兑换，人民币汇率改革稳步推进，利率市场化改革有序开展，都将进一步增强跨境资金流动的不确定性，其对实体经济的影响亦更加凸显。近几年来，受美国次贷危机、欧洲主权债务危机以及发达国家推出量化宽松货币政策等影响，导致国内外存在套利空间，，跨境资金投机性目的增强。就山东省而言，跨境资金双向流动频繁，短期波动性较大，增强和扩大了金融风险传递和影响，对金融体系的稳定和经济安全构成巨大威胁，亦必将对经济的平稳健康运行产生不良影响。 基于上述背景，本文从跨境资金和经济增长理论研究着手，分析了山东省对外贸易发展和跨境资金流动现状，在此基础上，建立了向量自回归模型和状态空间模型，研究了跨境资金流动对消费者价格水平、规模以上工业增加值的动态影响，根据实证研究结果，提出如下建议：一是加快推进利率市场化改革；二是继续推动汇率市场化改革；三是有序推进人民币资本项目可兑换；四是合理优化外商投资结构；五是切实防范异常跨境资金流动风险。
[Abstract]:With the frequent and significant increase of cross-border capital flows, the impact of cross-border financial flows on the economic development of the countries flowing into and out of the country is deepening. On the one hand, cross-border financial flows are conducive to optimizing the allocation of resources and increasing the efficiency of capital use. It has promoted the economic development of all countries and regions in the world, especially the development of underdeveloped and scarce regions. On the other hand, the frequent and excessive capital flows have had a great impact on the economic and financial stability of a country. For example, the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As far as China is concerned, the full convertibility of the current account, the partial convertibility of the capital account, the steady progress of the RMB exchange rate reform and the orderly development of the market-oriented interest rate reform will further enhance the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows. Its impact on the real economy is also more prominent. In recent years, influenced by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the quantitative easing monetary policy of developed countries, there is arbitrage space at home and abroad, and the speculative purpose of cross-border funds is enhanced. As far as Shandong Province is concerned, cross-border capital flows frequently in both directions and is highly volatile in the short run, which enhances and expands the transmission and impact of financial risks and poses a huge threat to the stability of the financial system and economic security. Will also have a negative impact on the smooth and healthy operation of the economy. Based on the above background, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and the current situation of cross-border capital flow in Shandong Province from the perspective of cross-border capital and economic growth theory. On this basis, a vector autoregressive model and a state space model are established. This paper studies the dynamic influence of cross-border capital flow on consumer price level and industrial added value above scale. According to the results of empirical research, it puts forward the following suggestions: first, accelerating the reform of interest rate marketization; second, continuing to promote the marketization reform of exchange rate. Third, promote the convertibility of RMB capital account in an orderly manner; fourth, rationally optimize the structure of foreign investment; and fifth, earnestly guard against the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F832.6
本文编号：2221374
[Abstract]:With the frequent and significant increase of cross-border capital flows, the impact of cross-border financial flows on the economic development of the countries flowing into and out of the country is deepening. On the one hand, cross-border financial flows are conducive to optimizing the allocation of resources and increasing the efficiency of capital use. It has promoted the economic development of all countries and regions in the world, especially the development of underdeveloped and scarce regions. On the other hand, the frequent and excessive capital flows have had a great impact on the economic and financial stability of a country. For example, the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As far as China is concerned, the full convertibility of the current account, the partial convertibility of the capital account, the steady progress of the RMB exchange rate reform and the orderly development of the market-oriented interest rate reform will further enhance the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows. Its impact on the real economy is also more prominent. In recent years, influenced by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the quantitative easing monetary policy of developed countries, there is arbitrage space at home and abroad, and the speculative purpose of cross-border funds is enhanced. As far as Shandong Province is concerned, cross-border capital flows frequently in both directions and is highly volatile in the short run, which enhances and expands the transmission and impact of financial risks and poses a huge threat to the stability of the financial system and economic security. Will also have a negative impact on the smooth and healthy operation of the economy. Based on the above background, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and the current situation of cross-border capital flow in Shandong Province from the perspective of cross-border capital and economic growth theory. On this basis, a vector autoregressive model and a state space model are established. This paper studies the dynamic influence of cross-border capital flow on consumer price level and industrial added value above scale. According to the results of empirical research, it puts forward the following suggestions: first, accelerating the reform of interest rate marketization; second, continuing to promote the marketization reform of exchange rate. Third, promote the convertibility of RMB capital account in an orderly manner; fourth, rationally optimize the structure of foreign investment; and fifth, earnestly guard against the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F832.6
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