人力资本投资对产业结构升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-04 06:33

【摘要】：自2014年中国GDP增速下滑至7.4%,低于年初制定的7.5%的目标,转型中的中国经济增速下行,意味着我国经济发展进入新常态,新常态呈现出以下特征:经济增速由高速转为中高速增长;从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动;经济结构不断优化升级。我国经济的发展也处在三期叠加的转型阵痛期:一是增长速度换挡期,速度下降;二是结构调整阵痛期,优化经济结构;三是前期刺激政策消化期。改革开放三十年来的人口与资源红利的优势不再,经济发展、产业升级需要新的推动力,因此,推进供给侧结构性改革势在必行。供给侧结构性改革的核心在于调整经济结构,推动产业升级,而人力资本投资作为产业结构升级的重要推力,同时也是供给侧结构性改革的重要内容。人力资本投资通过改变需求结构与供给结构以及技术创新等多方面影响产业结构升级,因此,在国家供给侧结构性改革的宏观背景下研究人力资本投资对产业结构升级的影响具有重要意义。本文在国家供给侧结构性改革的宏观背景下,依据新常态经济发展的新特点,首先分析了人力资本投资对产业结构升级的作用机理。其次,运用统计数据与面板数据模型对全国各省份自治区的数据进行实证检验,验证理论分析在现实经济运行的准确性。最后,在人力资本投资对产业结构升级的理论实证与经验实证分析基础之上,通过统计数据分析近年来产业结构升级过程中人力资本投资存在的问题并进行成因分析,据此提出推进人力资本投资对产业结构升级的对策建议。论文具体包含以下内容:第一、在对国内外关于人力资本投资与产业结构升级相关文献进行搜集和梳理的过程中,经整理发现,国外对于人力资本与产业结构升级的研究多集中在单独领域,国内对于人力资本与产业结构升级的研究较多,可分为理论实证与经验实证两大部分,其中理论实证侧重于人力资本与产业结构升级的作用机理分析,检验实证侧重运用计量经济学的方法对统计数据进行分析,得出相关结论,主要的方法为回归分析法。第二、人力资本投资通过改变需求结构、供给结构以及技术创新来影响产业结构升级。人力资本投资提高了劳动者的收入水平,进而提升其消费结构,由于供给是取决于需求的,社会需求结构的变化直接影响产业结构升级;人力资本投资通过改变要素供给结构作用于产业结构升级,由于人力资本自身的能动的创造性以及人力资本投资自身的外部性,可以提高其他要素的生产效率,进而提高全要素生产率,促进产业结构升级;技术创新是产业结构升级的重要推力,而人力资本作为技术进步的主体,只有不断提升人力资本存量水平,优化人力资本结构,才能推动产业结构向着更高层次发展。第三、选用面板数据模型,分别对东部中部西部地区相应的人力资本指标与产业升级指标进行回归分析,得出结论:东中西部地区人力资本投资对产业结构升级的影响均为正向的;西部地区的人力资本投资对产业结构升级的影响要大于东部地区;缩小城乡居民可支配收入差距对推进产业结构升级影响显著。第四、通过对统计数据进行分析,探究产业结构升级过程中人力资本投资存在的问题,即人力资本投资相对量不足与投资结构不合理的问题,并在此基础上进行成因分析,最后得出加大人力资本投资力度,优化人力资本投资结构,鼓励技术创新的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China's GDP growth has fallen to 7.4% since 2014, which is lower than the 7.5% target set at the beginning of this year. The downward trend of China's economic growth in transition means that China's economic development has entered a new normal. The new normal shows the following characteristics: the economic growth rate has changed from high-speed to medium-high-speed; from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven; and the economic structure has been constantly optimized. China's economic development is also in three stages of superimposed transition painful period: first, the growth rate shift period, the rate of decline; second, structural adjustment painful period, optimize the economic structure; third, the early period of stimulation policy digestion. The core of the supply-side structural reform is to adjust the economic structure and promote industrial upgrading. As an important thrust of industrial upgrading, human capital investment is also an important part of the supply-side structural reform. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of human capital investment on the upgrading of industrial structure under the macroscopic background of the structural reform on the supply side of the country. Secondly, this paper uses statistical data and panel data model to test the data of provinces and autonomous regions in China to verify the accuracy of theoretical analysis in the actual economic operation. Finally, the theoretical and empirical analysis basis of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading is given. On this basis, through statistical analysis of recent industrial structure upgrade in the process of human capital investment problems and causes of analysis, based on this proposed to promote human capital investment in industrial structure upgrade countermeasures and suggestions. In the process of collecting and sorting out the relevant documents, it is found that the research on human capital and industrial structure upgrading abroad is mostly concentrated in a separate field, while the domestic research on human capital and industrial structure upgrading is more, which can be divided into two parts: theoretical demonstration and empirical demonstration. Secondly, human capital investment affects the upgrading of industrial structure by changing the demand structure, supply structure and technological innovation. Human capital investment improves labor. As supply depends on demand, the change of social demand structure directly affects the upgrading of industrial structure; human capital investment acts on the upgrading of industrial structure by changing the supply structure of factors, because of the dynamic creativity of human capital itself and the outside of human capital investment itself. As the main body of technological progress, human capital, as the main body of technological progress, can promote the industrial structure to a higher level only by continuously upgrading the stock level of human capital and optimizing the structure of human capital. Thirdly, using panel data model, this paper makes a regression analysis of the corresponding human capital index and industrial upgrading index in the eastern, central and Western regions, and draws a conclusion that the impact of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading in the eastern, central and western regions is positive; the impact of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading in the western region is positive. Fourth, through the analysis of statistical data, this paper explores the problems of human capital investment in the process of industrial structure upgrading, that is, the relative amount of human capital investment is insufficient and the investment structure is unreasonable, and on this basis. On the basis of the analysis of the causes, we finally come to the policy recommendations of increasing human capital investment, optimizing human capital investment structure and encouraging technological innovation.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21

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