出口退税对我国产业结构影响的实证研究——以传统劳动密集型产业为例

发布时间：2018-09-06 07:41

【摘要】：经济新常态下,为有效应对经济增速放缓并实现产业结构升级,作为我国宏观调控手段之一的出口退税政策发挥着重要的作用。本文基于2006~2015年的三类传统劳动密集型产业月度出口数据,采用干预模型进行研究发现,出口退税率与服装及衣着附件的出口额占比正向相关;出口退税率的政策边际效果逐渐减弱;出口退税率对提高纺织纺线及织物和鞋类的出口占比有正向作用但不显著。通过调高传统劳动密集型产业的出口退税率进而促进其产业增长的政策目的难以实现,反而客观上延缓了我国对产业结构的宏观调整步伐。建议整体降低传统劳动密集型产业的出口退税率、细化产业出口退税率、积极寻求其他解决劳动力转移的对策,以相对较低的出口退税率"倒逼"生产资源的合理流动。
[Abstract]:In the new normal state of economy, export tax rebate policy, as one of the means of macro-control in China, plays an important role in dealing with the slowdown of economic growth and realizing the upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the monthly export data of three kinds of traditional labor-intensive industries from 2006 to 2015, this paper uses the intervention model to study and finds that the export tax rebate rate is positively correlated with the proportion of the export value of clothing and clothing accessories. The marginal effect of the export tax rebate rate is gradually weakened, and the export tax rebate rate has a positive effect on the increase of textile spinning and textile and footwear exports, but it is not significant. By increasing the export tax rebate rate of the traditional labor-intensive industries, it is difficult to achieve the policy goal of promoting the industrial growth, but the macro-adjustment of industrial structure in China has been slowed down objectively. It is suggested that the export tax rebate rate of traditional labor-intensive industries should be reduced as a whole, the industrial export tax rebate rate should be refined, and other countermeasures should be actively sought to solve the problem of labor transfer so as to push the reasonable flow of production resources with relatively low export tax rebate rate.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目“人口流动下的财政体制优化研究”(14BJY156)
【分类号】：F121.3;F752.62;F812.42

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