低碳经济背景下浙江省各市经济增长与碳排放关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 21:54

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖及国内大力发展生态文明建设的大背景下,浙江省各市积极配合党和国家发展低碳经济的政策,浙江省已经把低碳经济的发展模式纳入其未来的发展建设体系。浙江省各市已经在摸索适合自己的低碳经济之路。在此背景下,深入分析浙江省各市碳排放与经济增长的现状以及影响二氧化碳的排放的因素,进而为当地政府制定相关产业、环保等政策提供理论支持。本文按照“文献梳理—理论分析—现状分析—计量实证—结果分析—政策建议”的思路来展开研究。第一,对研究经济增长与二氧化碳的排放量以及影响二氧化碳排放的重要因素的文献做了较为系统的梳理,在总结了现有文献在数据范围及控制变量的选取方面的不足。第二,对二氧化碳排放与经济增长的有关理论作了较为深入全面的研究。第三,本文对浙江省各市的经济增长和二氧化碳排放现状进行了分析:从经济增长、产业结构两方面分析了浙江省整体以及11市的增长的状况;从浙江省各市碳排放强度、Tapio脱钩指数两方面分析了浙江省低碳经济发展状况,由于当前尚未有权威部门或组织对二氧化碳的排放量数据进行测算,故本文依据相关学者介绍的方法对各市的二氧化碳的排放量进行了测算。第四,本文在实证部分试图解决以下三问题:(1)浙江省各市二氧化碳排放量与经济增长是否呈现出EKC倒U型曲线,如若不是,是什么样的形状?(2)国际贸易、外商直接投、产业结构、城市化率对影响二氧化碳的排放有无影响?(3)探究各控制变量对因变量影响是否存在长期效应?本文在第五章对上述三个问题做出了回答:(1)杭州市、嘉兴市、金华市、衢州市、台州市为倒“N”型曲线;温州市、绍兴市、舟山市为“N”型曲线;宁波市、湖州市、丽水市为倒“U”型曲线。实证结果表明:在经济发展的初期,CO_2排放量受其影响之深,而当经济发展达到一定的程度之后,CO_2排放量受其影响程度会有所减弱,虽然影响的作用会出现方向的变化,但是这种变化不是主导性的。这就告诉我们在经济高速发展的今天,虽然GDP的微小变化可能不会对CO_2排放量有很大的改变,但是可能会让其从抑制转向促进或者相反。因此,我们在大力发展经济的同时,必须意识到二者之间的这种关系。如果可以很好的利用这一转机,就有可能实现经济发展与环境保护的双赢。(2)通过浙江省11个市FDI、TRADE、SECT、CITY四个控制变量对CO_2排放量影响的分析发现,四个变量对CO_2排放量的影响都是有正有负的,这就表明不同的地区这些因素的影响都是不同的,不光是数值上的不同,作用方向都不尽相同。这表明:环境变化的多样性以及不确定性,我们大力发展经济的同时必须得因地制宜地制定相应的对策才能找到平衡。(3)引入各变量的滞后项进行分析,以便更加全面考虑各变量之间的影响程度是否存在长期效应;实证结果表明,各变量的一阶滞后项效应明显,故长期效应存在。最后,本文结合本文的实证结论,从大力发展第三产业以提升产业结构、控制城市化进程、改善国际贸易的商品结构与适当控制外商直接投资等四个角度提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global warming and vigorous development of ecological civilization in China, Zhejiang Province has actively cooperated with the Party and the state in developing low-carbon economy. Zhejiang Province has incorporated the development model of low-carbon economy into its future development and construction system. Under the circumstances, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions and economic growth in Zhejiang Province and the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions, and then provides theoretical support for the local government to formulate policies on related industries and environmental protection. Firstly, the literature on economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and the important factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions are systematically reviewed, and the shortcomings of existing literature in data range and control variables selection are summarized. Secondly, the relevant theories of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth are compared. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the current situation of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Zhejiang Province: the overall growth of Zhejiang Province and the growth of 11 cities in terms of economic growth and industrial structure; the development of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang Province is analyzed in terms of carbon emission intensity and Tapio decoupling index. As there is no authoritative department or organization to measure the carbon dioxide emissions, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of each city according to the method introduced by relevant scholars. Fourthly, this paper tries to solve the following three problems in the empirical part: (1) carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. Is the long-term EKC inverted U-shaped curve, if not, what shape is it? (2) Does international trade, foreign direct investment, industrial structure, urbanization rate have any impact on carbon dioxide emissions? (3) Does each control variable have a long-term effect on the dependent variable? The results show that in the early stage of economic development, CO_2 emissions are deeply affected by it, and when the economic development reaches a certain degree, CO_2 emissions are emitted. This tells us that in today's high-speed economic development, although small changes in GDP may not have a significant change in CO 2 emissions, it may change from inhibition to promotion or vice versa. Therefore, we must be aware of the relationship between the two. If we can make good use of this turning point, it is possible to achieve a win-win situation between economic development and environmental protection. The influence of O_2 emission is positive or negative, which indicates that the influence of these factors is different in different areas, not only in numerical value, but also in different directions. (3) introducing the lag term of each variable to analyze, so as to consider whether there is a long-term effect between the various variables more comprehensively; the empirical results show that the first-order lag effect of each variable is obvious, so the long-term effect exists. Finally, this paper combines the empirical conclusions of this paper, from vigorously developing the tertiary industry to enhance production. Policy proposals are put forward from four perspectives: industrial structure, control of urbanization, improvement of commodity structure of international trade and proper control of foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F127

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