中国人口年龄结构演变与居民消费问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 23:31

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国经济连续30多年保持平均10%的高速增长势头，特别是世界性的金融危机以来，拉动世界经济走出低谷的强劲动力逐渐向以中国作为代表的新兴市场国家靠拢。然而，在经济快速发展的同时，我国的居民消费率却呈现出长期下降的趋势，并已经成为阻碍我国经济增长方式由外需拉动到内需拉动转型的顽疾。在目前中国经济面临一系列结构性失衡问题的背景下，寻求国内消费增长缓慢的原因以及破解之道成为极具现实意义的研究课题。所以，本文以中国人口年龄结构演变为切入点，从理论和实证两个方面分析研究了人口年龄结构演变与居民消费的关系，以期对我国未来政策的制定提供一定的基础和依据。首先，文章对国内外人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的文献进行了梳理，据以作为后续研究的理论和技术支持。接下来阐述了人口年龄结构影响居民消费率的理论基础和作用途径，并结合我国建国以来的实际，总结、概括了我国60多年来人口年龄结构的历史演变过程、特点及发展趋势，，同时，运用纵向历史比较法和横向国际比较法，对比分析了当前我国居民消费走低的现状及变化。其次，文章在对相关理论和指标进行比较的基础上，建立了较为合理的动态面板计量模型，并运用GMM估计方法从全国、东中西地区以及城乡三个方面对中国1998~2011年31个省、市、自治区的人口年龄结构演变与居民消费的演变关系进行了实证研究。对全国的分析表明，少年儿童抚养比的下降显著减少了居民消费率，而老年人口抚养比的上升也使居民消费率显著降低。对东、中、西部地区的分析发现，少年儿童抚养比对东、西部地区均有显著正的影响，比较而言，对西部的影响程度最大，东部次之；老年人口抚养比对东、西部地区均有显著负的影响，比较而言，对东部的影响程度最大，西部次之；两个抚养比对中部地区的影响均不显著。继而分城镇、农村的估计结果和全国基本一致，即少年儿童抚养比对城乡居民消费率均有显著正的影响，但对农村居民的影响程度大于城镇；老年人口抚养比对城乡居民消费率均有显著负的影响，比较而言，对城镇居民消费率的影响程度略大于农村。最后，在理论分析和实证结果的基础上，提出如下对策建议：转变居民消费观念，矫正传统的落后思维模式，引导居民合理消费；鼓励经济较发达且老龄化程度较高的地区率先放宽计划生育政策；完善养老保险、医疗保险和贫困救助等社会保障制度，做到老有所养；积极发展居民消费信贷，丰富信贷品种，满足不同年龄阶段人群的消费需求。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained an average rapid growth momentum of 10% for more than 30 consecutive years, especially since the world financial crisis. The strong drive to pull the world economy out of the doldrums is drawing closer to emerging markets represented by China. However, with the rapid development of economy, the resident consumption rate of our country has been declining for a long time, and has become a persistent disease that hinders the transformation from external demand to domestic demand. Under the background that China's economy is facing a series of structural imbalance problems, it is of great practical significance to seek the reasons for the slow growth of domestic consumption and to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper takes the evolution of Chinese population age structure as the breakthrough point, analyzes and studies the relationship between the evolution of population age structure and residents' consumption from both theoretical and empirical aspects, in order to provide a certain basis and basis for the formulation of future policies in China. Firstly, the paper combs the literature on the relationship between the age structure of the population and the consumption of the residents at home and abroad, as the theoretical and technical support for the follow-up study. Then, the paper expounds the theoretical basis and action ways of the age structure of the population affecting the consumption rate of residents, and summarizes the historical evolution process, characteristics and development trend of the age structure of the population in China in the past 60 years in combination with the reality since the founding of the people's Republic of China. At the same time, by using the vertical historical comparison method and the horizontal international comparison method, this paper compares and analyzes the current situation and changes of the residents' consumption decline in our country. Secondly, on the basis of comparison of relevant theories and indicators, this paper establishes a more reasonable dynamic panel measurement model, and applies GMM estimation method to 31 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2011 from three aspects: national, eastern, western, and urban and rural areas. The relationship between the evolution of the population age structure and the consumption of residents in the autonomous region is studied empirically. The analysis of the whole country shows that the decrease of the dependency ratio of children and adolescents has significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents, and the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly population has also significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents. An analysis of the eastern, middle and western regions found that the ratio of children to children in the east had a significant positive impact on the western region. Comparatively speaking, the degree of influence on the western region was the greatest, followed by the eastern part; the elderly population was brought up to the east. There were significant negative effects in the western region, the degree of influence was the biggest in the east, the second was in the west, and the influence of the two dependency ratios was not significant in the central region. Then the estimated results of rural areas are basically consistent with that of the whole country, that is, the ratio of raising children to children has a significant positive effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, but the degree of influence on rural residents is greater than that on urban and rural residents. The dependency ratio of the elderly population has a significant negative effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, and the influence on the consumption rate of urban residents is slightly greater than that of rural residents. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, the following suggestions are put forward: to change the residents' consumption concept, correct the traditional backward thinking mode, and guide the residents to consume reasonably; Encouraging regions with more developed economies and a higher degree of ageing to take the lead in relaxing family planning policies; improving social security systems such as old-age insurance, medical insurance and poverty relief; and actively developing consumer credit for the elderly. Enrich the variety of credit to meet the consumer demand of people of different ages.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24;F126

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