促进经济中高速增长的路径与措施
发布时间：2018-10-09 19:23
【摘要】：改革开放后的经济高速增长是增长潜力被压缩到一个独特的制度转轨进程中的集中释放。增长要素的变化必然带来潜在增长率的明显回落,回落幅度与全要素生产率的变动密切相关。"十三五"时期,释放中西部人口库兹涅茨效应仍有较大潜力,储蓄率的下调幅度有限,改革体现在全要素生产率增长上的实际效果具有较大不确定性,经济潜在增长率在5.7%—7.5%之间。按照保守的增长情景估算,到2024年我国人均收入将达到1.3万美元,跨入高收入国家行业;到2050年将达到3.7万美元,进入中等发达国家行列。实现经济中高速增长的路径是通过体制改革和科技创新,促进提高劳动参与率、释放人口库兹涅茨效应、提升人力资本质量、改善投资效益、推动科技创新、降低制度性交易成本,全面提升全要素生产率,推动经济增长趋近潜在增长率上限。要审慎把握金融市场对外开放的次序和节奏,防止内部失衡与外部冲击叠加共振引发危机。要持续增强基础能力,为追赶型增长后期全要素生产率的增长创造条件,避免落入增长陷阱。
[Abstract]:The rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up is the concentrated release of the growth potential being compressed into a unique institutional transition process. "the change in growth factors is bound to lead to a significant pullback in potential growth rates, which are closely related to changes in total factor productivity." During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the Kuznets effect of releasing the population of the central and western regions still has great potential, the scope of the reduction of the savings rate is limited, and the actual effect of the reform reflected in the total factor productivity growth is uncertain. The potential growth rate of the economy is between 5.7% and 7.5%. According to conservative growth scenarios, China's per capita income will reach $13000 by 2024, entering high-income countries; by 2050, it will reach $37000, making it a middle-developed country. The way to achieve rapid economic growth is to promote the labor force participation rate, release the population Kuznets effect, improve the quality of human capital, improve investment efficiency, and promote scientific and technological innovation through system reform and scientific and technological innovation. Reduce institutional transaction costs, improve total factor productivity, promote economic growth to the maximum potential growth rate. It is necessary to carefully grasp the order and rhythm of the opening up of financial markets to prevent internal imbalances and external shocks from superimposing and resonating to trigger crises. It is necessary to continuously strengthen the basic ability, to create the conditions for the growth of total factor productivity in the late stage of catch-up growth, and to avoid falling into the growth trap.
【分类号】：F124
，
本文编号：2260495
[Abstract]:The rapid economic growth after the reform and opening up is the concentrated release of the growth potential being compressed into a unique institutional transition process. "the change in growth factors is bound to lead to a significant pullback in potential growth rates, which are closely related to changes in total factor productivity." During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the Kuznets effect of releasing the population of the central and western regions still has great potential, the scope of the reduction of the savings rate is limited, and the actual effect of the reform reflected in the total factor productivity growth is uncertain. The potential growth rate of the economy is between 5.7% and 7.5%. According to conservative growth scenarios, China's per capita income will reach $13000 by 2024, entering high-income countries; by 2050, it will reach $37000, making it a middle-developed country. The way to achieve rapid economic growth is to promote the labor force participation rate, release the population Kuznets effect, improve the quality of human capital, improve investment efficiency, and promote scientific and technological innovation through system reform and scientific and technological innovation. Reduce institutional transaction costs, improve total factor productivity, promote economic growth to the maximum potential growth rate. It is necessary to carefully grasp the order and rhythm of the opening up of financial markets to prevent internal imbalances and external shocks from superimposing and resonating to trigger crises. It is necessary to continuously strengthen the basic ability, to create the conditions for the growth of total factor productivity in the late stage of catch-up growth, and to avoid falling into the growth trap.
【分类号】：F124
，
本文编号：2260495
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