江苏省碳排放与经济增长之间的关系研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 12:46
【摘要】：随着全球气候的持续变暖，环境问题越来越受到人们的关注。以二氧化碳为主的温室气体的大量排放成为影响全球变暖的重要因素之一。目前，温室气体排放控制的重点主要在减少能源消费引起的碳排放上面。减少碳排放、发展低碳经济已经成为了世界各国的共识。作为世界上碳排放量最多的国家，我国政府在2010年宣布，到2020年实现单位GDP的碳排放强度比2005年下降40%—50%。江苏省既是我国经济发展最快的省份之一，又是全国碳排放的大省，碳减排责任重大。如何在保证经济增长的前提下降低碳排放是江苏省亟需解决的问题。 本文通过江苏省历年能源平衡表，并结合IPCC评估报告提供的碳排放核算方法首先对江苏省1995-2011年碳排放总量和分产业部门碳排放量进行测算，，然后分别从碳排放总体，产业结构，能源结构，与其他国家的横向对比四个方面对江苏省碳排放现状进行分析。结果表明江苏省碳排放总量逐年上升，其中第二产业碳排放占绝对比重；能源消费仍以煤炭为主；碳排放强度呈现下降趋势，且优于全国。 本文通过LMDI因素分解法并从经济发展效应、产业结构效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、碳强度效应和人口规模效应6个方面对江苏省碳排放的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明经济增长是江苏省碳排放的主要驱动因素，而能源强度的下降则是抑制碳排放的最主要因素。 本文通过运用单位根检验、协整检验，格兰杰因果关系检验等检验方法并结合EKC曲线对江苏省碳排放与经济增长的长期均衡关系进行研究。结果表明碳排放与经济增长之间存在着倒N型曲线关系，并以江苏省1995-2011年GDP的年均12.3%的增长速度为前提，进一步可以判定江苏省目前正处于碳排放总量上升，增速下降的初期阶段。 本文构建了基于Taoio脱钩指标的脱钩扩展模型，研究了1995-2011年的江苏省碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩弹性，结果表明江苏省碳排放与经济增长之间在1995-1999年间总体呈现强脱钩关系，而在2000-2011年呈现弱脱钩关系，影响碳排放与经济增长脱钩弹性的最重要的因素分别是经济增长脱钩弹性和能源强度脱钩弹性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, people pay more and more attention to the environmental problems. A large amount of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming. At present, the focus of greenhouse gas emission control is to reduce carbon emissions from energy consumption. Reducing carbon emissions, developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. As the largest carbon emitter in the world, our government announced in 2010 that by 2020, the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 50 lower than that of 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emission in China. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the energy balance table of Jiangsu Province over the years and the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, this paper first measures the total carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 and the carbon emissions from industrial sectors, then separately from the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure. Energy structure, compared with other countries in four aspects of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is increasing year by year, in which the carbon emissions of the secondary industry account for the absolute proportion; the energy consumption is still dominated by coal; the intensity of carbon emissions shows a downward trend and is superior to that of the whole country. In this paper, the factors influencing carbon emission in Jiangsu Province are analyzed by LMDI factor decomposition method from six aspects: economic development effect, industrial structure effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, carbon intensity effect and population scale effect. The results show that economic growth is the main driving factor of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, and the decrease of energy intensity is the most important factor to restrain carbon emissions. In this paper, the long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is studied by using unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and EKC curve. The results show that the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is inversely N-shaped. Based on the average annual growth rate of GDP in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011, it can be further determined that Jiangsu Province is in the process of increasing total carbon emissions. The early stages of a slowdown in growth. In this paper, an extended decoupling model based on Taoio decoupling index is constructed, and the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied. The results show that there is a strong decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 1999. The most important factors affecting decoupling elasticity of economic growth and carbon emission are economic growth decoupling elasticity and energy intensity decoupling elasticity respectively.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F205;F127
本文编号：2272598
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, people pay more and more attention to the environmental problems. A large amount of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming. At present, the focus of greenhouse gas emission control is to reduce carbon emissions from energy consumption. Reducing carbon emissions, developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. As the largest carbon emitter in the world, our government announced in 2010 that by 2020, the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 50 lower than that of 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emission in China. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the energy balance table of Jiangsu Province over the years and the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, this paper first measures the total carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 and the carbon emissions from industrial sectors, then separately from the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure. Energy structure, compared with other countries in four aspects of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is increasing year by year, in which the carbon emissions of the secondary industry account for the absolute proportion; the energy consumption is still dominated by coal; the intensity of carbon emissions shows a downward trend and is superior to that of the whole country. In this paper, the factors influencing carbon emission in Jiangsu Province are analyzed by LMDI factor decomposition method from six aspects: economic development effect, industrial structure effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, carbon intensity effect and population scale effect. The results show that economic growth is the main driving factor of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, and the decrease of energy intensity is the most important factor to restrain carbon emissions. In this paper, the long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is studied by using unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and EKC curve. The results show that the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is inversely N-shaped. Based on the average annual growth rate of GDP in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011, it can be further determined that Jiangsu Province is in the process of increasing total carbon emissions. The early stages of a slowdown in growth. In this paper, an extended decoupling model based on Taoio decoupling index is constructed, and the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied. The results show that there is a strong decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 1999. The most important factors affecting decoupling elasticity of economic growth and carbon emission are economic growth decoupling elasticity and energy intensity decoupling elasticity respectively.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F205;F127
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