移民汇款对母国经济增长影响的研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 16:40
【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,随着经济全球化的发展,国际间移民汇款的流动愈来愈活跃,移民汇款逐渐成为发展中国家一项非常重要的资本来源,是仅次于直接投资的第二大资本流动。移民汇款规模的增大,引起了国际社会和学者的关注与研究。然而目前国内关于移民汇款与母国经济增长关系之间的研究较少,没有针对中国移民汇款对经济增长作用进行系统的剖析。本文在前人基础上从理论和实证两方面对移民汇款对母国经济增长的机制和作用进行分析。 理论方面,本文分别从资本积累、劳动力增长、资本积累效率和实际汇率这四个渠道入手,厘清移民汇款对母国经济增长的作用机理。 实证方面,本文先将发展中国家作为研究对象,检验移民汇款与发展中国家之间的经济增长关系,通过引入金融发展变量,验证发展中国家的移民汇款是否通过促进本国金融发展影响经济的增长。然后本文以中国作为个体研究对象,研究中国移民汇款与经济增长之间的关系。在这部分,首先是通过构建影响移民汇款决定因素模型,分析影响中国移民汇款的因素；接着从简化式入手,通过协整方程探究移民汇款与中国经济增长之间的长期关系；最后引入移民汇款与实际汇率模型,分析移民汇款是否会引发实际汇率升值,从而带来“荷兰病”问题,影响经济的增长。 本文的主要结论为：1、在本文的样本中,移民汇款会引起发展中国家经济的衰减,但是在不同地区移民汇款对经济增长产生的影响不同。2、中国移民汇款具有逆周期性,但自私动机是影响移民汇款的主要原因。3、移民汇款在长期中会促进中国经济的增长。4、移民汇款的流入会引发实际汇率的升值,但升值效应在1998年之后有所缩减。移民汇款的流入会产生资源转移效应,不可贸易部门产出增加,可贸易部门产出减少。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the development of economic globalization, the flow of international migrant remittances has become more and more active, and migrant remittances have gradually become a very important source of capital for developing countries. It is the second largest capital flow after direct investment. The increase in the scale of migrant remittances has attracted the attention and research of the international community and scholars. However, there are few studies on the relationship between migrant remittances and the economic growth of home countries, and there is no systematic analysis of the effect of Chinese migrant remittances on economic growth. On the basis of predecessors, this paper analyzes the mechanism and effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home countries from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Theoretically, this paper starts with the four channels of capital accumulation, labor force growth, capital accumulation efficiency and real exchange rate, and clarifies the mechanism of the effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home country. In the empirical aspect, this paper first takes the developing countries as the research object, tests the relationship between the migrant remittances and the economic growth of the developing countries, and introduces the financial development variables. Test whether migrant remittances from developing countries affect economic growth by promoting their own financial development. Then this paper takes China as an individual research object to study the relationship between Chinese migrant remittances and economic growth. In this part, first of all, by constructing the determinant factor model of migrant remittances, the paper analyzes the factors that affect Chinese migrant remittances, and then explores the long-term relationship between migrant remittances and China's economic growth through cointegration equation. Finally, the paper introduces the model of migrant remittance and real exchange rate, and analyzes whether the migrant remittance will lead to the appreciation of real exchange rate, which will bring about the problem of "Dutch disease" and affect the economic growth. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, in the sample of this paper, migrant remittances will cause economic decline in developing countries, but the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth is different in different regions. 2. But selfish motivation is the main reason for affecting migrant remittances. 3. In the long run, migrant remittances will promote the growth of Chinese economy. 4. The inflow of migrant remittances will lead to the appreciation of the real exchange rate, but the effect of appreciation will be reduced after 1998. The inflow of migrant remittances has a resource transfer effect, non-tradable sector output increases and tradable sector output decreases.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1
本文编号：2273141
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the development of economic globalization, the flow of international migrant remittances has become more and more active, and migrant remittances have gradually become a very important source of capital for developing countries. It is the second largest capital flow after direct investment. The increase in the scale of migrant remittances has attracted the attention and research of the international community and scholars. However, there are few studies on the relationship between migrant remittances and the economic growth of home countries, and there is no systematic analysis of the effect of Chinese migrant remittances on economic growth. On the basis of predecessors, this paper analyzes the mechanism and effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home countries from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Theoretically, this paper starts with the four channels of capital accumulation, labor force growth, capital accumulation efficiency and real exchange rate, and clarifies the mechanism of the effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home country. In the empirical aspect, this paper first takes the developing countries as the research object, tests the relationship between the migrant remittances and the economic growth of the developing countries, and introduces the financial development variables. Test whether migrant remittances from developing countries affect economic growth by promoting their own financial development. Then this paper takes China as an individual research object to study the relationship between Chinese migrant remittances and economic growth. In this part, first of all, by constructing the determinant factor model of migrant remittances, the paper analyzes the factors that affect Chinese migrant remittances, and then explores the long-term relationship between migrant remittances and China's economic growth through cointegration equation. Finally, the paper introduces the model of migrant remittance and real exchange rate, and analyzes whether the migrant remittance will lead to the appreciation of real exchange rate, which will bring about the problem of "Dutch disease" and affect the economic growth. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, in the sample of this paper, migrant remittances will cause economic decline in developing countries, but the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth is different in different regions. 2. But selfish motivation is the main reason for affecting migrant remittances. 3. In the long run, migrant remittances will promote the growth of Chinese economy. 4. The inflow of migrant remittances will lead to the appreciation of the real exchange rate, but the effect of appreciation will be reduced after 1998. The inflow of migrant remittances has a resource transfer effect, non-tradable sector output increases and tradable sector output decreases.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1
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相关期刊论文 前2条
1 韦德·唐纳德·普福;龙清江;王爱松;;越南国际汇款的决定因素及其对家庭福利的影响[J];国际社会科学杂志(中文版);2010年04期
2 梁在;诸冈秀树;赵慧英;;国际移民与发展:以中国为例[J];中国劳动经济学;2006年03期
，本文编号：2273141
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